MODELING THE INFLATION REDUCTION ACT USING THE ENERGY POLICY SIMULATOR

Energy Innovation's modeling indicates that the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) could reduce U.S. greenhouse gas emissions by 37-41% below 2005 levels by 2030, closing 50-66% of the gap between business-as-usual projections and the U.S. Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). Despite an estimated increase of up to 50 million metric tons (MMT) in emissions from required oil and gas leasing, the net effect is overwhelmingly positive, with at least 24 tons of emissions avoided for every ton generated by leasing provisions. The IRA is projected to create 1.4 to 1.5 million jobs and prevent 3,700 to 3,900 premature deaths by 2030, with health benefits disproportionately benefiting communities of color.

• The IRA is projected to reduce U.S. greenhouse gas emissions to 37-41% below 2005 levels by 2030, which would close 50-66% of the emissions gap between the business-as-usual scenario and the U.S. Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC).
• In absolute terms, the IRA is estimated to reduce GHG emissions by 870-1,150 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) in 2030.
• The IRA's oil and gas leasing requirements could increase emissions by up to 50 million metric tons (MMT) in 2030, but this is offset by other provisions such that at least 24 tons of emissions are avoided for every ton generated by these leasing requirements.
• The legislation is projected to create between 1.4 million and 1.5 million additional jobs by 2030, primarily in the service, construction, and manufacturing industries, and could increase GDP by 0.84-0.88% in 2030.
• The IRA could prevent 3,700 to 3,900 premature deaths and 99,000 to 100,000 asthma attacks annually by 2030, with the greatest percentage decrease in deaths occurring in communities of color.

APA

MAHAJAN, M., ASHMOORE, O., RISSMAN, J., ORVIS, R., & GOPAL, A. (2022). MODELING THE INFLATION REDUCTION ACT USING THE ENERGY POLICY SIMULATOR. Energy Innovation. https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Modeling-the-Inflation-Reduction-Act-with-the-US-Energy-Policy-Simulator_August.pdf

Chicago

MAHAJAN, MEGAN, OLIVIA ASHMOORE, JEFFREY RISSMAN, ROBBIE ORVIS, and ANAND GOPAL. MODELING THE INFLATION REDUCTION ACT USING THE ENERGY POLICY SIMULATOR. Energy Innovation, 2022. https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Modeling-the-Inflation-Reduction-Act-with-the-US-Energy-Policy-Simulator_August.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=MAHAJAN |first1=MEGAN |last2=ASHMOORE |first2=OLIVIA |last3=RISSMAN |first3=JEFFREY |last4=ORVIS |first4=ROBBIE |last5=GOPAL |first5=ANAND |title=MODELING THE INFLATION REDUCTION ACT USING THE ENERGY POLICY SIMULATOR |publisher=Energy Innovation |date=August 2022 |url=https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Modeling-the-Inflation-Reduction-Act-with-the-US-Energy-Policy-Simulator_August.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{mahajan2022modeling, author = {MAHAJAN, MEGAN and ASHMOORE, OLIVIA and RISSMAN, JEFFREY and ORVIS, ROBBIE and GOPAL, ANAND}, title = {{MODELING THE INFLATION REDUCTION ACT USING THE ENERGY POLICY SIMULATOR}}, institution = {Energy Innovation}, year = {2022}, month = aug, url = {https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Modeling-the-Inflation-Reduction-Act-with-the-US-Energy-Policy-Simulator_August.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }