ISS African Futures

This report provides a development forecast for Seychelles up to 2043, comparing a 'Current Path' scenario based on existing policies with various sectoral improvement scenarios and a combined 'Agenda 2063' scenario. It analyzes demographics, economic growth, poverty, energy, and carbon emissions, highlighting the country's high-income status in Africa but persistent challenges with poverty and food security.

• Under the Current Path forecast, Seychelles' population is projected to grow from 97,500 in 2019 to 103,400 by 2043, with urbanisation increasing from 58.6% to 74% in the same period.
• The economy is heavily reliant on the service sector, particularly tourism, which contributed 50% of GDP and 70% of total foreign exchange earnings in 2019. GDP is forecast to grow from US$1.6 billion in 2019 to US$2.3 billion by 2043 on the Current Path.
• Despite being Africa's only high-income economy, Seychelles faces high poverty rates. On the Current Path, 49.7% of the population (0.051 million people) are forecast to live below the poverty line of US$22.70 per day in 2043, compared to 48.2% in 2019.
• Seychelles is highly dependent on food imports, with domestic production meeting only about one-third of demand. In 2019, the gap between demand and production was 625,000 tons, and it is projected to increase to 709,000 tons by 2043.
• Energy production is shifting from coal to gas; the share of gas is forecast to increase from 27.3% in 2019 to 42.9% by 2043, while coal is expected to drop from 45.5% to 23.8%.
• The 'Combined Agenda 2063' scenario, which integrates 11 sectoral improvements, could increase GDP per capita to US$42,695 by 2043 (compared to US$33,409 on the Current Path) and reduce the number of people in extreme poverty to 42,000 (40.44% of the population).
• Carbon emissions are projected to rise from 156,760 tons in 2019 to 218,170 tons by 2043 on the Current Path. The Free Trade scenario is expected to cause the highest increase, reaching 224,580 tons by 2043.

APA

Institute for Security Studies (n.d.). ISS African Futures. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=SC&topic=current-path

Chicago

Institute for Security Studies. ISS African Futures. n.d. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=SC&topic=current-path.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Institute for Security Studies |title=ISS African Futures |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=SC&topic=current-path |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{instituteforsecuritystudiesndiss, author = {{Institute for Security Studies}}, title = {{ISS African Futures}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=SC&topic=current-path}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }