A 1.5°C NDC FOR CLIMATE LEADERSHIP BY THE UNITED STATES

The research paper proposes a comprehensive policy pathway for the United States to reach net-zero emissions by 2050 and a 50% reduction in GHGs by 2030. Using the U.S. Energy Policy Simulator, the authors argue that a small group of targeted policies—specifically a clean electricity standard, zero-emission vehicle mandates, and building electrification—can drive this transition. The analysis suggests that this pathway would not only meet climate goals but also expand the U.S. GDP by $920 billion by 2050 and create nearly 5 million new job-years, while significantly reducing premature deaths and respiratory illnesses due to the phase-out of fossil fuels.

• To align with a 1.5°C trajectory, the United States must achieve a 50 percent reduction in total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2030 and reach net-zero by 2050 relative to 2005 levels.
• The proposed 1.5°C Scenario would result in CO2 emissions being cut by 60 percent and total GHG emissions by 50 percent in 2030, and CO2 by 109 percent and GHG by 90 percent in 2050, relative to 2005 levels.
• A clean electricity standard (CES) requiring 80 percent clean electricity by 2030 and 100 percent by 2035 is identified as a critical policy to enable decarbonization across other sectors like transportation and buildings.
• Eliminating all coal power plant emissions by 2030 is essential; the analysis indicates that a 50 percent reduction in U.S. emissions is impossible without this step.
• The transition to a 1.5°C pathway is projected to have significant economic benefits, including an annual GDP increase of $570 billion by 2030 and $920 billion by 2050, and the creation of nearly 5 million new job-years by 2050.
• Public health improvements from the scenario include avoiding more than 45,000 premature deaths and 1.3 million asthma attacks annually by 2050.
• The scenario requires a massive scale-up of renewable energy, adding an annual average of 123 GW of wind and solar between 2021 and 2030, which is three to four times the 2020 deployment rate.
• Decarbonization of the transportation and building sectors requires phasing out the sale of fossil-fuel engines and appliances, with 100% zero-emission light-duty vehicle and bus sales by 2035 and all new building equipment being electric by 2030.

APA

ORVIS, R., & MAHAJAN, M. (2021). A 1.5°C NDC FOR CLIMATE LEADERSHIP BY THE UNITED STATES. Energy Innovation. https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/A-1.5-C-Pathway-to-Climate-Leadership-for-The-United-States_NDC-update-2.pdf

Chicago

ORVIS, ROBBIE, and MEGAN MAHAJAN. A 1.5°C NDC FOR CLIMATE LEADERSHIP BY THE UNITED STATES. Energy Innovation, 2021. https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/A-1.5-C-Pathway-to-Climate-Leadership-for-The-United-States_NDC-update-2.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=ORVIS |first1=ROBBIE |last2=MAHAJAN |first2=MEGAN |title=A 1.5°C NDC FOR CLIMATE LEADERSHIP BY THE UNITED STATES |publisher=Energy Innovation |date=April 2021 |url=https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/A-1.5-C-Pathway-to-Climate-Leadership-for-The-United-States_NDC-update-2.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{orvis202115c, author = {ORVIS, ROBBIE and MAHAJAN, MEGAN}, title = {{A 1.5°C NDC FOR CLIMATE LEADERSHIP BY THE UNITED STATES}}, institution = {Energy Innovation}, year = {2021}, month = apr, url = {https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/A-1.5-C-Pathway-to-Climate-Leadership-for-The-United-States_NDC-update-2.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }