Seychelles Development Futures

The report projects that Seychelles' GDP per capita will rise to US$33,409 by 2043 under the Current Path, though poverty remains high at 49.7%. While the economy is dominated by services and tourism, it faces food insecurity and an ageing population. Sectoral interventions in free trade and manufacturing offer the highest potential for GDP growth, while a 'Leapfrogging' scenario is the only one to reduce carbon emissions. The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario could increase GDP per capita to US$42,695 and reduce extreme poverty to 40.44%, albeit with a rise in carbon emissions to 241,380 tons.

• Under the Current Path forecast, Seychelles' population is expected to grow from 97,500 in 2019 to 103,400 by 2043, with urbanisation increasing from 58.6% to 74% in the same period.
• The economy is heavily reliant on the service sector, particularly tourism, which contributed 50% of GDP and 70% of foreign exchange earnings in 2019. GDP per capita is projected to increase from US$15,500 in 1990 to US$30,673 in 2019, reaching US$33,409 by 2043 on the Current Path.
• Despite being a high-income economy, Seychelles faces significant poverty; 48.2% of the population lived below the US$22.70 daily poverty line in 2019, and this is forecast to be 49.7% by 2043 under the Current Path.
• Energy production is shifting from coal to gas; the share of gas is forecast to increase from 27.3% in 2019 to 42.9% by 2043, while coal is expected to drop from 45.5% to 23.8%. Renewable energy is projected to comprise 5% of production by 2043.
• Carbon emissions are on a rising trend since 2011 and are projected to reach 218,170 tons by 2043. The Free Trade scenario is expected to cause the highest increase (approximately 6,500 tons more than the Current Path), while the Leapfrogging scenario is the only one that reduces emissions.
• The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, integrating 11 sectoral improvements, could increase GDP per capita to US$42,695 and reduce the number of people living below the poverty line to 42,000 (40.44% of the population) by 2043.

APA

Jobarteh, M. (2026). Seychelles Development Futures. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=SC&topic=current-path

Chicago

Jobarteh, Mustapha. Seychelles Development Futures. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=SC&topic=current-path.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Jobarteh |first1=Mustapha |title=Seychelles Development Futures |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=15 June 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=SC&topic=current-path |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{jobarteh2026seychelles, author = {Jobarteh, Mustapha}, title = {{Seychelles Development Futures}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = jun, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=SC&topic=current-path}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }