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The report argues that the proposed Turkish ETS is fundamentally weak due to its reliance on an intensity-based cap, broad unconditional free allocation, and the use of offsets. These design choices are expected to prevent the system from generating a meaningful carbon price signal, thereby failing to drive emissions reductions aligned with the Paris Agreement and leaving Turkish exporters exposed to significant CBAM fees. The authors recommend transitioning to an absolute declining cap, phasing out offsets, and shifting toward auctioning to retain climate revenues domestically.

The report finds that while total emissions from 25 major emitters may peak by 2026, current policies are insufficient to meet the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C goal. Fifteen countries are likely on track to meet their 2030 unconditional NDC targets, while nine are off track, including the US, UK, and Japan. Projections for the US have worsened due to policy rollbacks, and eight countries are already projected to miss their 2035 unconditional NDC targets.

The briefing reports that while new coal mine capacity additions declined by 46% in 2024, approximately 2,270 Mtpa of new capacity remains under development globally. This pipeline is heavily concentrated in China, India, Australia, and Russia, which together account for nearly 90% of proposed developments. The document highlights that if fully realized, these projects could emit 15.7 million tonnes of methane annually, significantly hindering the achievement of the Paris Agreement and IEA Net Zero scenarios. It emphasizes the prevalence of 'greenfield' projects and the high methane intensity of underground and metallurgical coal mines.

The UK government has announced a new subsidy package for Drax Power Station for 2027-2031 that is expected to reduce its electricity generation by 55% and lower its annual emissions to approximately 5.8 MtCO2e. While the strike price for the new Contract for Difference (CfD) mechanism increases to £113/MWh, the overall subsidy is estimated to fall to around £1.2 million per day. The report highlights that Drax remains the UK's largest emitting power station and relies heavily on imported wood pellets, primarily from North America. It argues that delivering 'Clean Power 2030' through wind, solar, and energy storage will further reduce the need for biomass and mitigate the risks associated with delayed and expensive Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) projects.

Indonesia's RUKN 2024-2060 projects a coal capacity increase of 26.8 GW by 2031, primarily driven by over 20 GW of new captive coal plants for mineral processing. This expansion is expected to push coal generation to a peak of 494 TWh in 2037, contradicting the country's Low Carbon Scenario and JETP targets. The report highlights that new captive coal is more expensive than grid-connected coal and renewables, while lacking the emissions reporting and trading requirements imposed on the grid. It recommends reassessing captive coal plans, enforcing stricter emissions standards, and accelerating renewable energy deployment to avoid carbon lock-in.

Rwanda's NDC 3.0 sets an ambitious target to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions by 53% by 2035 compared to a business-as-usual scenario, integrating Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) for the first time. The plan prioritizes adaptation across eight sectors, including agriculture and water resources, and establishes a dedicated loss and damage response mechanism. Implementing these goals requires an estimated USD 12 billion, with USD 5 billion for mitigation and USD 7 billion for adaptation.

The U.S. Energy Policy Simulator (EPS) version 4.0 incorporates the impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA), projecting that the U.S. is on track to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 37 percent below 2005 levels by 2030. This trajectory is primarily driven by the electricity sector, where the clean electricity share is expected to rise to 70 percent by 2030, and the transportation sector through increased zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) adoption. The updated model features a redesigned electricity module with hourly dispatch, new power plant types including carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) and hydrogen plants, and improved tracking of ZEV and industrial costs.

The Climate Action Tracker (CAT) argues that current 2030 climate targets and policies are insufficient, projecting end-of-century warming of 2.5°C to 2.7°C. To maintain the 1.5°C goal, the document asserts that governments must enter 'emergency mode,' peaking global emissions before 2025 and halving them by 2030. It outlines four essential elements for 2035 NDCs: ambition based on sectoral benchmarks, scaled-up climate finance for developing nations, credibility through the elimination of fossil fuel subsidies and exploration, and transparency via absolute economy-wide targets that separate land-use sinks and carbon removals from domestic reductions.

China's steel industry is dominated by emissions-intensive BF-BOF technology, which accounted for almost 94% of industry emissions in 2022. While the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) set a target of 15% EAF production by 2025, the document argues that China already possesses the capacity (151 mtpa) to meet this goal if utilization rates are increased. Achieving a more ambitious 20% EAF target by 2025 could reduce industry emissions by 217 mtpa CO2, nearly 11% of 2022 levels. Key obstacles to this transition include scrap steel distribution and power supply stability, though the growth of scrap availability and offshore wind energy provides opportunities for decarbonization.

Ember's analysis indicates that Whitehaven Coal Limited could release over 1.2 million tonnes of methane by 2050, with emissions potentially doubling by 2030 due to planned expansions. The report highlights severe discrepancies in reporting, noting that the Narrabri mine's actual emissions have been nearly five times higher than final EIS estimates. Ember argues that Whitehaven's use of internal emission factors for open-cut mines—which are often significantly lower than Australian averages—leads to underreporting. The report recommends third-party verification, improved transparency, and a 75% reduction in portfolio-wide methane emissions by 2030 to align with 1.5 degree pathways.

The report details a surge in EU gas infrastructure projects, including 30 fast-tracked LNG terminals and extensive pipeline networks, driven by the 'gas panic' after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. It warns that the proposed 227.2 bcm/y of additional LNG capacity would increase the EU's maximum import capacity by 136%, potentially costing €53.5 billion and emitting up to 950 million tons of CO2 annually. The document argues that these uncoordinated efforts, led by countries like Germany, Greece, and Italy, conflict with the EU's 'Fit for 55' climate goals and the European Climate Law. Additionally, it critiques the 'European Hydrogen Backbone' initiative, stating that repurposing methane pipelines for hydrogen is technically risky and economically unjustified, further entrenching fossil fuel use.

The report warns that massive LNG expansion and a lack of ambitious national climate targets are jeopardizing the 1.5°C warming limit. It highlights that current 2030 targets lead to 2.4°C of warming and that LNG capacity under construction could increase emissions by over 1.9 GtCO2e per year by 2030 above Net Zero scenarios. While some policy progress is noted in the US, China, and the EU, international climate finance remains insufficient, and the phase-down of coal is largely being ignored by major emitters.

Projected emissions for the analysed major economies under current policies (36.2-41.8 GtCO2e by 2030) remain far above the 43% reduction from 2019 levels required by the Paris Agreement. While average per capita emissions are projected to decrease slightly from 9.6 tCO2e in 2015 to approximately 8.8-8.9 tCO2e by 2030, significant disparities exist, with emissions per capita expected to more than double in Türkiye and Viet Nam while halving in Australia, Canada, the United States, and the United Kingdom. Only eleven countries are currently on track to meet their latest NDC targets, with Brazil and Indonesia moving off track due to increased land-use emission projections.

The report argues that the UK's strategy to expand North Sea oil and gas production is incompatible with the Paris Agreement and the UK's own net-zero targets. It highlights that the 'Climate Compatibility Checkpoint' used by the government is insufficient and fails to account for the 'production gap' or emissions from burning fuels. The document details several major fields, such as Rosebank and Clair South, whose projected lifetime emissions would significantly exceed the UK's carbon budgets. It further debunks claims that domestic production lowers consumer bills or meaningfully reduces import dependency, noting that the majority of gas imports come from Norway.

The briefing concludes that Shell's strategy is not on track to meet the 1.5°C climate goal, predicting the company will exceed its allocated carbon budget by 2034. Despite a net-zero ambition for 2050, the analysis finds that Shell's short-term plans rely on unrealistic offsets and continued investment in oil and gas expansion. The report highlights that Shell remains a top global hydrocarbon developer, with approximately 90% of its 2022 CAPEX allocated to fossil fuels, which contradicts the deep emission cuts required for 1.5°C alignment.

The report evaluates three emissions reduction pathways for EU heavy-duty vehicles, concluding that a combination of electrification, energy efficiency, and biofuels is necessary to reach ambitious targets. While the EU's 'Fit for 55' plan suggests a modest 4% reduction by 2030, a linear path to net-zero by 2050 would require a 35% reduction by 2030. The authors estimate that combining all available measures—including a 50% electric share of new truck registrations—would yield a 24% reduction by 2030, still falling short of the most aggressive linear pathway.

The report analyzes the impact of different electric vehicle (EV) penetration scenarios in China—Pre-COVID-19, Current Policies, and 100% BEV—across two electricity decarbonization pathways. It concludes that while China's post-COVID-19 policies for new energy vehicles (NEVs) are positive, significant emission reductions in the light-duty vehicle (LDV) sector are only possible if coupled with a transformational shift to a low-carbon electricity sector. Without power sector decarbonization, even ambitious BEV scenarios would only reduce emissions by 9% to 13% by 2050 compared to pre-pandemic levels. To reach carbon neutrality by 2060, the report argues that a 100% BEV vehicle stock and a fully decarbonized power sector are required, which could reduce LDV emissions to zero and transport sector emissions by 790 MtCO2/yr by 2050.

The report argues that a coal-free Czechia by 2030 is feasible through a least-cost pathway focused on rapid expansion of wind and solar power, supplemented by flexible gas generation and large-scale heat pumps. It estimates that this transition would reduce power sector emissions by 85% and create approximately 45,000 direct jobs, while requiring €11bn in power sector capital investment.

The report argues that the plastic lifecycle is a significant and growing driver of climate change, potentially consuming 1013 percent of the remaining carbon budget by 2050. It details emissions from fracking, steam cracking, and incineration, while highlighting the emerging threat of microplastics interfering with the ocean's carbon sink. The authors conclude that only a dramatic reduction in plastic production and a transition to zero-waste systems can mitigate these impacts.

The document details the costs and benefits of transitioning to clean transportation in Connecticut. By 2050, a total investment of $51.5 billion in electrification, fuel efficiency, and low-carbon fuels is projected to generate $72.5 billion in returns, resulting in a net benefit of over $21 billion. These investments would lead to 149.9 million metric tons of avoided CO2 and a reduction of 15.5 billion gallons of fossil-based liquid fuels.