Accelerating to zero

The report evaluates three emissions reduction pathways for EU heavy-duty vehicles, concluding that a combination of electrification, energy efficiency, and biofuels is necessary to reach ambitious targets. While the EU's 'Fit for 55' plan suggests a modest 4% reduction by 2030, a linear path to net-zero by 2050 would require a 35% reduction by 2030. The authors estimate that combining all available measures—including a 50% electric share of new truck registrations—would yield a 24% reduction by 2030, still falling short of the most aggressive linear pathway.

• The report identifies three indicative emissions reduction pathways for EU heavy-duty trucks and buses by 2030: a 'Fit for 55' pathway targeting a 4% reduction, an adjusted IEA net-zero scenario for advanced economies targeting 12%, and a linear pathway to zero emissions by 2050 targeting a 35% reduction.
• Combining all considered decarbonization measures—energy efficiency, battery electric vehicles (BEVs), fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs), and biofuels—would result in a total emissions reduction of 24% by 2030 compared to 2019 levels, which is insufficient to meet the most aggressive linear pathway to 2050.
• Slow vehicle stock renewal cycles mean that even ambitious new registration targets—such as 50% for heavy-duty trucks and 75% for buses by 2030—will only result in electric vehicles representing approximately 10% of the total truck stock and 20% of the total bus stock by 2030.
• The report argues that the current contribution of heavy-duty vehicles to the EU 2030 climate plan under the 'Fit for 55' package is small and that the sector has a much higher potential to help the EU meet Paris Agreement targets.
• The effectiveness of FCEVs is highly dependent on the electricity mix used for hydrogen production; using the average EU-27 mix would actually increase emissions by 1% compared to a fossil-fuel baseline, necessitating the use of renewable electricity to achieve reductions.

APA

Xylia, M., Gong, J., Olsson, O., & Johnson, F. X. (2021). Accelerating to zero. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/net-zero-trucking-seireport-10.51414-sei2021.025-1.pdf

Chicago

Xylia, Maria, Jindan Gong, Olle Olsson, and Francis X. Johnson. Accelerating to zero. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2021. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/net-zero-trucking-seireport-10.51414-sei2021.025-1.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Xylia |first1=Maria |last2=Gong |first2=Jindan |last3=Olsson |first3=Olle |last4=Johnson |first4=Francis X. |title=Accelerating to zero |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=November 2021 |url=https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/net-zero-trucking-seireport-10.51414-sei2021.025-1.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{xylia2021accelerating, author = {Xylia, Maria and Gong, Jindan and Olsson, Olle and Johnson, Francis X.}, title = {{Accelerating to zero}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2021}, month = nov, url = {https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/net-zero-trucking-seireport-10.51414-sei2021.025-1.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }