The ClimateCost Project. Final Report. Volume 1: Europe

The ClimateCost project estimates significant health risks for Europe under a medium-to-high emission (A1B) scenario, with heat-related mortality and coastal flooding causing the highest welfare costs. Heat-related deaths are projected to reach 127,000 per year by the 2080s, though this is reduced by acclimatisation and mitigation (E1 scenario). Salmonellosis cases and labour productivity losses are also expected to rise, particularly in Southern Europe. The report highlights that technical adaptation, such as sea dikes, can drastically reduce coastal flood fatalities, while other health adaptation measures remain under-researched.

• Under the A1B scenario without mitigation or adaptation, heat-related deaths in Europe are projected to increase from 26,000 per year in the 2020s to 89,000 in the 2050s and 127,000 in the 2080s, with higher relative risks in Southern Europe.
• The economic welfare costs of heat-related mortality vary by valuation method; using the Value of a Statistical Life (VSL) approach, costs are estimated at €31 billion/year by the 2020s, €103 billion/year by the 2050s, and €147 billion/year by the 2080s under the A1B scenario.
• Implementing an E1 stabilisation scenario (limiting warming to less than 2°C) significantly reduces heat-related mortality to 69,000 deaths per year by the 2050s and 2080s, with associated welfare costs of €80 billion/year by the 2050s using the VSL approach.
• Autonomous acclimatisation significantly lowers projected heat-related deaths under the A1B scenario to 13,000 per year in the 2020s, 44,000 in the 2050s, and 40,000 in the 2080s.
• Climate change is projected to increase salmonellosis cases in the EU27 under the A1B scenario to 7,000 per year by the 2020s, 13,000 by the 2050s, and 17,000 by the 2080s if current incidence levels persist.
• Coastal flooding is expected to cause 130 deaths per year in the EU by the 2050s and 650 deaths per year by the 2080s under the A1B scenario, with two-thirds of these fatalities occurring in Western Europe.
• Technical adaptation, specifically the use of sea dikes, can reduce coastal flood-related deaths from 650 per year to fewer than 10 per year by 2080, lowering residual welfare costs to approximately €5 million/year under the A1B scenario.
• Labour productivity in Southern Europe is projected to decline by 0.4% to 0.9% in terms of days lost by the 2080s under the A1B scenario, with total European productivity losses estimated between €300 and €740 million per year.

APA

Stockholm Environment Institute (2011). The ClimateCost Project. Final Report. Volume 1: Europe. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/sei-climatecost-health.pdf

Chicago

Stockholm Environment Institute. The ClimateCost Project. Final Report. Volume 1: Europe. 2011. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/sei-climatecost-health.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Stockholm Environment Institute |title=The ClimateCost Project. Final Report. Volume 1: Europe |date=December 2011 |url=https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/sei-climatecost-health.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{stockholmenvironmentinstitute2011climatecost, author = {{Stockholm Environment Institute}}, title = {{The ClimateCost Project. Final Report. Volume 1: Europe}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2011}, month = dec, url = {https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/sei-climatecost-health.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }