The ClimateCost Project. Final Report. Volume 1: Europe

This technical policy briefing note from the ClimateCost project assesses the potential health impacts and economic costs of climate change in Europe, specifically focusing on heat-related mortality, food-borne diseases, coastal flooding, and labour productivity. It compares a medium-to-high emission scenario (A1B) with a mitigation scenario (E1) and evaluates the role of adaptation and autonomous acclimatisation in reducing these risks.

• Under the A1B scenario without mitigation or adaptation, heat-related deaths in the EU27 are projected to increase from 26,000 per year in the 2020s to 89,000 in the 2050s and 127,000 in the 2080s. Southern Europe is expected to experience relatively higher levels of these climate-attributable deaths.
• The economic cost of heat-related mortality varies by valuation method. Using the Value of a Statistical Life (VSL) approach under the A1B scenario, welfare costs are estimated at €31 billion/year by the 2020s, €103 billion/year by the 2050s, and €147 billion/year by the 2080s. These costs are over an order of magnitude lower when using the Value of a Life Year Lost (VOLY) approach.
• Autonomous acclimatisation significantly reduces projected heat-related mortality. Under the A1B scenario, the number of deaths falls to 13,000/year in the 2020s, 44,000/year in the 2050s, and 40,000/year in the 2080s.
• Climate change is projected to increase salmonellosis cases in the EU27. Under the A1B scenario with current baseline incidence, cases could rise by 7,000/year by the 2020s, 13,000 by the 2050s, and 17,000 by the 2080s. If a baseline decline in incidence is assumed, these figures are 5.5, 8.8, and 9.3 thousand cases/year respectively.
• Coastal flooding is expected to cause 130 deaths/year in the EU by the 2050s and 650 deaths/year by the 2080s under the A1B scenario, with two-thirds of these occurring in Western Europe. Technical adaptation, such as dikes, could reduce these risks to fewer than 10 deaths per year by 2080.
• Heat stress is projected to reduce labour productivity, particularly in Southern Europe. Under the A1B scenario, Southern Europe may see a mean loss of productive days between 0.4% and 0.9% by the 2080s. Total productivity losses for Europe are estimated between €300 million and €740 million per year in the 2080s.
• The E1 mitigation scenario, aligned with the EU 2°C target, significantly reduces health impacts. By the 2080s, heat-related deaths fall to 70,000/year (compared to 127,000 in A1B), and the associated welfare costs (using VSL) are reduced to €80 billion/year.

APA

Stockholm Environment Institute (2011). The ClimateCost Project. Final Report. Volume 1: Europe. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/sei-climatecost-health.pdf

Chicago

Stockholm Environment Institute. The ClimateCost Project. Final Report. Volume 1: Europe. 2011. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/sei-climatecost-health.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Stockholm Environment Institute |title=The ClimateCost Project. Final Report. Volume 1: Europe |date=December 2011 |url=https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/sei-climatecost-health.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{stockholmenvironmentinstitute2011climatecost, author = {{Stockholm Environment Institute}}, title = {{The ClimateCost Project. Final Report. Volume 1: Europe}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2011}, month = dec, url = {https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/sei-climatecost-health.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }