Background note on Africa’s Current Path Energy Future to 2043

The report analyzes global and African energy trends, forecasting a significant increase in energy demand driven by population growth. It details the slow decline of fossil fuels and predicts specific transition points where renewables and gas will overtake other energy sources in both global and African contexts.

• Global energy demand is projected to grow faster than the population, increasing from 94.8 BBOE in 2023 to 124.1 BBOE by 2043, which represents a 31% increase compared to a 15% population increase.
• Fossil fuels (oil, coal, and gas) have maintained a share of over 80% of global energy production for the last twenty years, and this share is decreasing more slowly than is necessary to prevent rapid climate change.
• Global energy production is expected to reach several transition points by 2043: gas production is forecast to overtake coal in 2026 and oil in 2031, while 'other renewables' are expected to overtake nuclear in 2024 and coal in 2040.
• In Africa, energy production is dominated by oil (45.8%) and gas (32.3%) as of 2023. Forecasts indicate gas will overtake oil in 2028, and other renewables will overtake hydro in 2033 and coal in 2042.
• Driven by population growth, Africa's share of global energy demand is projected to rise from 4.35% in 2019 to 14.82% by 2063, with its demand expected to exceed that of the EU27 in 2043.

APA

Cilliers, J. (2023). Background note on Africa’s Current Path Energy Future to 2043. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=other/Energy&topic=01-history

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie. Background note on Africa’s Current Path Energy Future to 2043. Institute for Security Studies, 2023. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=other/Energy&topic=01-history.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |title=Background note on Africa’s Current Path Energy Future to 2043 |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=9 November 2023 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=other/Energy&topic=01-history |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2023background, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{Background note on Africa’s Current Path Energy Future to 2043}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2023}, month = nov, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=other/Energy&topic=01-history}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }