L’avenir des États du Sud global

This report by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the future of state governance in the Global South over the next two decades. It examines how demographic shifts, climate change, digital revolutions, and geopolitical multipolarity redefine state legitimacy and function. The study utilizes World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) and strategic foresight to propose four global scenarios—Growth, Sustainable, Divided, and War—and four state archetypes—Negotiator, System Builder, Fractured, and Collapsed—to help policymakers build institutional resilience.

• There is a significant disconnect in several Global South regions, particularly Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America, between political participation and institutional performance. While these regions may show relatively high scores in 'Voice and Accountability,' they often suffer from low 'Government Effectiveness' and 'Regulatory Quality,' a phenomenon described as 'premature democratization.'
• The report identifies a shift toward 'performative states' where legitimacy is increasingly derived from tangible results—such as infrastructure and service delivery—rather than procedural democratic norms or ideology. This 'results-based governance' risks prioritizing short-term visible gains over structural reforms and inclusive political processes.
• Global debt is presented as a structural threat to the budgetary sovereignty and legitimacy of Global South states. In 2023, global public debt reached $97 trillion, with developing countries' borrowings increasing twice as fast as those of developed economies since 2010. For many, interest payments now exceed investments in health or education.
• Digital transformation is creating a paradox of 'digital repression' alongside 'digital dependence.' While states rely on foreign-hosted cloud servers and algorithms, many governments—including those in Ethiopia, Sudan, and Senegal—have used internet shutdowns to stifle mobilization during elections or protests.
• The report outlines four future state archetypes based on global conditions: the 'Negotiator' (prioritizes growth and investor appeal over inclusion), the 'System Builder' (focuses on long-term resilience and equitable redistribution), the 'Fractured State' (characterized by hybrid, contested authority and reactive crisis management), and the 'Collapsed State' (where governance is reduced to coercion and territorial control by elites or warlords).
• Demographic trends present a 'demographic dividend' opportunity, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa, where over 70% of the population is under 30. However, this can become a 'demographic burden' if states fail to provide education, healthcare, and employment, potentially leading to social instability.
• Climate change acts as a systemic stressor that forces a dilemma between immediate economic stability and long-term sustainability. States dependent on fossil fuels, such as Nigeria, India, and Indonesia, argue for flexible transition paths to avoid economic destabilization and social unrest.
• Governance in the Global South is increasingly 'hybrid,' with authority shared between formal state structures and informal actors, including traditional chiefs, religious institutions, and non-state armed groups. The report argues that the state's future role is not to regain a monopoly on power but to act as a facilitator of these diverse sources of legitimacy.

APA

Cilliers, J., & van Rooyen, M. (2025). L’avenir des États du Sud global. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/export/sites/afi/reports/pdfs/AFI-Thematic-Futures-State-Futures-in-the-Global-South_FR.pdf

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie, and Michelle van Rooyen. L’avenir des États du Sud global. Institute for Security Studies, 2025. https://futures.issafrica.org/export/sites/afi/reports/pdfs/AFI-Thematic-Futures-State-Futures-in-the-Global-South_FR.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |last2=van Rooyen |first2=Michelle |title=L’avenir des États du Sud global |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=26 September 2025 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/export/sites/afi/reports/pdfs/AFI-Thematic-Futures-State-Futures-in-the-Global-South_FR.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2025lavenir, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie and van Rooyen, Michelle}, title = {{L’avenir des États du Sud global}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2025}, month = sep, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/export/sites/afi/reports/pdfs/AFI-Thematic-Futures-State-Futures-in-the-Global-South_FR.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }