Search Climate Insights Directory

The global electricity sector is the largest CO2 emitter and must reach net zero by 2040 to facilitate the decarbonisation of other sectors. Following the IEA Net Zero Emissions (NZE) scenario, wind and solar are identified as the primary drivers of this transition. By 2030, wind and solar must increase to 41% of global electricity generation, while coal and gas generation must decrease by 54% and 24% respectively. By 2040, unabated coal must be phased out globally, and unabated gas should provide only 0.3% of electricity. This transition is essential to support rising electricity demand in developing regions and the electrification of transport, heating, and industry.

The report evaluates three emissions reduction pathways for EU heavy-duty vehicles, concluding that a combination of electrification, energy efficiency, and biofuels is necessary to reach ambitious targets. While the EU's 'Fit for 55' plan suggests a modest 4% reduction by 2030, a linear path to net-zero by 2050 would require a 35% reduction by 2030. The authors estimate that combining all available measures—including a 50% electric share of new truck registrations—would yield a 24% reduction by 2030, still falling short of the most aggressive linear pathway.

The document explores five supply-side pathways to reach 100 percent zero carbon power in the U.S. by 2035. It argues that while the final 10 percent of decarbonization is the most expensive, it can be achieved at a cost that keeps average wholesale rates similar to the 2020 average of 5.2 cents/kWh. The analyzed pathways include three green hydrogen options (fuel cells, turbine retrofits, and synthetic methane) and two carbon capture options (CCS retrofits and Direct Air Capture). The report highlights that green hydrogen production costs could drop to $1.50/kg by 2030 due to falling solar and wind costs and cheaper electrolyzers.

The report examines the decarbonization of mining haul trucks, which currently emit 68 MtCO2 annually and represent a significant portion of mine energy use. It argues that meeting 2050 targets requires a nonlinear pathway involving full decarbonization via disruptive technology by 2040, as near-term partial investments offer limited long-term timing benefits.

The analysis finds that Germany's current climate targets, including the Climate Mitigation Plan 2050, are insufficient to limit temperature rise to 1.5°C, potentially resulting in 20% to 130% more emissions by mid-century than allowed. To be unambiguously compatible with the 1.5°C limit and fulfill its historical responsibility, the document argues Germany must reach zero emissions by 2030. It further notes that failing to meet the original -40% target for 2020 has already consumed 10% of Germany's 1.5°C budget for 2010-2050, necessitating steeper future reductions.