MODELING SHOWS VIRGINIA CLEAN ECONOMY ACT WILL CUT STATEWIDE EMISSIONS 35 PERCENT, BUT ADDITIONAL POLICIES ARE REQUIRED TO LIMIT WARMING TO 1.5°C

This research note uses the Virginia Energy Policy Simulator (EPS) to evaluate the impact of the Virginia Clean Economy Act (VCEA) and proposes additional policy pathways to align the state with a 1.5°C warming limit. While the VCEA significantly decarbonizes the power sector, the authors argue that comprehensive policies across transportation, buildings, and industry are necessary to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050.

• The Virginia Clean Economy Act (VCEA) is projected to result in a nearly 100 percent reduction in power sector emissions and a 35 percent reduction in economy-wide emissions by 2050 compared to business-as-usual projections.
• The VCEA mandates specific decarbonization timelines for investor-owned utilities, requiring Dominion to reach 100 percent carbon-free electricity by 2045 and Appalachian Power by 2050. It also requires the closure of nearly all coal-fired power plants by 2024 and most natural gas, biomass, and petroleum-fired plants by 2045, while establishing targets for 5,200 MW of offshore wind by 2034 and 3,100 MW of energy storage by 2035.
• To limit warming to 1.5°C, the authors propose an illustrative pathway that would reduce emissions by 63 percent below 2005 levels by 2030 and reach net-zero before 2050. This scenario includes requiring all new passenger cars to be electric by 2035, all new trucks by 2045, and all newly sold building equipment to be electric by 2030.
• The proposed 1.5°C pathway is projected to provide significant economic and health benefits by 2050, including an annual GDP increase of more than $2.6 billion, the generation of over 11,000 job-years, and the avoidance of more than 900 asthma attacks per year.

APA

ORVIS, R., & SUBIN, Z. (2021). MODELING SHOWS VIRGINIA CLEAN ECONOMY ACT WILL CUT STATEWIDE EMISSIONS 35 PERCENT, BUT ADDITIONAL POLICIES ARE REQUIRED TO LIMIT WARMING TO 1.5°C. Energy Innovation. https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Virginia-Energy-Policy-Simulator-Research-Note_JAN_UPDATE.pdf

Chicago

ORVIS, ROBBIE, and ZACK SUBIN. MODELING SHOWS VIRGINIA CLEAN ECONOMY ACT WILL CUT STATEWIDE EMISSIONS 35 PERCENT, BUT ADDITIONAL POLICIES ARE REQUIRED TO LIMIT WARMING TO 1.5°C. Energy Innovation, 2021. https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Virginia-Energy-Policy-Simulator-Research-Note_JAN_UPDATE.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=ORVIS |first1=ROBBIE |last2=SUBIN |first2=ZACK |title=MODELING SHOWS VIRGINIA CLEAN ECONOMY ACT WILL CUT STATEWIDE EMISSIONS 35 PERCENT, BUT ADDITIONAL POLICIES ARE REQUIRED TO LIMIT WARMING TO 1.5°C |publisher=Energy Innovation |date=January 2021 |url=https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Virginia-Energy-Policy-Simulator-Research-Note_JAN_UPDATE.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{orvis2021modeling, author = {ORVIS, ROBBIE and SUBIN, ZACK}, title = {{MODELING SHOWS VIRGINIA CLEAN ECONOMY ACT WILL CUT STATEWIDE EMISSIONS 35 PERCENT, BUT ADDITIONAL POLICIES ARE REQUIRED TO LIMIT WARMING TO 1.5°C}}, institution = {Energy Innovation}, year = {2021}, month = jan, url = {https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Virginia-Energy-Policy-Simulator-Research-Note_JAN_UPDATE.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }