U.S. ENERGY POLICY SIMULATOR VERSION 4.0

The U.S. Energy Policy Simulator (EPS) version 4.0 incorporates the impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA), projecting that the U.S. is on track to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 37 percent below 2005 levels by 2030. This trajectory is primarily driven by the electricity sector, where the clean electricity share is expected to rise to 70 percent by 2030, and the transportation sector through increased zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) adoption. The updated model features a redesigned electricity module with hourly dispatch, new power plant types including carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) and hydrogen plants, and improved tracking of ZEV and industrial costs.

• The U.S. is projected to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions to 37 percent below 2005 levels by 2030, a significant increase from the 17 percent reduction outlook projected in 2021 and the 23 percent reduction trajectory prior to the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and other recent policies.
• The electricity sector is the primary driver of emissions reductions in the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, with the share of clean electricity expected to increase from approximately 40 percent today to 70 percent by 2030, largely due to IRA clean electricity tax credits.
• Transportation is the second most significant factor in economy-wide emissions reductions, with zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) forecast to make up 53 percent of light-duty passenger vehicle sales and 15 percent of all light-duty passenger vehicles on the road by 2030.
• Under the BAU scenario, the greenhouse gas emissions intensity of GDP is projected to fall to 140 grams of CO2e per $1 in 2030, down from 330 g CO2e per $1 in 2005.
• The EPS 4.0 includes an NDC scenario to meet the U.S. Nationally Determined Commitment of reducing emissions 50 to 52 percent below 2005 levels by 2030 and reaching net zero by 2050, requiring additional policies in the industry, buildings, and land use sectors.

APA

Mahajan, M., & Orvis, R. (2024). U.S. ENERGY POLICY SIMULATOR VERSION 4.0. Energy Innovation. https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Energy-Policy-Simulator-4.0.pdf

Chicago

Mahajan, Megan, and Robbie Orvis. U.S. ENERGY POLICY SIMULATOR VERSION 4.0. Energy Innovation, 2024. https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Energy-Policy-Simulator-4.0.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Mahajan |first1=Megan |last2=Orvis |first2=Robbie |title=U.S. ENERGY POLICY SIMULATOR VERSION 4.0 |publisher=Energy Innovation |date=July 2024 |url=https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Energy-Policy-Simulator-4.0.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{mahajan2024energy, author = {Mahajan, Megan and Orvis, Robbie}, title = {{U.S. ENERGY POLICY SIMULATOR VERSION 4.0}}, institution = {Energy Innovation}, year = {2024}, month = jul, url = {https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Energy-Policy-Simulator-4.0.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }