U.S. ENERGY POLICY SIMULATOR VERSION 4.0

Energy Innovation has released version 4.0 of the United States Energy Policy Simulator (EPS), an open-source model updated to incorporate the impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA). The updated model features a rebuilt electricity sector with hourly dispatch and expanded power plant types to better analyze the financial incentives and emissions trajectories of the U.S. energy system through 2050.

• The U.S. is projected to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 37 percent below 2005 levels by 2030 under the updated business-as-usual (BAU) scenario. This represents a significant acceleration compared to the 2021 outlook of 17 percent and the pre-IRA trajectory of 23 percent.
• Emissions reductions in the BAU scenario are primarily driven by the electricity sector, where clean electricity's share is expected to rise from approximately 40 percent currently to 70 percent by 2030, largely due to IRA tax credits.
• Transportation is the second largest contributor to economy-wide emissions reductions in the BAU scenario. Zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) are forecast to make up 53 percent of light-duty passenger vehicle sales and 15 percent of all light-duty passenger vehicles on the road by 2030.
• The BAU scenario projects more limited emissions changes in other sectors: industrial emissions are expected to decline slightly through 2030, building emissions are projected to remain roughly constant, and agricultural emissions may continue to increase due to product demand.
• EPS 4.0 introduces significant technical upgrades, including a redesigned electricity module with hourly demand and dispatch for six representative days, the addition of seven new power plant types (bringing the total to 24), and the ability to model carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) retrofits.

APA

Mahajan, M., & Orvis, R. (2024). U.S. ENERGY POLICY SIMULATOR VERSION 4.0. Energy Innovation. https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Energy-Policy-Simulator-4.0.pdf

Chicago

Mahajan, Megan, and Robbie Orvis. U.S. ENERGY POLICY SIMULATOR VERSION 4.0. Energy Innovation, 2024. https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Energy-Policy-Simulator-4.0.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Mahajan |first1=Megan |last2=Orvis |first2=Robbie |title=U.S. ENERGY POLICY SIMULATOR VERSION 4.0 |publisher=Energy Innovation |date=July 2024 |url=https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Energy-Policy-Simulator-4.0.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{mahajan2024energy, author = {Mahajan, Megan and Orvis, Robbie}, title = {{U.S. ENERGY POLICY SIMULATOR VERSION 4.0}}, institution = {Energy Innovation}, year = {2024}, month = jul, url = {https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Energy-Policy-Simulator-4.0.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }