Energy Crisis Amidst the Ukraine War: Three Scenarios

The document examines how the Russia-Ukraine war has destabilized energy markets, undermining Russia's role as an 'energy superpower' and creating significant economic pressure on the Global South. It presents three scenarios: 'Stable high' prices, 'Persistent volatility', and 'Business as usual', analyzing how each affects national budgets, regional stability in the Middle East and Africa, and the global transition to renewable energy. The authors argue that while the crisis may incentivize some decarbonization, it also risks locking in fossil fuel production in the Global South and prioritizing immediate energy security over Paris Agreement goals.

• The war in Ukraine has undermined Russia's long-term position as a global 'energy superpower' across various resources, including coal and nuclear technologies.
• The energy crisis has negatively impacted the climate agenda, as security challenges have pushed climate goals to a second priority and urgent western government responses have been poorly coordinated and inconsistent with the Paris Agreement.
• In a 'Stable high' scenario, oil prices could plateau between $US 120-150 per barrel, benefiting oil and gas exporters in the Global South while causing economic contraction and instability in low-income importing states, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa and the Pakistan-Afghanistan-Central Asia region.
• A 'Persistent volatility' scenario, characterized by oscillating conflict in Ukraine, would discourage major energy corporations and US shale producers from high-cost investments and hinder renewable energy projects due to unpredictable capital recoupment.
• A 'Business as usual' scenario suggests a mid-term stabilization of oil prices around $US 75 per barrel, potentially facilitated by increased production from Iran and Iraq and a decline in Russian production due to field exhaustion.
• High energy prices create conflicting incentives for the energy transition: they encourage efficiency and electric-powered equipment in developed countries, but may increase coal usage and stimulate new fossil fuel production in Global South nations like Ethiopia, Senegal, and Tanzania, potentially 'locking in' emissions.
• Reducing global market uncertainty depends heavily on de-escalating tensions in the Middle East and the Gulf, specifically regarding the Iranian nuclear program and the relationship between Saudi Arabia and Iran.

APA

Marsh, N., Baev, P. K., & Tzimitras, H. (2022). Energy Crisis Amidst the Ukraine War: Three Scenarios. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/3171183f-14bd-4a74-9b91-6bcb5942e2a4/Baev Marsh Tzimitras - Energy Crisis Amidst the Ukraine War Three Scenarios PRIO Policy Brief 7-2022.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Marsh, Nicholas, Pavel K. Baev, and Harry Tzimitras. Energy Crisis Amidst the Ukraine War: Three Scenarios. Peace Research Institute Oslo, 2022. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/3171183f-14bd-4a74-9b91-6bcb5942e2a4/Baev Marsh Tzimitras - Energy Crisis Amidst the Ukraine War Three Scenarios PRIO Policy Brief 7-2022.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Marsh |first1=Nicholas |last2=Baev |first2=Pavel K. |last3=Tzimitras |first3=Harry |title=Energy Crisis Amidst the Ukraine War: Three Scenarios |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |date=July 2022 |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/3171183f-14bd-4a74-9b91-6bcb5942e2a4/Baev Marsh Tzimitras - Energy Crisis Amidst the Ukraine War Three Scenarios PRIO Policy Brief 7-2022.pdf?inline=true |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{marsh2022energy, author = {Marsh, Nicholas and Baev, Pavel K. and Tzimitras, Harry}, title = {{Energy Crisis Amidst the Ukraine War: Three Scenarios}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, year = {2022}, month = jul, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/3171183f-14bd-4a74-9b91-6bcb5942e2a4/Baev Marsh Tzimitras - Energy Crisis Amidst the Ukraine War Three Scenarios PRIO Policy Brief 7-2022.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }