Search Climate Insights Directory

The report analyzes global and African energy trends, forecasting a significant increase in energy demand driven by population growth. It details the slow decline of fossil fuels and predicts specific transition points where renewables and gas will overtake other energy sources in both global and African contexts.

The document argues that biogas and biomethane should primarily be reserved for hard-to-abate sectors like petrochemical production and industrial heating, as electrification via renewable energy is more cost-effective for power and heat. It highlights that biogas only addresses a minority of agricultural emissions (at most 28.9%) and warns that scaling production to meet targets, such as the EU's 35 bcm goal by 2030, could threaten food security by requiring significant arable land. Additionally, the briefing notes risks from fugitive methane emissions, high reliance on public subsidies, and safety hazards including explosions and toxicity.

The report demonstrates that Europe can achieve a 94-96% clean power system by 2035 at no extra cost compared to stated policies, provided wind and solar deployment quadruples. This transition would enable wider electrification, potentially halving fossil fuel consumption by 2030 and saving between €530 billion and €1 trillion by 2035. Key requirements include expanding interconnection, deploying electrolysers for green hydrogen, and phasing out coal by 2030 and unabated baseload gas after 2025.

The Climate Action Tracker finds that COVID-19 recovery packages in major emitting economies lack detailed green planning, with quantifiable interventions representing only a small fraction of total GDP investments. While the pandemic may lower emissions by 2030, this is attributed to economic downturn rather than structural decarbonisation, leaving global warming projections at 2.9°C based on current policies, far exceeding the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C limit.

The document finds that GHG mitigation policies significantly improve air quality by reducing emissions of sulphur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and particulate matter. In the EU27, this leads to substantial health gains, including an increase in average life expectancy by one month by 2050 and annual economic co-benefits ranging from €44 billion to €95 billion. The analysis also highlights significant benefits in China and India, where life expectancy gains are estimated at 19 and 30 months respectively by 2050. Additionally, mitigation reduces regulatory abatement costs for businesses and lessens the acidification and eutrophication of ecosystems.

The ClimateCost project estimates significant health risks for Europe under a medium-to-high emission (A1B) scenario, with heat-related mortality and coastal flooding causing the highest welfare costs. Heat-related deaths are projected to reach 127,000 per year by the 2080s, though this is reduced by acclimatisation and mitigation (E1 scenario). Salmonellosis cases and labour productivity losses are also expected to rise, particularly in Southern Europe. The report highlights that technical adaptation, such as sea dikes, can drastically reduce coastal flood fatalities, while other health adaptation measures remain under-researched.

The document analyzes river flood risks in the EU27, finding that combined climate and socio-economic changes could increase expected annual damages (EAD) from €5.5 billion in the baseline period to €97.9 billion by the 2080s under a medium-high emission scenario (A1B). It emphasizes that socio-economic growth is as significant a driver of damage as climate change. Adaptation to maintain 1-in-100-year protection levels is projected to provide substantial benefits, reducing EAD by up to €50 billion per year by the 2080s, with estimated annual adaptation costs rising to €7.9 billion in the same period. The report highlights significant uncertainty across different climate models, which can project opposite directions of risk change at local levels, necessitating flexible and robust adaptation strategies.

The report analyzes the aluminium sector's exposure to carbon leakage, finding that while the sector as a whole is trade-intensive, the risk varies by product. Unwrought non-alloy aluminium is identified as particularly vulnerable due to high trade and CO2 intensity, whereas secondary aluminium and semi-fabricated products pose lower risks. The study highlights a shift in primary production capacity toward China and the Middle East, while the EU27 remains a leader in recycling but continues to export scrap to China.

The report analyzes the pulp, paper, and paperboard sectors, finding that while both are classified as at risk of carbon leakage under EU ETS criteria, the drivers of trade intensity are often related to biomass availability and market effects rather than carbon pricing. It highlights a trend of the EU importing raw pulp and low-quality paper while exporting high-quality products, and notes that the export of recovered paper to China may cause 'negative carbon leakage' by depriving EU producers of low-emission raw materials.

The report finds that climate change will increase summer cooling demand and decrease winter heating demand in Europe, with the A1B scenario leading to significantly higher costs. While physical energy reductions in heating are larger than cooling increases, the higher cost of electricity for cooling makes the economic impacts more balanced. The study also identifies risks to energy supply, including reduced hydroelectricity generation and lower efficiency for thermal and nuclear power plants due to higher temperatures. Adaptation measures, such as low-energy buildings, are discussed but noted as having a low evidence base for cost-benefit analysis.