IS SHELL ON TRACK FOR 1.5°C?

The briefing concludes that Shell's strategy is not on track to meet the 1.5°C climate goal, predicting the company will exceed its allocated carbon budget by 2034. Despite a net-zero ambition for 2050, the analysis finds that Shell's short-term plans rely on unrealistic offsets and continued investment in oil and gas expansion. The report highlights that Shell remains a top global hydrocarbon developer, with approximately 90% of its 2022 CAPEX allocated to fossil fuels, which contradicts the deep emission cuts required for 1.5°C alignment.

• Shell is projected to exceed its 1.5°C compatible carbon budget by 2034, with cumulative greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 estimated to be 40.9% higher than the authorized limit.
• Shell's carbon intensity is projected to be an average of 41.4% higher than the maximum levels allowed by the 1.5°C reference scenario until 2035.
• The company relies heavily on nature-based solutions and Carbon Capture and Storage (CCUS) to meet targets, though these are deemed unsustainable; by 2030, Shell plans to offset 120 MtCO2e per annum via nature-based solutions, requiring land nearly three times the size of the Netherlands.
• Shell's investment strategy remains focused on fossil fuels, with approximately 90% of its 2022 CAPEX allocated to them, while its renewable share of the energy mix is projected to be at most 22.3% by 2030.
• Shell continues to expand its hydrocarbon portfolio, ranking as the second largest European developer of oil and gas and among the top 10 developers worldwide, with significant investments in ultra-deep water, the Arctic, and fracking.
• The company is shifting its fossil fuel focus toward gas, planning to invest $4 billion per year to grow the gas business, which will account for 55% of its oil and gas mix by 2030.

APA

Her, H., & Delaporte, L.-M. (2022). IS SHELL ON TRACK FOR 1.5°C? Reclaim Finance. https://reclaimfinance.org/site/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Shell-company-briefing-March-2022.pdf

Chicago

Her, Henri, and Louis-Maxence Delaporte. IS SHELL ON TRACK FOR 1.5°C? Reclaim Finance, 2022. https://reclaimfinance.org/site/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Shell-company-briefing-March-2022.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Her |first1=Henri |last2=Delaporte |first2=Louis-Maxence |title=IS SHELL ON TRACK FOR 1.5°C? |publisher=Reclaim Finance |date=May 2022 |url=https://reclaimfinance.org/site/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Shell-company-briefing-March-2022.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{her2022shell, author = {Her, Henri and Delaporte, Louis-Maxence}, title = {{IS SHELL ON TRACK FOR 1.5°C?}}, institution = {Reclaim Finance}, year = {2022}, month = may, url = {https://reclaimfinance.org/site/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Shell-company-briefing-March-2022.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }