MODELING SHOWS MINNESOTA’S CLIMATE POLICIES WILL CUT EMISSIONS 8 PERCENT, BUT ADDITIONAL POLICIES NEEDED TO LIMIT WARMING TO 1.5°C

The report finds that Minnesota's business-as-usual scenario would only reduce emissions by 8% by 2050, failing to meet state goals or 1.5°C targets. While a proposed 100% clean electricity standard by 2040 could reduce emissions by 19% below the reference scenario, a more comprehensive '1.5°C Scenario'—incorporating aggressive electrification of buildings and transport, industrial fuel switching, and land management—could cut statewide emissions by over 75% by 2050. This deep decarbonization pathway is projected to add $11 billion annually to the state's economy and create 39,000 additional job-years by 2050, while avoiding 700 premature deaths and 20,000 asthma incidents annually.

• Minnesota's current trajectory under a Business-As-Usual (BAU) Scenario is projected to reduce emissions by approximately 8% from the 2019 baseline by 2050, driven mainly by electric vehicle sales and changes in power composition.
• A proposed statewide 100% clean electricity standard by 2040 is estimated to reduce economy-wide emissions by 19% compared to the Reference Scenario and prevent 9,000 asthma attacks by 2040.
• The '1.5°C Scenario' policy bundle would reduce statewide emissions by about 50% from the 2005 baseline by 2030 and more than 75% by 2050.
• To achieve the 1.5°C Scenario, the electricity sector would need to reach near-zero emissions by 2035, supported by 40 GW of solar and 22 GW of wind power by 2050.
• Transportation decarbonization in the 1.5°C Scenario requires 100% of new passenger car and SUV sales to be all-electric by 2035 and 100% of new freight truck sales to be zero-emission by 2045, alongside a 20% reduction in passenger car travel by 2050.
• Building sector emissions could be reduced by 90% below BAU levels by 2040 through a sales standard requiring fully electric new building equipment by 2030, combined with retrofits and efficiency improvements.
• The 1.5°C Scenario is projected to generate significant economic and health benefits, including 39,000 additional job-years and an $11 billion annual increase to the state's economy by 2050, while avoiding 700 premature deaths and 20,000 asthma incidents annually.

APA

ASHMOORE, O., ORVIS, R., SUBIN, Z., & SHAH, A. (2021). MODELING SHOWS MINNESOTA’S CLIMATE POLICIES WILL CUT EMISSIONS 8 PERCENT, BUT ADDITIONAL POLICIES NEEDED TO LIMIT WARMING TO 1.5°C. Energy Innovation. https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Minnesota-Energy-Policy-Simulator-Research-Note.pdf

Chicago

ASHMOORE, OLIVIA, ROBBIE ORVIS, ZACK SUBIN, and AMAR SHAH. MODELING SHOWS MINNESOTA’S CLIMATE POLICIES WILL CUT EMISSIONS 8 PERCENT, BUT ADDITIONAL POLICIES NEEDED TO LIMIT WARMING TO 1.5°C. Energy Innovation, 2021. https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Minnesota-Energy-Policy-Simulator-Research-Note.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=ASHMOORE |first1=OLIVIA |last2=ORVIS |first2=ROBBIE |last3=SUBIN |first3=ZACK |last4=SHAH |first4=AMAR |title=MODELING SHOWS MINNESOTA’S CLIMATE POLICIES WILL CUT EMISSIONS 8 PERCENT, BUT ADDITIONAL POLICIES NEEDED TO LIMIT WARMING TO 1.5°C |publisher=Energy Innovation |date=February 2021 |url=https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Minnesota-Energy-Policy-Simulator-Research-Note.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{ashmoore2021modeling, author = {ASHMOORE, OLIVIA and ORVIS, ROBBIE and SUBIN, ZACK and SHAH, AMAR}, title = {{MODELING SHOWS MINNESOTA’S CLIMATE POLICIES WILL CUT EMISSIONS 8 PERCENT, BUT ADDITIONAL POLICIES NEEDED TO LIMIT WARMING TO 1.5°C}}, institution = {Energy Innovation}, year = {2021}, month = feb, url = {https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Minnesota-Energy-Policy-Simulator-Research-Note.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }