Climate 2030 Blueprint

The report outlines the assumptions used to model transportation emissions reductions by 2030, including fuel economy targets, the adoption of plug-in hybrids, and the deployment of cellulosic ethanol. It describes adjustments made to the AEO 2008 model to reflect more aggressive efficiency standards and the impacts of smart growth policies.

• The Blueprint sets light-duty vehicle efficiency standards equivalent to 42 miles per gallon (mpg) by 2020 and 55 mpg by 2030, although modeling suggests a 2030 efficiency equivalent of 52 mpg due to automakers paying fines to opt out of standards.
• For plug-in hybrid vehicles, the model assumes a 30-mile all-electric range and that 50 percent of vehicle miles traveled (VMT) are all-electric. The incremental cost of a plug-in car compared to a hybrid-electric vehicle is projected to drop from $12,000 in 2010 to $3,400 in 2030.
• Medium- and heavy-duty vehicle efficiency targets are set at 8 mpg by 2020 and 9.5 mpg by 2030 for heavy-duty vehicles, and 11 mpg by 2020 and 16 mpg by 2030 for medium-duty vehicles.
• The model assumes that replacing HFC-134a with HFC-152a and using variable-speed compressor motors in vehicle air-conditioning systems can reduce CO2 equivalent emissions by 8 grams per mile at a cost of $50 per vehicle.
• To account for land-use changes, the model assumes food-based biofuels provide no net carbon benefit compared to gasoline, while biofuels from waste or energy crops achieve a 100 percent reduction in carbon emissions.
• Smart growth strategies are modeled by reducing the annual growth rate of light-duty VMT to 0.9 percent (down from 1.4 percent in the Reference case) and shifting 2.5 percent of freight travel from trucks to rail by 2030.

APA

Union of Concerned Scientists (n.d.). Climate 2030 Blueprint. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/climate2030-app-e-transportation.pdf

Chicago

Union of Concerned Scientists. Climate 2030 Blueprint. n.d. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/climate2030-app-e-transportation.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Union of Concerned Scientists |title=Climate 2030 Blueprint |url=https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/climate2030-app-e-transportation.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{unionofconcernedscientistsndclimate, author = {{Union of Concerned Scientists}}, title = {{Climate 2030 Blueprint}}, institution = {Union of Concerned Scientists}, url = {https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/climate2030-app-e-transportation.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }