Modeling Climate, Health, and Economic Benefits of Faster New Energy Vehicle Deployment in China

The report models an 'Added Policy' (AP) scenario where China reaches 100% NEV sales for passenger cars, SUVs, and buses by 2035, and for freight trucks by 2040. This transition is projected to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions, prevent tens of thousands of premature deaths—primarily through the electrification of trucks—and create millions of jobs. The analysis also highlights a substantial reduction in China's dependence on imported petroleum, with fuel demand for the modeled vehicle categories falling by 97% by 2060 compared to business-as-usual. The authors recommend that China establish ambitious long-term NEV sales targets for freight trucks and implement a 'Dual Credit'-type policy for commercial vehicles.

• Accelerated NEV deployment in the modeled 'Added Policy' scenario would reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MMT of CO2e) in 2030, increasing to 530 MMT of CO2e by 2060.
• The transition to NEVs would yield significant public health improvements, with avoided premature deaths estimated at 4,400 in 2030 and rising to 77,000 by 2060. New energy trucks are the primary driver of these gains, accounting for an average of 84% of annual avoided premature deaths.
• Faster NEV adoption is projected to have a positive impact on employment, peaking at a net gain of 2.4 million jobs in 2032, largely driven by the re-spending of fuel and maintenance savings.
• Rapid NEV deployment would drastically lower China's demand for petroleum fuels for cars, SUVs, trucks, and buses by 28% in 2035, 81% in 2045, and 97% in 2060 compared to business-as-usual demand.
• The report recommends that Chinese policymakers set specific 2030 NEV sales targets for trucks: 56% for light-duty trucks and 46% for heavy-duty trucks (those with a gross vehicle weight of 12 metric tons or greater).
• A key policy recommendation is the creation of a 'Dual Credit'-type policy for commercial vehicles, similar to the existing framework for cars and SUVs which is described as the main driver for NEV market growth in China.

APA

BUSCH, C., DENG, M., ZHANG, X., & ORVIS, R. (2023). Modeling Climate, Health, and Economic Benefits of Faster New Energy Vehicle Deployment in China. Energy Innovation. https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/ChinaEPS-NEVs.pdf

Chicago

BUSCH, CHRIS, MINSHU DENG, XIULI ZHANG, and ROBBIE ORVIS. Modeling Climate, Health, and Economic Benefits of Faster New Energy Vehicle Deployment in China. Energy Innovation, 2023. https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/ChinaEPS-NEVs.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=BUSCH |first1=CHRIS |last2=DENG |first2=MINSHU |last3=ZHANG |first3=XIULI |last4=ORVIS |first4=ROBBIE |title=Modeling Climate, Health, and Economic Benefits of Faster New Energy Vehicle Deployment in China |publisher=Energy Innovation |date=December 2023 |url=https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/ChinaEPS-NEVs.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{busch2023modeling, author = {BUSCH, CHRIS and DENG, MINSHU and ZHANG, XIULI and ORVIS, ROBBIE}, title = {{Modeling Climate, Health, and Economic Benefits of Faster New Energy Vehicle Deployment in China}}, institution = {Energy Innovation}, year = {2023}, month = dec, url = {https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/ChinaEPS-NEVs.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }