ILLUSTRATIVE PATHWAYS TO 100 PERCENT ZERO CARBON POWER BY 2035 WITHOUT INCREASING CUSTOMER COSTS

The document explores five supply-side pathways to reach 100 percent zero carbon power in the U.S. by 2035. It argues that while the final 10 percent of decarbonization is the most expensive, it can be achieved at a cost that keeps average wholesale rates similar to the 2020 average of 5.2 cents/kWh. The analyzed pathways include three green hydrogen options (fuel cells, turbine retrofits, and synthetic methane) and two carbon capture options (CCS retrofits and Direct Air Capture). The report highlights that green hydrogen production costs could drop to $1.50/kg by 2030 due to falling solar and wind costs and cheaper electrolyzers.

• The U.S. could achieve 100 percent zero carbon electricity by 2035 with average wholesale rates similar to 2020 levels (approximately 5.2 cents/kWh). To avoid increasing rates, the cost of decarbonizing the final 10 percent of the sector can raise overall wholesale costs by about 0.5 cents/kWh in 2035.
• Green hydrogen production costs are projected to reach $1.50 per kilogram by 2030, driven by utility-scale solar PV costs declining to 1.5-2 cents/kWh and wind power to 2-2.5 cents/kWh, alongside electrolyzer costs dropping to $100-$300/kW.
• Using automotive fuel cells for seasonal power generation is identified as a cost-effective option for the final 10 percent of clean power, with estimated generation rates of around 8.5 cents/kWh, leading to a total system wholesale rate of about 5 cents/kWh.
• Retrofitting existing natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) plants to use green hydrogen is estimated to result in generation rates of approximately 11.7 cents/kWh for the final 10 percent, keeping total wholesale rates at about 5.3 cents/kWh.
• The use of synthetic methane (produced from green hydrogen and CO2 from direct air capture) in existing gas infrastructure would result in generation rates of around 12.6 cents/kWh for the final 10 percent, with total wholesale rates of 5.4 cents/kWh.
• Retrofitting existing NGCC capacity with carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) to cover the final 10 percent of generation would imply rates of around 11.4 cents/kWh, resulting in total wholesale rates of 5.3 cents/kWh.
• Direct Air Capture (DAC) as an offset for remaining emissions is currently expensive, with today's costs of $393 per tonne of CO2 leading to total wholesale rates of 6 cents/kWh. However, if costs decline to $150/ton by 2030, total wholesale rates would be 5.2 cents/kWh.

APA

PHADKE, A., AGGARWAL, S., O’BOYLE, M., GIMON, E., & ABHYANKAR, N. (2020). ILLUSTRATIVE PATHWAYS TO 100 PERCENT ZERO CARBON POWER BY 2035 WITHOUT INCREASING CUSTOMER COSTS. Energy Innovation. https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Pathways-to-100-Zero-Carbon-Power-by-2035-Without-Increasing-Customer-Costs.pdf

Chicago

PHADKE, AMOL, SONIA AGGARWAL, MIKE O’BOYLE, ERIC GIMON, and NIKIT ABHYANKAR. ILLUSTRATIVE PATHWAYS TO 100 PERCENT ZERO CARBON POWER BY 2035 WITHOUT INCREASING CUSTOMER COSTS. Energy Innovation, 2020. https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Pathways-to-100-Zero-Carbon-Power-by-2035-Without-Increasing-Customer-Costs.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=PHADKE |first1=AMOL |last2=AGGARWAL |first2=SONIA |last3=O’BOYLE |first3=MIKE |last4=GIMON |first4=ERIC |last5=ABHYANKAR |first5=NIKIT |title=ILLUSTRATIVE PATHWAYS TO 100 PERCENT ZERO CARBON POWER BY 2035 WITHOUT INCREASING CUSTOMER COSTS |publisher=Energy Innovation |date=September 2020 |url=https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Pathways-to-100-Zero-Carbon-Power-by-2035-Without-Increasing-Customer-Costs.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{phadke2020illustrative, author = {PHADKE, AMOL and AGGARWAL, SONIA and O’BOYLE, MIKE and GIMON, ERIC and ABHYANKAR, NIKIT}, title = {{ILLUSTRATIVE PATHWAYS TO 100 PERCENT ZERO CARBON POWER BY 2035 WITHOUT INCREASING CUSTOMER COSTS}}, institution = {Energy Innovation}, year = {2020}, month = sep, url = {https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Pathways-to-100-Zero-Carbon-Power-by-2035-Without-Increasing-Customer-Costs.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }