Exploring New Electric Vehicle Roadmaps for China

The Climate Action Tracker (CAT) report analyzes passenger vehicle stock scenarios in China to determine their impact on carbon emissions and electricity demand. It evaluates three scenarios—Pre-COVID-19, Current Policies, and 100% BEV—across two electricity decarbonization pathways, concluding that achieving carbon neutrality by 2060 requires both a 100% battery electric vehicle (BEV) fleet and a fully decarbonized power sector.

• China has been the global leader in annual battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales since 2015, when it overtook the US. Post-COVID-19 recovery policies have further supported new energy vehicles (NEVs)—including BEVs, plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs), and hydrogen cars—through investment in charging infrastructure, extended purchase subsidies, and reduced market entry barriers for BEV producers.
• The light-duty vehicle (LDV) sub-sector is the primary emitter of carbon dioxide and energy consumer within China's transport sector, which is the country's second largest emitting sector and accounts for nearly 20% of national primary energy consumption. Under a 'Current Policy' scenario, LDV emissions could still exceed 700 MtCO2/yr by 2050 without further mitigation in NEVs or electricity decarbonization, threatening China's carbon neutrality target.
• Emission reductions from NEV penetration are expected to be negligible in the short term and minor in the medium term due to the low starting share of NEVs and the time required to retire the existing vehicle stock. By 2030, the difference in emission reductions between the least and most ambitious scenarios is a maximum of 110 MtCO2/yr, with significant impacts only appearing near 2040.
• The effectiveness of electric vehicle policies depends heavily on the decarbonization of the power sector. Future electricity demand for China's NEV fleet is projected to be between 1,300 and 1,600 TWh/yr across all scenarios. Without power sector decarbonization, the 'Current Policy' and '100% BEV' scenarios would only reduce emissions by 9% to 13% compared to the 'Pre-COVID-19' scenario by 2050, whereas a decarbonized power sector would result in an 88% to 100% reduction.
• To reach its 2060 carbon neutrality goal, China requires a 100% BEV vehicle stock and a fully decarbonized power sector. This combined roadmap could reduce transport sector emissions by 790 MtCO2/yr in 2050 and bring LDV carbon emissions to zero, representing approximately 15% of China's projected 2050 emissions.

APA

NewClimate Institute (2021). Exploring New Electric Vehicle Roadmaps for China. http://www.newclimate.org/resources/publications/climate-action-tracker-exploring-new-electric-vehicle-roadmaps-for-china-in

Chicago

NewClimate Institute. Exploring New Electric Vehicle Roadmaps for China. 2021. http://www.newclimate.org/resources/publications/climate-action-tracker-exploring-new-electric-vehicle-roadmaps-for-china-in.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=NewClimate Institute |title=Exploring New Electric Vehicle Roadmaps for China |date=5 October 2021 |url=http://www.newclimate.org/resources/publications/climate-action-tracker-exploring-new-electric-vehicle-roadmaps-for-china-in |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{newclimateinstitute2021exploring, author = {{NewClimate Institute}}, title = {{Exploring New Electric Vehicle Roadmaps for China}}, institution = {NewClimate Institute}, year = {2021}, month = oct, url = {http://www.newclimate.org/resources/publications/climate-action-tracker-exploring-new-electric-vehicle-roadmaps-for-china-in}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }