Climate 2030 Blueprint

The document outlines modifications to the EIA's AEO 2008 NEMS model to better reflect actual construction costs, updated tax credits, and state renewable electricity standards. It provides detailed capital cost and performance assumptions for various energy technologies, including wind, solar, geothermal, coal, natural gas, and nuclear power. The authors argue that EIA costs often underestimate actual project expenses, particularly for nuclear and coal plants. The text also defines a 'Blueprint Case' featuring a national renewable electricity standard ramping up to 40% by 2030 and a federal demonstration program for coal with carbon capture and storage. Finally, it assesses the technical potential of various renewable resources across the U.S.

• The Union of Concerned Scientists adjusted the EIA's capital costs to account for real construction and commodity cost increases of 50 to 70 percent since 2000, noting that EIA's modest 15 percent increase was "far below the costs of actual projects".
• For land-based wind, the document assumes current overnight capital costs of $2,250 per kW in 2007 dollars for 2009, reflecting a 60 percent increase between 2003 and 2008.
• The analysis identifies significant risks for nuclear power construction costs, noting that the U.S. supply chain has shrunk from 400 suppliers and 900 certificate holders two decades ago to 80 and 200 respectively.
• The 'Blueprint Case' proposes a national renewable electricity standard (RES) starting at 4 percent of projected electricity sales in 2010 and increasing to 40 percent by 2030.
• The document estimates the technical potential for land-based wind power in the United States at more than 8,000 GW, with shallow offshore wind at 2,000 GW and deep offshore wind at 3,000 GW.
• For pulverized coal plants, the document assumes current overnight capital costs of $2,700 per kW in 2009, stating that actual project costs for 2010-2013 are "two to three times higher" than many common studies.
• The analysis assumes a federal program providing $9 billion to support eight new full-scale advanced coal IGCC with carbon capture and storage (CCS) demonstration projects between 2013 and 2016.
• Geothermal resource potential is estimated at 126,000 MW nationally, including 89,000 MW in the western United States and 37,000 MW from co-produced sites in the Southeast and Southern Plains states.
• The document projects that state renewable electricity standards will result in 71,270 MW of new capacity by 2025, though it assumes a three-year delay for states with implementation problems, including California, New York, and all New England states.

APA

Union of Concerned Scientists (n.d.). Climate 2030 Blueprint. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/climate2030-app-d-electricity.pdf

Chicago

Union of Concerned Scientists. Climate 2030 Blueprint. n.d. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/climate2030-app-d-electricity.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Union of Concerned Scientists |title=Climate 2030 Blueprint |url=https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/climate2030-app-d-electricity.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{unionofconcernedscientistsndclimate, author = {{Union of Concerned Scientists}}, title = {{Climate 2030 Blueprint}}, institution = {Union of Concerned Scientists}, url = {https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/climate2030-app-d-electricity.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }