Progress of major emitters towards climate targets 2025 update

The report finds that while total emissions from 25 major emitters may peak by 2026, current policies are insufficient to meet the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C goal. Fifteen countries are likely on track to meet their 2030 unconditional NDC targets, while nine are off track, including the US, UK, and Japan. Projections for the US have worsened due to policy rollbacks, and eight countries are already projected to miss their 2035 unconditional NDC targets.

• Total emissions from the 25 assessed countries are projected to peak by 2026 at approximately 39.5 GtCO2e. By 2030, emissions are expected to range between 36.3 and 40.1 GtCO2e, representing a reduction of -6% to +4% compared to 2019 levels, which is insufficient to meet the 43% reduction required to limit global warming to 1.5°C.
• Nine countries are currently off track to meet their unconditional 2030 NDC targets: Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Colombia, Japan, the Republic of Korea, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom, and the USA. Conversely, nine countries are clearly on track to meet these targets without additional policies: Australia, Ethiopia, India, Indonesia, Iran, Morocco, the Russian Federation, Türkiye, and Viet Nam.
• Of the 14 countries that have submitted or announced a 2035 NDC target, eight are projected to be off track: Brazil, Canada, Colombia, Ethiopia, Japan, the UAE, the UK, and the USA.
• Emissions projections for the United States have increased compared to the previous year's report, primarily due to the rollback of several EPA regulations and almost all programs under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).

APA

NewClimate Institute (2025). Progress of major emitters towards climate targets 2025 update. http://www.newclimate.org/resources/publications/progress-of-major-emitters-towards-climate-targets-2025-update

Chicago

NewClimate Institute. Progress of major emitters towards climate targets 2025 update. 2025. http://www.newclimate.org/resources/publications/progress-of-major-emitters-towards-climate-targets-2025-update.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=NewClimate Institute |title=Progress of major emitters towards climate targets 2025 update |date=7 November 2025 |url=http://www.newclimate.org/resources/publications/progress-of-major-emitters-towards-climate-targets-2025-update |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{newclimateinstitute2025progress, author = {{NewClimate Institute}}, title = {{Progress of major emitters towards climate targets 2025 update}}, institution = {NewClimate Institute}, year = {2025}, month = nov, url = {http://www.newclimate.org/resources/publications/progress-of-major-emitters-towards-climate-targets-2025-update}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }