DEVELOPMENT PROSPECTS FOR THE HORN OF AFRICA COUNTRIES TO 2040

This introduction to a special report by the Institute for Security Studies outlines the socio-economic and ecological challenges facing the Horn of Africa—comprising Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia, Sudan, and South Sudan—and describes the use of the International Futures (IFs) modelling platform to forecast development pathways to 2040.

• The Horn of Africa is characterized by severe development deficits, ranking near the bottom of the Human Development Index. According to the 2019 Human Development Report, the region's nations range from Sudan at 168th to South Sudan at 189th.
• Environmental constraints and resource competition drive insecurity in the region, as 70% of the land consists of arid and semi-arid areas, leaving the majority of the population dependent on pastoralism and rain-fed agriculture.
• Based on World Bank 2020/21 classifications, Djibouti is categorized as a lower-middle-income economy, while the remaining countries in the Horn of Africa are classified as low-income.
• The region is defined by a history of poor governance, state capacity issues, and armed conflict, though Ethiopia is noted for having achieved high economic growth, poverty reduction, and infrastructure improvements.

APA

Yeboua, K., & Cilliers, J. (2022). DEVELOPMENT PROSPECTS FOR THE HORN OF AFRICA COUNTRIES TO 2040. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=region/horn-of-africa&topic=01-introduction

Chicago

Yeboua, Kouassi, and Jakkie Cilliers. DEVELOPMENT PROSPECTS FOR THE HORN OF AFRICA COUNTRIES TO 2040. Institute for Security Studies, 2022. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=region/horn-of-africa&topic=01-introduction.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Yeboua |first1=Kouassi |last2=Cilliers |first2=Jakkie |title=DEVELOPMENT PROSPECTS FOR THE HORN OF AFRICA COUNTRIES TO 2040 |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=27 June 2022 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=region/horn-of-africa&topic=01-introduction |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{yeboua2022development, author = {Yeboua, Kouassi and Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{DEVELOPMENT PROSPECTS FOR THE HORN OF AFRICA COUNTRIES TO 2040}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2022}, month = jun, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=region/horn-of-africa&topic=01-introduction}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }