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The 2026 floods in Upper Assam, which affected over 500,000 people and caused at least 99 deaths, were driven by high exposure and structural vulnerability rather than climate-driven rainfall increases. Analysis shows the rainfall events had return periods of less than two years and that human-induced warming of 1.4°C did not materially alter their likelihood or intensity. The study highlights that unplanned urbanization, deforestation, and colonial land policies have increased vulnerability, while reliance on rigid embankments has proven insufficient for adaptation.

Between 20–22 June 2026, the Gulf of Guinea coast experienced severe flooding following intense rainfall, with over 140 mm falling in less than 24 hours in some areas. The event caused significant fatalities in Côte d’Ivoire (59 since May), Ghana (at least 34), and Togo (five). An attribution study found that observed 3-day rainfall intensity in the region has increased by approximately 23% since records began, making such events about five times more likely in the current climate (1.4°C warmer than pre-industrial levels) than in a cooler climate. While climate models support the trend of increasing precipitation, they systematically underestimate the observed increase, with models showing only a 4% increase in intensity. The study highlights that rapid urbanisation, the expansion of settlements into floodplains, and sea level rise exceeding the global average have compounded flood risks. Under a future warming scenario of 2.8°C, these heavy rainfall events are expected to become common occurrences.

The report projects Togo's development to 2043, highlighting a transition toward solar energy and urbanisation, while noting that population growth may outpace poverty reduction on the current path. It assesses how targeted improvements in agriculture, trade, and governance could significantly boost GDP per capita and reduce extreme poverty, though such growth is linked to increased carbon emissions.

The report projects that Seychelles' GDP per capita will rise to US$33,409 by 2043 under the Current Path, though poverty remains high at 49.7%. While the economy is dominated by services and tourism, it faces food insecurity and an ageing population. Sectoral interventions in free trade and manufacturing offer the highest potential for GDP growth, while a 'Leapfrogging' scenario is the only one to reduce carbon emissions. The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario could increase GDP per capita to US$42,695 and reduce extreme poverty to 40.44%, albeit with a rise in carbon emissions to 241,380 tons.

The report forecasts Equatorial Guinea's development through 2043, highlighting a stark contrast between high GDP per capita driven by oil and extreme poverty. It predicts rapid urbanization, a shift from oil to gas production, and a widening gap in agricultural self-sufficiency.

The report projects that Guinea-Bissau's population will grow to 3.2 million by 2043, with a shift toward an urban-majority population. While GDP is expected to quadruple on the Current Path, extreme poverty will remain high. The report evaluates 11 sectoral scenarios, identifying agriculture and free trade as the most potent drivers for increasing GDP per capita and reducing poverty. A combined Agenda 2063 scenario suggests a potential GDP of US$16.4 billion and a significant reduction in poverty to 14.9% of the population, though this would be accompanied by an increase in carbon emissions to 1.2 million tons.

The report analyzes Malawi's development futures, noting that while a 'Combined scenario' shows GDP per capita 35% higher than the 'Current Path' by 2043, this is insufficient to reach lower-middle-income status by 2030. It highlights persistent gaps in urbanization, industrialization, and healthcare, while emphasizing the critical impact of climate variability on rain-fed agriculture. Key recommendations include expanding Special Economic Zones, adopting climate-smart agriculture, and implementing nature-based solutions for flood prevention.

The report projects that Morocco's GDP could reach US$384 billion by 2043 in a combined scenario of sectoral interventions, making it Africa's sixth-largest economy. Key growth drivers include transitions to high-value manufacturing, improvements in education and health, and the full implementation of the AfCFTA. The document recommends strategic investments in renewable energy, water management, and infrastructure to mitigate challenges like water scarcity and energy dependence.

The report forecasts that sub-Saharan Africa's population will grow to 1.962 billion by 2043, with a significant shift toward urbanization. While regional GDP is projected to increase substantially, reaching between US$6.2 trillion and US$6.7 trillion, GDP per capita growth is tempered by rapid population increases. The region is expected to face increasing food insecurity as agricultural demand outstrips production. Energy production is projected to shift toward renewables, yet total carbon emissions are forecast to rise by over 146% by 2043, with Nigeria expected to overtake South Africa as the region's largest emitter.

In February 2026, intense rainfall in Minas Gerais, Brazil, caused over 70 deaths and displaced nearly 10,000 people, with Juiz de Fora being the most affected city. While climate models project a 7% increase in February rainfall with future warming, the immediate severity of the disaster was driven by high social vulnerability and unplanned urban expansion on steep slopes. Risk assessments had previously identified 130,000 residents in high-risk zones in Juiz de Fora. The study found that while early warnings were issued, topographical constraints and a lack of evacuation options hindered their effectiveness.

A World Weather Attribution study examines the role of climate change and natural variability in the devastating floods of November 2025 across Sri Lanka and the Malacca Strait. While observational data indicate a significant increase in the intensity of extreme 5-day rainfall events—up to 160% in Sri Lanka and 50% in the Malacca Strait due to a 1.3°C rise in global temperatures—climate models failed to consistently capture these trends, preventing a definitive quantitative attribution. The study also notes that La Niña and a negative Indian Ocean Dipole contributed between 5% and 13% to the rainfall in the Malacca Strait, while rapid urbanization and infrastructure failures exacerbated the humanitarian impact.

The cement and concrete sector accounts for nearly 8 percent of global carbon dioxide emissions, primarily due to clinker production. Decarbonization requires a three-pronged innovation approach: 'Make Less' (reducing demand through design and efficiency), 'Make Better' (improving existing processes via supplementary cementitious materials and carbon storage), and 'Make New' (developing disruptive, zero-clinker chemistries and electrified production). While near-zero emission cement currently represents less than 1 percent of the market, the report highlights that scaling these technologies requires overcoming fragmented markets, outdated prescriptive standards, and a significant funding gap, as the sector has received less than 1 percent of climate tech venture capital over the last five years.

An event attribution study on the October 2025 floods in eastern Mexico found that the onset of La Niña heightened the likelihood and intensity of heavy rainfall. While climate models and observational datasets showed conflicting trends regarding the long-term impact of climate change on regional rainfall, the study emphasizes that vulnerability was amplified by rapid urbanization, informal settlements, and chronic underinvestment in indigenous and rural communities.

The report examines the evolution of state governance in the Global South, utilizing World Bank governance indicators and four global scenarios (Growth, Sustainable, Divided, and War) to project potential outcomes. It highlights a critical gap between political participation and institutional performance, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America, and warns of the systemic risks posed by rising debt, digital divides, and climate vulnerability. The analysis suggests that future state legitimacy will shift from procedural norms toward tangible performance and hybrid governance models that integrate traditional and non-state authorities.

The document argues that while the core vision of the 1998 White Paper on Local Government remains relevant, the operational assumptions—particularly regarding funding and administration—are outdated. PARI identifies a cycle of decline driven by financial stress, patronage-based appointments, and infrastructure decay. It proposes a differentiated local government design where powers and functions are allocated based on a municipality's capacity and location in the space-economy. Key recommendations include reforming the political-administrative interface to reduce patronage, establishing clear affordability standards for basic services, and integrating climate-appropriate infrastructure requirements into the updated policy framework.

The study analyzed rainfall events in Colombia and Venezuela, finding that the June 2025 floods were not meteorologically extreme, with return periods of 10 and 3 years respectively. While some data suggests a slight decrease in rainfall likelihood and intensity in a cooler climate, high uncertainty remains due to model disagreement and a lack of high-quality in-situ weather data in northern South America. The report emphasizes that vulnerability is exacerbated by informal urbanization, deforestation, and socio-economic instability, necessitating increased investment in weather monitoring and climate resilience to manage both droughts and intense downpours.

Nigeria possesses a significant 'youth bulge', with approximately 70% of its population under 30 and a median age of 18.1 years. While this presents an opportunity for a 'demographic dividend'—accelerated economic growth driven by a large working-age population—the document warns that failure to invest in human capital and economic reform could lead to a 'demographic disaster'. Key obstacles include high youth unemployment (estimated at 53.4% for ages 15–24 in 2020), a mono-economy dependent on crude oil, and an education system that fails to align curricula with market needs. The brief argues that unlocking this potential requires a multi-pronged approach focusing on human capital, economic opportunity, gender equality, and effective governance.

The document examines how rapidly growing cities in India and Kenya rely on informal, decentralized water solutions—termed 'gridless water configurations'—to bridge gaps in failing or insufficient centralized infrastructure. It highlights the risks of unregulated groundwater extraction and social inequality, while proposing that water authorities formally recognize and co-design these systems with local communities to create more resilient and equitable urban water governance.

The document outlines the complexities of climate migration, emphasizing that most displacement occurs internally and is often driven by a combination of extreme weather and systemic vulnerabilities. It provides practical interviewing advice for reporters and lists specific global examples—from the Marshall Islands to Senegal—to illustrate the diverse ways communities face environmental displacement.

A case study in Bharatpur, Nepal, identifies dengue fever and skin infections as prevalent infectious diseases, linked to poor waste management and inadequate sanitation. While nature-based solutions like green streets and rainwater harvesting can mitigate hazards by filtering water and reducing temperatures, the study concludes that NBS cannot replace essential urban infrastructure and services to improve public health outcomes.