MODELING THE INFRASTRUCTURE BILLS USING THE ENERGY POLICY SIMULATOR

The analysis finds that the 'Infrastructure Bills' could reduce annual greenhouse gas emissions by 1,067 to 1,510 million metric tonnes by 2030, potentially putting the U.S. on track to meet its NDC of 50-52% below 2005 levels. The most critical drivers are the Clean Electricity Performance Program (CEPP) and clean energy tax credits, which together could drive the power sector to 70-85% clean generation. Additional benefits include the creation of 449,000 to 638,000 job-years and the avoidance of 4,600 to 7,000 premature deaths annually by 2030, with health benefits concentrated in communities of color.

• The modeled provisions of the Infrastructure Bills could reduce annual greenhouse gas emissions in 2030 by between 1,067 and 1,510 million metric tonnes (MMT), depending on the scenario.
• The combination of the Clean Electricity Performance Program (CEPP) and clean energy tax credits is the most significant driver of emissions reductions, contributing approximately 750 MMT (56% of total reductions) in the Moderate Scenario and potentially increasing clean electricity generation to 85% by 2030.
• The CEPP's $40 per megawatt hour penalty is essential for its effectiveness; without the CEPP, annual emissions in 2030 would likely be 250 to 700 MMT higher, potentially eliminating over one-third of the bills' total emissions reductions.
• A methane fee of $60 per tonne of CO2e could reduce oil and gas industry methane emissions by nearly 70% relative to business-as-usual, resulting in a reduction of roughly 160 MMT CO2e in 2030.
• Electric vehicle (EV) incentives are the third largest contributor to 2030 emissions reductions, though the actual sales share of EVs in 2030 varies by scenario from 41% (Low) to 60% (High).
• Funding for building electrification is considered insufficient to transform the sector; for example, the High Efficiency Electric Home Rebate Program is allocated $9 billion, which is only 5% of the $180 billion estimated by the ACEEE as necessary to incentivize most consumers to switch to heat pumps.
• The bills are projected to avoid 4,600 to 7,000 premature deaths and 127,000 to 194,000 asthma attacks annually by 2030, with the highest percentage of avoided deaths occurring in communities of color.
• The Infrastructure Bills are estimated to create between 449,000 and 638,000 additional job-years by 2030, primarily in the service, construction, and manufacturing industries.

APA

MAHAJAN, M., & ORVIS, R. (2021). MODELING THE INFRASTRUCTURE BILLS USING THE ENERGY POLICY SIMULATOR. Energy Innovation. https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Modeling-The-Infrastructure-Bills-Using-The-Energy-Policy-Simulator.pdf

Chicago

MAHAJAN, MEGAN, and ROBBIE ORVIS. MODELING THE INFRASTRUCTURE BILLS USING THE ENERGY POLICY SIMULATOR. Energy Innovation, 2021. https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Modeling-The-Infrastructure-Bills-Using-The-Energy-Policy-Simulator.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=MAHAJAN |first1=MEGAN |last2=ORVIS |first2=ROBBIE |title=MODELING THE INFRASTRUCTURE BILLS USING THE ENERGY POLICY SIMULATOR |publisher=Energy Innovation |date=October 2021 |url=https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Modeling-The-Infrastructure-Bills-Using-The-Energy-Policy-Simulator.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{mahajan2021modeling, author = {MAHAJAN, MEGAN and ORVIS, ROBBIE}, title = {{MODELING THE INFRASTRUCTURE BILLS USING THE ENERGY POLICY SIMULATOR}}, institution = {Energy Innovation}, year = {2021}, month = oct, url = {https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Modeling-The-Infrastructure-Bills-Using-The-Energy-Policy-Simulator.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }