In China, a small boost to low-emissions steelmaking can mean big cuts to its carbon footprint

This briefing by Global Energy Monitor analyzes China's steel industry, focusing on the transition from emissions-intensive blast furnace-basic oxygen furnace (BF-BOF) production to lower-emissions electric arc furnace (EAF) technology. It evaluates the feasibility of China's 15% EAF production target for 2025 and the potential for a more ambitious 20% target, while identifying obstacles such as scrap distribution and energy stability.

• China's steel industry is dominated by the coal-based blast furnace-basic oxygen furnace (BF-BOF) route, which is significantly more emissions-intensive than the electric arc furnace (EAF) route. BF-BOF steel has an emissions intensity of approximately 2.1 tonnes CO2 per tonne of steel, compared to approximately 1.3 tonnes CO2 per tonne for EAF steel. In 2022, BF-BOF production accounted for nearly 94% of the industry's total emissions.
• The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) set a target for at least 15% of crude steel production to be via EAF by 2025. While a more ambitious 20% goal was initially proposed in a 2020 draft report, it was removed from the final 2022 version. As of January 2024, China has 151 mtpa of operating EAF capacity, which is sufficient to meet the 15% production goal (requiring 143 mtpa) if capacity utilization rates are increased.
• Achieving the 15% EAF production goal by 2025 would reduce industry emissions by 8.7% (179 mtpa CO2) relative to 2022. If China instead pursued the initial 20% goal, it would require producing 190 mtpa via EAF, necessitating an additional 39 mtpa of capacity. This higher target would reduce emissions by a total of 217 mtpa CO2, or nearly 11% of 2022 levels.
• The China Steel Association (CSA) originally planned to peak steel industry emissions by 2025 and reduce them by 30% from that peak by 2030, but the target for peak emissions was later pushed back to 2030 in 2022.
• While scrap steel availability is often cited as a limit, China had 260 million tonnes of scrap available in 2022, exceeding industry usage. Projections suggest scrap resources will grow to 320 million tonnes by 2025, 390 million tonnes by 2030, and 500 million tonnes by 2050. However, 68% of scrap is currently used in the BF-BOF process, and distribution is concentrated in specific regions including the Northeast, North China, East China, Central South, and Southwest.
• China is the world's largest producer and consumer of hydrogen, with green hydrogen facilities operating at less than 10% capacity on average, meaning hydrogen availability is not the primary barrier to hydrogen-based direct reduced iron (DRI) production. The main challenge is unstable energy supply and power shortages, though the development of off-shore wind energy in coastal areas where most BF-BOF capacity is located offers a potential solution.

APA

Global Energy Monitor (2024). In China, a small boost to low-emissions steelmaking can mean big cuts to its carbon footprint. https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/migration/reports/GEM-China-steel-brief-March-2024_11.pdf

Chicago

Global Energy Monitor. In China, a small boost to low-emissions steelmaking can mean big cuts to its carbon footprint. 2024. https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/migration/reports/GEM-China-steel-brief-March-2024_11.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Global Energy Monitor |title=In China, a small boost to low-emissions steelmaking can mean big cuts to its carbon footprint |date=March 2024 |url=https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/migration/reports/GEM-China-steel-brief-March-2024_11.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{globalenergymonitor2024china, author = {{Global Energy Monitor}}, title = {{In China, a small boost to low-emissions steelmaking can mean big cuts to its carbon footprint}}, institution = {Global Energy Monitor}, year = {2024}, month = mar, url = {https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/migration/reports/GEM-China-steel-brief-March-2024_11.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }