Exploring New Electric Vehicle Roadmaps for China

The report analyzes the impact of different electric vehicle (EV) penetration scenarios in China—Pre-COVID-19, Current Policies, and 100% BEV—across two electricity decarbonization pathways. It concludes that while China's post-COVID-19 policies for new energy vehicles (NEVs) are positive, significant emission reductions in the light-duty vehicle (LDV) sector are only possible if coupled with a transformational shift to a low-carbon electricity sector. Without power sector decarbonization, even ambitious BEV scenarios would only reduce emissions by 9% to 13% by 2050 compared to pre-pandemic levels. To reach carbon neutrality by 2060, the report argues that a 100% BEV vehicle stock and a fully decarbonized power sector are required, which could reduce LDV emissions to zero and transport sector emissions by 790 MtCO2/yr by 2050.

• China's post-COVID-19 policies to increase new energy vehicle (NEV) penetration are positive, but without further mitigation in NEVs or electricity decarbonization, light-duty vehicle (LDV) emissions could still exceed 700 MtCO2/yr by 2050, jeopardizing the country's carbon neutrality target.
• Decarbonizing the LDV fleet is a long-term process where emission reductions are minimal in the short and medium term due to the low initial share of NEVs and the time required to retire the existing vehicle stock. The difference in emission reductions between the least and most ambitious scenarios in 2030 is at most 110 MtCO2/yr.
• The effectiveness of electric vehicle policies depends heavily on the decarbonization of the power sector. Future electricity demand for China's NEV fleet is projected to be between 1,300 and 1,600 TWh/yr. Without power sector decarbonization, the Current Policy and 100% BEV scenarios would only reduce emissions by 9% to 13% by 2050 relative to the Pre-COVID-19 scenario, whereas a decarbonized power sector would enable reductions of 88% to 100%.
• Achieving carbon neutrality by 2060 requires a 100% BEV vehicle stock and a fully decarbonized power sector. This specific roadmap could eliminate carbon emissions from LDVs and reduce transport sector emissions by 790 MtCO2/yr by 2050, representing approximately 15% of China's projected 2050 emissions.

APA

NewClimate Institute (2021). Exploring New Electric Vehicle Roadmaps for China. http://www.newclimate.org/resources/publications/climate-action-tracker-exploring-new-electric-vehicle-roadmaps-for-china-in

Chicago

NewClimate Institute. Exploring New Electric Vehicle Roadmaps for China. 2021. http://www.newclimate.org/resources/publications/climate-action-tracker-exploring-new-electric-vehicle-roadmaps-for-china-in.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=NewClimate Institute |title=Exploring New Electric Vehicle Roadmaps for China |date=5 October 2021 |url=http://www.newclimate.org/resources/publications/climate-action-tracker-exploring-new-electric-vehicle-roadmaps-for-china-in |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{newclimateinstitute2021exploring, author = {{NewClimate Institute}}, title = {{Exploring New Electric Vehicle Roadmaps for China}}, institution = {NewClimate Institute}, year = {2021}, month = oct, url = {http://www.newclimate.org/resources/publications/climate-action-tracker-exploring-new-electric-vehicle-roadmaps-for-china-in}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }