A 1.5 CELSIUS PATHWAY TO CLIMATE LEADERSHIP FOR THE UNITED STATES

The report proposes a comprehensive policy pathway for the United States to reach net-zero emissions by 2050, aligning with IPCC 1.5 C targets. Central to this strategy is a Clean Electricity Standard (CES) requiring 100% clean electricity by 2035 and the total elimination of coal power by 2030. The pathway includes transitioning to 100% zero-emission vehicle sales for light-duty vehicles by 2035 and all-electric building equipment by 2030. The analysis indicates that this transition would increase U.S. GDP by $997 billion per year by 2050, create 5.5 million new job-years, and avoid over 65,000 premature deaths by 2050.

• To align with a 1.5 C trajectory, the U.S. must implement a Clean Electricity Standard (CES) requiring 80 percent clean electricity in 2030 and 100 percent in 2035. This policy is described as the 'linchpin of economywide decarbonization' because it enables the electrification of other sectors.
• The total elimination of coal-fired power generation by 2030 is essential; the report states that achieving emissions reductions consistent with a 1.5 C limit is 'impossible' without this step.
• Transportation decarbonization requires a transition to 100 percent zero-emission sales for light-duty vehicles and buses by 2035, and for heavy-duty vehicles by 2045.
• Building sector decarbonization necessitates that all new equipment sold be electric by 2030 to ensure the entire building stock is electrified by 2050, with all new buildings being fully electric and net zero by 2035.
• The proposed 1.5 C pathway is projected to provide significant economic growth and employment, increasing U.S. GDP by $489 billion per year in 2030 and $997 billion in 2050, while creating 3.1 million new job-years by 2030 and 5.5 million by 2050.
• The transition would yield substantial public health improvements, avoiding more than 65,000 premature deaths and 2 million asthma attacks by 2050, driven by a nearly 90 percent drop in PM2.5 emissions.
• Delaying the implementation of clean energy policies significantly increases costs; starting in 2021 would require cumulative investments of approximately $320 billion by 2035, whereas delaying until 2030 would increase this cost to roughly $750 billion by 2035.

APA

ORVIS, R. (2021). A 1.5 CELSIUS PATHWAY TO CLIMATE LEADERSHIP FOR THE UNITED STATES. Energy Innovation. https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/A-1.5-C-Pathway-to-Climate-Leadership-for-The-United-States.pdf

Chicago

ORVIS, ROBBIE. A 1.5 CELSIUS PATHWAY TO CLIMATE LEADERSHIP FOR THE UNITED STATES. Energy Innovation, 2021. https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/A-1.5-C-Pathway-to-Climate-Leadership-for-The-United-States.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=ORVIS |first1=ROBBIE |title=A 1.5 CELSIUS PATHWAY TO CLIMATE LEADERSHIP FOR THE UNITED STATES |publisher=Energy Innovation |date=February 2021 |url=https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/A-1.5-C-Pathway-to-Climate-Leadership-for-The-United-States.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{orvis2021celsius, author = {ORVIS, ROBBIE}, title = {{A 1.5 CELSIUS PATHWAY TO CLIMATE LEADERSHIP FOR THE UNITED STATES}}, institution = {Energy Innovation}, year = {2021}, month = feb, url = {https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/A-1.5-C-Pathway-to-Climate-Leadership-for-The-United-States.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }