L’avenir des États du Sud global

The report examines the evolution of state governance in the Global South, utilizing World Bank governance indicators and four global scenarios (Growth, Sustainable, Divided, and War) to project potential outcomes. It highlights a critical gap between political participation and institutional performance, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America, and warns of the systemic risks posed by rising debt, digital divides, and climate vulnerability. The analysis suggests that future state legitimacy will shift from procedural norms toward tangible performance and hybrid governance models that integrate traditional and non-state authorities.

• There is a significant disconnect between political participation and governance capacity in low-income regions like Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America, where high scores in 'voice and accountability' have not translated into improved government effectiveness or regulatory quality, a phenomenon termed 'premature democratization'.
• Global public debt reached a record 97 trillion USD in 2023, with developing countries seeing borrowing increase twice as fast as developed economies since 2010; over 40% of the global population lives in countries where interest payments exceed investments in health or education.
• The report identifies a shift toward 'performative states' where legitimacy is increasingly based on tangible results—such as infrastructure and service delivery—rather than democratic procedures or institutional forms.
• Digital governance in the Global South is characterized by a paradox of external dependence on foreign platforms and internal state repression, evidenced by a record 296 internet shutdowns across 54 countries in 2024.
• State authority in the Global South is becoming increasingly hybrid, with power shared between formal governments, traditional authorities, religious institutions, and non-state armed actors, particularly in rural or fragile environments.
• The report projects four distinct state archetypes based on global conditions: the 'Negotiator' (prioritizing growth and investor interests), the 'System Builder' (focusing on resilience and inclusive reform), the 'Fractured State' (unstable and fragmented), and the 'Collapsed State' (relying on coercion and chaos).
• Climate change acts as a systemic stressor for the Global South, creating a dilemma between the need for an equitable energy transition and the economic reliance on fossil fuels for employment and industrial growth in countries like India, Indonesia, and Nigeria.
• Demographic trends present a potential 'demographic dividend' for Sub-Saharan Africa, but this requires robust governance in education and health to avoid becoming a 'demographic burden' that fuels instability.

APA

Cilliers, J., & van Rooyen, M. (2025). L’avenir des États du Sud global. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/export/sites/afi/reports/pdfs/AFI-Thematic-Futures-State-Futures-in-the-Global-South_FR.pdf

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie, and Michelle van Rooyen. L’avenir des États du Sud global. Institute for Security Studies, 2025. https://futures.issafrica.org/export/sites/afi/reports/pdfs/AFI-Thematic-Futures-State-Futures-in-the-Global-South_FR.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |last2=van Rooyen |first2=Michelle |title=L’avenir des États du Sud global |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=26 September 2025 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/export/sites/afi/reports/pdfs/AFI-Thematic-Futures-State-Futures-in-the-Global-South_FR.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2025lavenir, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie and van Rooyen, Michelle}, title = {{L’avenir des États du Sud global}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2025}, month = sep, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/export/sites/afi/reports/pdfs/AFI-Thematic-Futures-State-Futures-in-the-Global-South_FR.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }