MODELING THE INFRASTRUCTURE BILLS USING THE ENERGY POLICY SIMULATOR

Energy Innovation used the Energy Policy Simulator (EPS) to model the impacts of the Build Back Better Act and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act. The analysis finds that these bills could help the U.S. meet its 2030 NDC of 50-52% emissions reductions, potentially avoiding 4,600 to 7,000 deaths and creating up to 638,000 jobs. The most critical driver is the Clean Electricity Performance Program (CEPP) combined with clean energy tax credits, while the methane fee and EV incentives also provide significant reductions. However, funding for building electrification was found to be insufficient for a full sector transformation.

• The Infrastructure Bills could put the United States on a trajectory to meet its 2030 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) of reducing emissions by 50 to 52 percent below 2005 levels, provided there is supporting state and regulatory policy.
• Annual greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions in 2030 are estimated to range between 1,067 and 1,510 million metric tonnes (MMT) across Low, Moderate, and High scenarios. The combination of the Clean Electricity Performance Program (CEPP) and clean energy tax credits is the primary driver, contributing approximately 750 MMT (56 percent of total reductions) in the Moderate Scenario.
• The Clean Electricity Performance Program (CEPP) is identified as the most critical component for deep power sector decarbonization. Without the CEPP, annual emissions in 2030 would likely be 250 to 700 MMT higher, potentially eliminating over one-third of the total emissions reductions from the bills. The effectiveness of the CEPP depends heavily on the $40 per megawatt hour penalty.
• The methane fee of $60 per tonne of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) is estimated to reduce methane emissions by nearly 70 percent relative to the business-as-usual scenario, resulting in a reduction of roughly 160 MMT CO2e in 2030.
• Electric vehicle (EV) incentives are the third largest contributor to 2030 emissions reductions, estimated at 115 MMT (9 percent of total reductions) in the Moderate Scenario. While the High Scenario achieves 60 percent zero-emission vehicle sales by 2030, the Moderate and Low scenarios reach 49 percent and 41 percent respectively.
• Funding for building electrification is deemed insufficient to transform the sector. The High Efficiency Electric Home Rebate Program is allocated $9 billion in the BBB text, which is only 5 percent of the $180 billion estimated by the American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy (ACEEE) as necessary to incentivize most consumers to switch to efficient heat pumps over the next decade.
• The bills are projected to provide significant public health benefits by 2030, including avoiding 4,600 to 7,000 premature deaths and 127,000 to 194,000 asthma attacks annually. These benefits, specifically the percentage decrease in deaths, are more concentrated in communities of color.
• The Infrastructure Bills are estimated to create between 449,000 and 638,000 additional job-years in 2030, with employment concentrated in the service, construction, and manufacturing industries.

APA

MAHAJAN, M., & ORVIS, R. (2021). MODELING THE INFRASTRUCTURE BILLS USING THE ENERGY POLICY SIMULATOR. Energy Innovation. https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Modeling-The-Infrastructure-Bills-Using-The-Energy-Policy-Simulator.pdf

Chicago

MAHAJAN, MEGAN, and ROBBIE ORVIS. MODELING THE INFRASTRUCTURE BILLS USING THE ENERGY POLICY SIMULATOR. Energy Innovation, 2021. https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Modeling-The-Infrastructure-Bills-Using-The-Energy-Policy-Simulator.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=MAHAJAN |first1=MEGAN |last2=ORVIS |first2=ROBBIE |title=MODELING THE INFRASTRUCTURE BILLS USING THE ENERGY POLICY SIMULATOR |publisher=Energy Innovation |date=October 2021 |url=https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Modeling-The-Infrastructure-Bills-Using-The-Energy-Policy-Simulator.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{mahajan2021modeling, author = {MAHAJAN, MEGAN and ORVIS, ROBBIE}, title = {{MODELING THE INFRASTRUCTURE BILLS USING THE ENERGY POLICY SIMULATOR}}, institution = {Energy Innovation}, year = {2021}, month = oct, url = {https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Modeling-The-Infrastructure-Bills-Using-The-Energy-Policy-Simulator.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }