Captive coal expansion plan could undermine Indonesia’s climate goals

This report by Ember analyzes Indonesia's National Electricity Master Plan (RUKN 2024 - 2060), arguing that planned expansions in captive coal capacity threaten the country's climate goals and the Paris Agreement targets. The report highlights a projected surge in coal generation peaking in 2037 and recommends shifting toward renewables to reduce financial and environmental risks.

• Indonesia's National Electricity Master Plan (RUKN 2024 - 2060) intends to increase coal capacity by 26.8 GW within seven years, with captive coal serving as the primary driver by representing over 20 GW of this new capacity. This expansion is expected to lead to a peak in coal generation by 2037, which would be 62.7% higher than current levels.
• The growth of captive coal is largely driven by the expansion of mineral smelting industries in Sulawesi and North Maluku. Captive coal capacity grew nearly fivefold between 2014 and 2023, rising from 2.3 GW to 11.2 GW.
• New captive coal projects face higher financial risks and costs compared to other options. The generation cost for new captive coal could reach 7.71 USc/kWh, which exceeds the 2020 national average generation cost of 7.05 USc/kWh and the levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) for grid-connected coal-fired power plants (5.68 USc/kWh).
• The master plan's projections are inconsistent with the Paris Agreement and the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP). While the Low Carbon Scenario (LCCP) suggests coal generation should peak at 435 TWh in 2030, the master plan projects a peak of 494 TWh in 2037. Consequently, total power sector emissions are projected to reach 598 MtCO2e in 2037, comprising 432 MtCO2e from the grid and 166 MtCO2e from captive power.
• Captive coal currently lacks the regulatory oversight applied to grid-connected plants, as it is excluded from the power sector emissions trading scheme and has no emissions reporting requirements.

APA

Setiawan, D., Ewen, M., Wright, C., Whittle, E., Sucahyo, R., Orso, L., & Rahmani, A. A. (2025). Captive coal expansion plan could undermine Indonesia’s climate goals. Ember. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2025/02/EN-Indonesia-RUKN-2025_14022025.pdf

Chicago

Setiawan, Dody, Matt Ewen, Chris Wright, Eleanor Whittle, Rini Sucahyo, Lauren Orso, and Ardhi Arsala Rahmani. Captive coal expansion plan could undermine Indonesia’s climate goals. Ember, 2025. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2025/02/EN-Indonesia-RUKN-2025_14022025.pdf.

Wikipedia

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BibTeX

@techreport{setiawan2025captive, author = {Setiawan, Dody and Ewen, Matt and Wright, Chris and Whittle, Eleanor and Sucahyo, Rini and Orso, Lauren and Rahmani, Ardhi Arsala}, title = {{Captive coal expansion plan could undermine Indonesia’s climate goals}}, institution = {Ember}, year = {2025}, month = feb, url = {https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2025/02/EN-Indonesia-RUKN-2025_14022025.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }