Background note on Africa’s Current Path Energy Future to 2043

This background note provides historical data and forecasts for global and African energy demand and production up to 2043, highlighting the role of population growth in driving energy needs and the slow transition away from fossil fuels.

• Global energy demand is increasing faster than the global population. While the world population is projected to grow by 15% from 8 billion in 2023 to 9.2 billion in 2043, energy demand is forecast to increase by 31%, rising from 94.8 BBOE to 124.1 BBOE in 2043.
• Fossil fuels (oil, coal, and gas) have maintained a share of over 80% of global energy production for the last twenty years, and this share is decreasing more slowly than is necessary to prevent rapid climate change. In 2023, the global energy mix consisted of oil (31%), coal (29%), gas (27%), nuclear (5.4%), hydro (2.9%), and 'other renewables' such as wind and sun (4.8%).
• Global energy production is expected to reach several transition points by 2043: gas production is forecast to overtake coal in 2026 and oil in 2031. 'Other renewables' are projected to overtake nuclear in 2024, coal in 2040, oil in 2044, and gas in 2049.
• Africa's energy production in 2023 was dominated by oil (45.8%) and gas (32.3%), followed by coal (17.3%), hydro (2.5%), and other renewables (1.6%). Forecasted transition points for Africa include gas overtaking oil in 2028, and other renewables overtaking hydro in 2033 and coal in 2042.
• Driven by a growing population that surpassed those of China and India in 2023, Africa's share of global energy demand is projected to rise from 4.35% in 2019 to 14.82% by 2063. Under the Current Path forecast, Africa's energy demand will exceed that of the EU27 in 2043, the USA and India in 2050, and China in 2079.

APA

Cilliers, J. (2023). Background note on Africa’s Current Path Energy Future to 2043. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=other/Energy&topic=01-history

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie. Background note on Africa’s Current Path Energy Future to 2043. Institute for Security Studies, 2023. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=other/Energy&topic=01-history.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |title=Background note on Africa’s Current Path Energy Future to 2043 |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=9 November 2023 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=other/Energy&topic=01-history |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2023background, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{Background note on Africa’s Current Path Energy Future to 2043}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2023}, month = nov, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=other/Energy&topic=01-history}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }