Scenario-based Analysis: Levant

The report assesses the climate security landscape of the Levant, focusing on the interplay between governance, cooperation, and technology. It identifies severe heatwaves, rainfall reduction, and water scarcity as primary physical risks. Through four scenarios, the authors argue that while large-scale projects require stable governance and cross-border agreements, the widespread availability of small-scale adaptive technologies could provide a critical resilience pathway for populations in states with poor or predatory governance.

• The Levant region faces significant near-term climate risks, including more intense and frequent summer heatwaves, a reduction in rainfall, and increased meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological droughts.
• Climate change is expected to exacerbate existing regional tensions, particularly regarding hydro-politics and disputes over surface water and aquifers in the Jordan River basin and the Euphrates River.
• The report identifies a critical link between state capacity and adaptive capacity, noting that states like Lebanon and Syria, which suffer from bankruptcy and civil conflict, are less able to implement large-scale adaptations.
• Small-scale adaptive technologies—such as inexpensive solar panels, water-from-atmosphere technology, and greenhouse farming—could enable societies to cope with climate impacts even in the absence of supportive or effective governance.
• The 2021 agreement between Jordan and Israel to exchange solar power for desalinated water, financed by the UAE, serves as a model for large-scale, cross-border climate adaptation, though it highlights the exclusion of other regional actors like Palestinians, Syria, and Lebanon.
• In scenarios of high fragmentation and low cooperation, the distribution of adaptive technologies may be manipulated by powerful groups or used as leverage, potentially excluding marginalized populations such as refugees.

APA

Bentley, R., Hugh, B., & Schoonover, D. R. (2022). Scenario-based Analysis: Levant. The Council on Strategic Risks. https://climateandsecurity.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Scenario-based-Analysis-Levant-Weathering-Risk.pdf

Chicago

Bentley, Robert, Brigitte Hugh, and Dr. Rod Schoonover. Scenario-based Analysis: Levant. The Council on Strategic Risks, 2022. https://climateandsecurity.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Scenario-based-Analysis-Levant-Weathering-Risk.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Bentley |first1=Robert |last2=Hugh |first2=Brigitte |last3=Schoonover |first3=Dr. Rod |title=Scenario-based Analysis: Levant |publisher=The Council on Strategic Risks |date=April 2022 |url=https://climateandsecurity.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Scenario-based-Analysis-Levant-Weathering-Risk.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{bentley2022scenariobased, author = {Bentley, Robert and Hugh, Brigitte and Schoonover, Dr. Rod}, title = {{Scenario-based Analysis: Levant}}, institution = {The Council on Strategic Risks}, year = {2022}, month = apr, url = {https://climateandsecurity.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Scenario-based-Analysis-Levant-Weathering-Risk.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }