MODELING THE INFLATION REDUCTION ACT USING THE ENERGY POLICY SIMULATOR

Energy Innovation used the U.S. Energy Policy Simulator (EPS) to model the climate and energy provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) of 2022. The analysis finds that the IRA would significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions, create over a million jobs, and provide substantial public health benefits, despite emissions increases from required oil and gas leasing.

• The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) is projected to reduce U.S. greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 37-41 percent below 2005 levels by 2030. This represents a reduction of 870-1,150 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) in 2030. Compared to a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, which forecasts a 24 percent reduction below 2005 levels, the IRA would close 50-66 percent of the emissions gap between BAU and the U.S. nationally determined commitments (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement.
• The IRA's oil and gas leasing requirements are estimated to increase emissions by up to 50 million metric tons (MMT) in 2030. However, the overall impact of the legislation remains overwhelmingly positive, with at least 24 tons of emissions avoided by other IRA provisions for every one ton of emissions generated by the oil and gas provisions.
• The legislation is projected to create between 1.4 million and 1.5 million additional jobs by 2030, primarily within the service, construction, and manufacturing industries. Additionally, the IRA is estimated to increase the U.S. GDP by 0.84-0.88 percent in 2030.
• The IRA is expected to yield significant public health improvements by 2030, including the avoidance of 3,700 to 3,900 premature deaths, 99,000 to 100,000 asthma attacks, and 405,000 to 417,000 lost workdays. These health benefits are disproportionately concentrated in communities of color, which have historically suffered more from air pollution.

APA

MAHAJAN, M., ASHMOORE, O., RISSMAN, J., ORVIS, R., & GOPAL, A. (2022). MODELING THE INFLATION REDUCTION ACT USING THE ENERGY POLICY SIMULATOR. Energy Innovation. https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Modeling-the-Inflation-Reduction-Act-with-the-US-Energy-Policy-Simulator_August.pdf

Chicago

MAHAJAN, MEGAN, OLIVIA ASHMOORE, JEFFREY RISSMAN, ROBBIE ORVIS, and ANAND GOPAL. MODELING THE INFLATION REDUCTION ACT USING THE ENERGY POLICY SIMULATOR. Energy Innovation, 2022. https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Modeling-the-Inflation-Reduction-Act-with-the-US-Energy-Policy-Simulator_August.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=MAHAJAN |first1=MEGAN |last2=ASHMOORE |first2=OLIVIA |last3=RISSMAN |first3=JEFFREY |last4=ORVIS |first4=ROBBIE |last5=GOPAL |first5=ANAND |title=MODELING THE INFLATION REDUCTION ACT USING THE ENERGY POLICY SIMULATOR |publisher=Energy Innovation |date=August 2022 |url=https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Modeling-the-Inflation-Reduction-Act-with-the-US-Energy-Policy-Simulator_August.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{mahajan2022modeling, author = {MAHAJAN, MEGAN and ASHMOORE, OLIVIA and RISSMAN, JEFFREY and ORVIS, ROBBIE and GOPAL, ANAND}, title = {{MODELING THE INFLATION REDUCTION ACT USING THE ENERGY POLICY SIMULATOR}}, institution = {Energy Innovation}, year = {2022}, month = aug, url = {https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Modeling-the-Inflation-Reduction-Act-with-the-US-Energy-Policy-Simulator_August.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }