Emissions Scenarios for Major Economies 2022 Update

The NewClimate Institute's 2022 update analyzes emissions projections for major economies, finding that current policies are insufficient to meet Paris Agreement goals and that per capita emissions trends vary significantly by country.

• Projected emissions under current policies for the analyzed group of countries are expected to be between 36.2 and 41.8 GtCO2e by 2030, representing a change of -4% to +11% relative to 2019 levels. This falls short of the Paris Agreement's collective goal of a 43% reduction below 2019 levels by 2030. Furthermore, global emissions peaking is not projected to occur before 2025.
• Per capita emissions projections for 2030 show a stark divide: they are expected to more than double in Türkiye and Viet Nam under NDC targets, while they are expected to decrease by half in Australia, Canada, the United States, and the United Kingdom. The average per capita emissions across the 25 analyzed NDC targets for 2030 is 8.8 tCO2e, compared to a historical 2015 average of 9.6 tCO2e.
• Eleven countries are currently on track to meet their latest NDC targets, a figure unchanged from the 2021 update. Specific changes include Brazil and Indonesia moving from 'on track' to 'off track' due to increased land use emission projections, while Mexico is now 'well on track' following emission inventory revisions and Egypt is now 'on track' after previously lacking a quantifiable target.

APA

NewClimate Institute (2022). Emissions Scenarios for Major Economies 2022 Update. http://www.newclimate.org/resources/publications/emissions-scenarios-for-major-economies-2022-update

Chicago

NewClimate Institute. Emissions Scenarios for Major Economies 2022 Update. 2022. http://www.newclimate.org/resources/publications/emissions-scenarios-for-major-economies-2022-update.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=NewClimate Institute |title=Emissions Scenarios for Major Economies 2022 Update |date=10 October 2022 |url=http://www.newclimate.org/resources/publications/emissions-scenarios-for-major-economies-2022-update |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{newclimateinstitute2022emissions, author = {{NewClimate Institute}}, title = {{Emissions Scenarios for Major Economies 2022 Update}}, institution = {NewClimate Institute}, year = {2022}, month = oct, url = {http://www.newclimate.org/resources/publications/emissions-scenarios-for-major-economies-2022-update}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }