DEVELOPMENT PROSPECTS FOR THE HORN OF AFRICA COUNTRIES TO 2040

The document introduces a study on the development prospects of the Horn of Africa (Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia, Sudan, and South Sudan) up to 2040. It highlights the region's challenges, including high poverty, poor state capacity, and a heavy reliance on rain-fed agriculture in an area where 70% of the land is arid or semi-arid. The report aims to establish a 'Current Path' forecast and develop scenarios for a sustainable and peaceful development trajectory.

• The Horn of Africa is characterized by significant socio-economic and governance challenges, including a history of armed conflict, poor state capacity, and high levels of poverty and vulnerability driven by weak infrastructure and frequent droughts.
• The region ranks very low on the Human Development Index, with Sudan ranking 168th and South Sudan ranking 189th according to the 2019 Human Development Report.
• Environmental constraints significantly impact livelihoods, as 70% of the region consists of arid and semi-arid lands, leading to competition over limited natural resources which fuels insecurity and conflict.
• Based on World Bank 2020/21 classifications, Djibouti is categorized as a lower-middle-income economy, while the other countries in the Horn of Africa are classified as low-income.

APA

Yeboua, K., & Cilliers, J. (2022). DEVELOPMENT PROSPECTS FOR THE HORN OF AFRICA COUNTRIES TO 2040. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=region/horn-of-africa&topic=01-introduction

Chicago

Yeboua, Kouassi, and Jakkie Cilliers. DEVELOPMENT PROSPECTS FOR THE HORN OF AFRICA COUNTRIES TO 2040. Institute for Security Studies, 2022. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=region/horn-of-africa&topic=01-introduction.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Yeboua |first1=Kouassi |last2=Cilliers |first2=Jakkie |title=DEVELOPMENT PROSPECTS FOR THE HORN OF AFRICA COUNTRIES TO 2040 |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=27 June 2022 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=region/horn-of-africa&topic=01-introduction |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{yeboua2022development, author = {Yeboua, Kouassi and Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{DEVELOPMENT PROSPECTS FOR THE HORN OF AFRICA COUNTRIES TO 2040}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2022}, month = jun, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=region/horn-of-africa&topic=01-introduction}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }