Emissions Scenarios for Major Economies 2022 Update

Projected emissions for the analysed major economies under current policies (36.2-41.8 GtCO2e by 2030) remain far above the 43% reduction from 2019 levels required by the Paris Agreement. While average per capita emissions are projected to decrease slightly from 9.6 tCO2e in 2015 to approximately 8.8-8.9 tCO2e by 2030, significant disparities exist, with emissions per capita expected to more than double in Türkiye and Viet Nam while halving in Australia, Canada, the United States, and the United Kingdom. Only eleven countries are currently on track to meet their latest NDC targets, with Brazil and Indonesia moving off track due to increased land-use emission projections.

• Projected emissions for the analysed countries under current policies are expected to reach 36.2-41.8 GtCO2e by 2030, representing a change of -4% to +11% relative to 2019 levels. This falls short of the Paris Agreement's collective goal of a 43% reduction by 2030. Furthermore, global emissions peaking is not projected to occur before 2025.
• Per capita emissions projections for 2030 show extreme divergence: they are expected to more than double in Türkiye and Viet Nam under NDC targets, whereas they are projected to decrease by half in Australia, Canada, the United States, and the United Kingdom. The average per capita emissions across 25 analysed NDC targets is 8.8 tCO2e, compared to 8.9 tCO2e under current policies and 9.6 tCO2e in 2015.
• Eleven countries are currently on track to meet their latest NDC targets. Recent changes include Brazil and Indonesia moving from on track to off track due to higher land-use emission projections, while Mexico is now well on track following emission inventory revisions and Egypt is now on track after establishing a quantifiable target.

APA

NewClimate Institute (2022). Emissions Scenarios for Major Economies 2022 Update. http://www.newclimate.org/resources/publications/emissions-scenarios-for-major-economies-2022-update

Chicago

NewClimate Institute. Emissions Scenarios for Major Economies 2022 Update. 2022. http://www.newclimate.org/resources/publications/emissions-scenarios-for-major-economies-2022-update.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=NewClimate Institute |title=Emissions Scenarios for Major Economies 2022 Update |date=10 October 2022 |url=http://www.newclimate.org/resources/publications/emissions-scenarios-for-major-economies-2022-update |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{newclimateinstitute2022emissions, author = {{NewClimate Institute}}, title = {{Emissions Scenarios for Major Economies 2022 Update}}, institution = {NewClimate Institute}, year = {2022}, month = oct, url = {http://www.newclimate.org/resources/publications/emissions-scenarios-for-major-economies-2022-update}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }