Captive coal expansion plan could undermine Indonesia’s climate goals

Indonesia's RUKN 2024-2060 projects a coal capacity increase of 26.8 GW by 2031, primarily driven by over 20 GW of new captive coal plants for mineral processing. This expansion is expected to push coal generation to a peak of 494 TWh in 2037, contradicting the country's Low Carbon Scenario and JETP targets. The report highlights that new captive coal is more expensive than grid-connected coal and renewables, while lacking the emissions reporting and trading requirements imposed on the grid. It recommends reassessing captive coal plans, enforcing stricter emissions standards, and accelerating renewable energy deployment to avoid carbon lock-in.

• Indonesia's National Electricity Master Plan (RUKN 2024-2060) intends to increase total coal capacity to 76.5 GW by 2031, adding 26.8 GW of new capacity. Of this, over 20 GW is designated as captive coal capacity to support the mineral processing industry, while 6.6 GW is for new grid-connected coal-fired power plants.
• The expansion of coal generation is projected to peak in 2037 at 494 TWh, which is 62.7% higher than current levels. This trajectory is incompatible with the Paris Agreement and the Low Carbon Scenario (LCCP), which requires coal generation to peak at 435 TWh in 2030 and drop to approximately 180 TWh by 2050.
• New captive coal plants face higher financial risks and costs compared to other options. Their generation cost could reach 7.71 USc/kWh, exceeding the 2020 national average of 7.05 USc/kWh and the levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) for grid-connected coal plants (5.68 USc/kWh), partly because they cannot access capped coal prices.
• Captive coal currently lacks the regulatory oversight applied to grid-connected plants, as it is excluded from the power sector emissions trading scheme and has no emissions reporting requirements.
• The projected increase in coal demand for power—from 183 million tonnes in 2024 to 298 million tonnes by 2037—will likely increase coal mine methane emissions by approximately 100 kt, or 13.7% above 2024 levels.

APA

Setiawan, D., Ewen, M., Wright, C., Whittle, E., Sucahyo, R., Orso, L., & Rahmani, A. A. (2025). Captive coal expansion plan could undermine Indonesia’s climate goals. Ember. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2025/02/EN-Indonesia-RUKN-2025_14022025.pdf

Chicago

Setiawan, Dody, Matt Ewen, Chris Wright, Eleanor Whittle, Rini Sucahyo, Lauren Orso, and Ardhi Arsala Rahmani. Captive coal expansion plan could undermine Indonesia’s climate goals. Ember, 2025. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2025/02/EN-Indonesia-RUKN-2025_14022025.pdf.

Wikipedia

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BibTeX

@techreport{setiawan2025captive, author = {Setiawan, Dody and Ewen, Matt and Wright, Chris and Whittle, Eleanor and Sucahyo, Rini and Orso, Lauren and Rahmani, Ardhi Arsala}, title = {{Captive coal expansion plan could undermine Indonesia’s climate goals}}, institution = {Ember}, year = {2025}, month = feb, url = {https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2025/02/EN-Indonesia-RUKN-2025_14022025.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }