CLIMATE CHANGE, SECURITY, AND POLITICAL COHERENCE IN THE SOUTH AND EAST CHINA SEAS: A SCENARIOS-BASED ASSESSMENT

The report examines the security implications of climate change in the South and East China Seas, focusing on the interplay between regional political cohesion and food prices. It presents four scenarios—ranging from high cooperation and low prices to high fragmentation and food insecurity—to illustrate potential risks, including social unrest, the failure of governance, and increased Chinese maritime aggression. The analysis emphasizes that climate change acts as a threat multiplier, exacerbating existing geopolitical tensions and socio-economic inequalities in Southeast and East Asia.

• The Asia Pacific region contains more people and infrastructure at risk from climate change than any other global region, yet climate change's security implications are largely absent from regional military discourse.
• Continued reliance on coal and natural gas in Southeast Asia, particularly in Indonesia, Vietnam, and the Philippines, hinders the achievement of climate goals and increases the risk of natural disasters and instability due to depleted resources.
• The report identifies regional political cohesion among ASEAN members, East Asian developed countries, and China, as well as food prices, as the two most critical and uncertain drivers of climate security risks in the region.
• In scenarios of high political fragmentation and high food prices, developing ASEAN countries may become paralyzed, allowing China to aggressively exploit and militarize resource-rich areas of the South China Sea.
• Climate-induced disasters may exacerbate social unrest if humanitarian assistance and disaster response (HA/DR) missions are perceived to favor politically connected or wealthy elites.
• Physical climate projections for the region include a substantial increase in high heat stress days (exceeding 35°C for more than 60 days per year in Southeast Asia by the end of the century), increased flood damage in river basins, and sea-level rise that could make 100-year floods occur annually by mid-century.
• Ocean acidification and nitrogen pollution are degrading marine ecosystems, leading to coral bleaching and the depletion of fish stocks, which may trigger conflicts over remaining resources.

APA

Fleishman, R. (2022). CLIMATE CHANGE, SECURITY, AND POLITICAL COHERENCE IN THE SOUTH AND EAST CHINA SEAS: A SCENARIOS-BASED ASSESSMENT. The Council on Strategic Risks. https://climateandsecurity.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/Climate-Change-Security-and-Political-Coherence-in-the-South-and-East-China-Seas_April-2022.pdf

Chicago

Fleishman, Rachel. CLIMATE CHANGE, SECURITY, AND POLITICAL COHERENCE IN THE SOUTH AND EAST CHINA SEAS: A SCENARIOS-BASED ASSESSMENT. The Council on Strategic Risks, 2022. https://climateandsecurity.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/Climate-Change-Security-and-Political-Coherence-in-the-South-and-East-China-Seas_April-2022.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Fleishman |first1=Rachel |title=CLIMATE CHANGE, SECURITY, AND POLITICAL COHERENCE IN THE SOUTH AND EAST CHINA SEAS: A SCENARIOS-BASED ASSESSMENT |publisher=The Council on Strategic Risks |date=April 2022 |url=https://climateandsecurity.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/Climate-Change-Security-and-Political-Coherence-in-the-South-and-East-China-Seas_April-2022.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{fleishman2022climate, author = {Fleishman, Rachel}, title = {{CLIMATE CHANGE, SECURITY, AND POLITICAL COHERENCE IN THE SOUTH AND EAST CHINA SEAS: A SCENARIOS-BASED ASSESSMENT}}, institution = {The Council on Strategic Risks}, year = {2022}, month = apr, url = {https://climateandsecurity.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/Climate-Change-Security-and-Political-Coherence-in-the-South-and-East-China-Seas_April-2022.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }