Progress of major emitters towards climate targets 2025 update

The NewClimate Institute's 2025 update evaluates the progress of 25 major emitters, representing over 80% of global emissions, toward their climate mitigation targets. The report finds that while total emissions under current policies may peak by 2026, the projected reductions are insufficient to meet the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C goal, which requires a 43% reduction by 2030 compared to 2019 levels.

• Total emissions for the 25 assessed countries under current policies are projected to peak by 2026 at approximately 39.5 GtCO2e. By 2030, aggregated emissions are expected to range between 36.3 and 40.1 GtCO2e, representing a reduction of -6% to +4% compared to 2019 levels. This is insufficient to meet the 1.5°C goal of the Paris Agreement, which necessitates a 43% reduction over the same period.
• The United States has seen an increase in its emissions projections compared to the previous year's report. This shift is attributed to the rollback of several EPA regulations and almost all programs under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).
• Regarding 2030 unconditional NDC targets, 15 countries are likely on track. Nine are clearly on track (Iran, Viet Nam, the Russian Federation, India, Indonesia, Türkiye, Morocco, Ethiopia, and Australia), and six could be on track (China, South Africa, the EU, Mexico, Thailand, and Saudi Arabia). Conversely, nine countries are off track: Colombia, Brazil, the United Kingdom, Canada, the Republic of Korea, Argentina, Japan, the United Arab Emirates, and the USA.
• Of the 14 countries that have submitted or announced a 2035 NDC target as of October 15, 2025, eight are projected to be off track under current policies: Canada, Brazil, Colombia, Ethiopia, Japan, the USA, the United Arab Emirates, and the United Kingdom. Australia, the EU, and Morocco may be on track if emissions follow the lower end of the current policies scenario.
• China's emissions are projected to peak around 2025, followed by a period of stabilization up to 2030, with an overall decrease projected between 2021 and 2035.

APA

NewClimate Institute (2025). Progress of major emitters towards climate targets 2025 update. http://www.newclimate.org/resources/publications/progress-of-major-emitters-towards-climate-targets-2025-update

Chicago

NewClimate Institute. Progress of major emitters towards climate targets 2025 update. 2025. http://www.newclimate.org/resources/publications/progress-of-major-emitters-towards-climate-targets-2025-update.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=NewClimate Institute |title=Progress of major emitters towards climate targets 2025 update |date=7 November 2025 |url=http://www.newclimate.org/resources/publications/progress-of-major-emitters-towards-climate-targets-2025-update |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{newclimateinstitute2025progress, author = {{NewClimate Institute}}, title = {{Progress of major emitters towards climate targets 2025 update}}, institution = {NewClimate Institute}, year = {2025}, month = nov, url = {http://www.newclimate.org/resources/publications/progress-of-major-emitters-towards-climate-targets-2025-update}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }