MODELING SHOWS VIRGINIA CLEAN ECONOMY ACT WILL CUT STATEWIDE EMISSIONS 35 PERCENT, BUT ADDITIONAL POLICIES ARE REQUIRED TO LIMIT WARMING TO 1.5°C

The Virginia Clean Economy Act (VCEA) is projected to nearly eliminate power sector emissions and reduce economy-wide emissions by 35% by 2050 compared to business-as-usual. However, to meet a 1.5°C warming pathway, the document argues that Virginia must implement further policies across transportation, buildings, industry, and land use. A proposed '1.5°C Pathway Scenario' involving aggressive electrification and clean energy standards could achieve net-zero emissions before 2050, while generating over 11,000 job-years and increasing annual GDP by more than $2.6 billion by 2050.

• The Virginia Clean Economy Act (VCEA) is projected to result in a nearly 100 percent reduction in power sector emissions and a 35 percent reduction in economy-wide emissions by 2050 when compared to business-as-usual projections.
• The VCEA mandates specific decarbonization targets for utilities, requiring Dominion to reach 100 percent carbon-free electricity by 2045 and Appalachian Power by 2050, while requiring the closure of nearly all coal-fired plants by 2024.
• To align with a 1.5°C warming limit, the document proposes a scenario including a mandate for all new passenger cars to be electric by 2035, all new trucks by 2045, and all newly sold building equipment to be electric by 2030.
• An illustrative 1.5°C Pathway Scenario would reduce emissions by 63 percent below 2005 levels by 2030 and reach net-zero emissions before 2050.
• The proposed 1.5°C scenario is projected to provide significant economic and health benefits by 2050, including an annual GDP increase of over $2.6 billion, the generation of more than 11,000 job-years, and the avoidance of over 900 asthma attacks per year.

APA

ORVIS, R., & SUBIN, Z. (2021). MODELING SHOWS VIRGINIA CLEAN ECONOMY ACT WILL CUT STATEWIDE EMISSIONS 35 PERCENT, BUT ADDITIONAL POLICIES ARE REQUIRED TO LIMIT WARMING TO 1.5°C. Energy Innovation. https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Virginia-Energy-Policy-Simulator-Research-Note_JAN_UPDATE.pdf

Chicago

ORVIS, ROBBIE, and ZACK SUBIN. MODELING SHOWS VIRGINIA CLEAN ECONOMY ACT WILL CUT STATEWIDE EMISSIONS 35 PERCENT, BUT ADDITIONAL POLICIES ARE REQUIRED TO LIMIT WARMING TO 1.5°C. Energy Innovation, 2021. https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Virginia-Energy-Policy-Simulator-Research-Note_JAN_UPDATE.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=ORVIS |first1=ROBBIE |last2=SUBIN |first2=ZACK |title=MODELING SHOWS VIRGINIA CLEAN ECONOMY ACT WILL CUT STATEWIDE EMISSIONS 35 PERCENT, BUT ADDITIONAL POLICIES ARE REQUIRED TO LIMIT WARMING TO 1.5°C |publisher=Energy Innovation |date=January 2021 |url=https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Virginia-Energy-Policy-Simulator-Research-Note_JAN_UPDATE.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{orvis2021modeling, author = {ORVIS, ROBBIE and SUBIN, ZACK}, title = {{MODELING SHOWS VIRGINIA CLEAN ECONOMY ACT WILL CUT STATEWIDE EMISSIONS 35 PERCENT, BUT ADDITIONAL POLICIES ARE REQUIRED TO LIMIT WARMING TO 1.5°C}}, institution = {Energy Innovation}, year = {2021}, month = jan, url = {https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Virginia-Energy-Policy-Simulator-Research-Note_JAN_UPDATE.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }