Accelerating to zero

This report by the Stockholm Environment Institute analyses the decarbonization potential of the heavy-duty vehicle sector in the EU up to 2030. It evaluates three indicative pathways to reach net-zero emissions by 2050, comparing the EU's 'Fit for 55' plan, an adjusted IEA scenario, and a linear reduction pathway. The authors conclude that while individual measures like electrification, energy efficiency, and biofuels are available, they must be combined to achieve significant reductions, though even a combined approach falls short of the most aggressive linear pathway to zero.

• The report identifies three indicative emissions reduction pathways for the EU-27 to reach net-zero by 2050: a 'Fit for 55' pathway targeting a 4% reduction by 2030, an adjusted IEA global net-zero scenario targeting a 12% reduction by 2030, and a linear pathway to zero emissions by 2050 targeting a 35% reduction by 2030.
• Combining all analyzed emission reduction measures—energy efficiency, battery electric vehicles (BEVs), fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs), and biofuels—would result in a total emissions reduction of 24% by 2030 compared to 2019 levels, which is equivalent to approximately 52 million t CO2eq.
• Vehicle stock renewal is a significant barrier to rapid decarbonization because of long vehicle lifetimes—averaging 13 years for trucks and 11.7 years for buses in the EU—meaning that even ambitious new registration targets take a long time to impact the overall fleet composition.
• The report assumes ambitious new registration targets by 2030: 50% of new heavy-duty trucks and 75% of new buses (including 100% of city buses and 50% of coaches) being electric.
• The current contribution of heavy-duty vehicles to the EU's 'Fit for 55' package is described as small, and the report suggests that the sector has a much higher potential to help the EU meet Paris Agreement targets if action is accelerated.

APA

Xylia, M., Gong, J., Olsson, O., & Johnson, F. X. (2021). Accelerating to zero. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/net-zero-trucking-seireport-10.51414-sei2021.025-1.pdf

Chicago

Xylia, Maria, Jindan Gong, Olle Olsson, and Francis X. Johnson. Accelerating to zero. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2021. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/net-zero-trucking-seireport-10.51414-sei2021.025-1.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Xylia |first1=Maria |last2=Gong |first2=Jindan |last3=Olsson |first3=Olle |last4=Johnson |first4=Francis X. |title=Accelerating to zero |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=November 2021 |url=https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/net-zero-trucking-seireport-10.51414-sei2021.025-1.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{xylia2021accelerating, author = {Xylia, Maria and Gong, Jindan and Olsson, Olle and Johnson, Francis X.}, title = {{Accelerating to zero}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2021}, month = nov, url = {https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/net-zero-trucking-seireport-10.51414-sei2021.025-1.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }