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The document analyzes a structural contraction in Official Development Assistance (ODA) and a persistent under-allocation of climate finance toward adaptation. It argues that while the sector possesses the foresight to predict these trends, institutional barriers prevent this knowledge from translating into action. The paper highlights the failure of blended finance to scale in high-exposure contexts, the inability of alternative donors like China and Gulf states to replace Western ODA, and emerging risks such as the centralization of risk analytics and sovereign debt traps.

The report analyzes the evolution of state governance in the Global South, identifying a disconnect between political participation and institutional capacity. It employs a horizon scan across five domains and develops four scenarios—the Growth World, Sustainable World, Divided World, and World at War—to model potential governance trajectories. Key findings highlight the rise of hybrid governance, the destabilizing effect of extreme inequality, and the urgent need for anticipatory governance to manage systemic shocks like the global debt crisis and climate vulnerability.

The report argues that maintaining secure maritime food trade is a US national security imperative, as disruptions to key chokepoints—specifically the Suez Canal, Panama Canal, and Strait of Malacca—can trigger cascading global risks. Using a strategic foresight approach, the authors analyze four scenarios based on the uncertainty of international cooperation and port infrastructure resilience. They find that climate stressors, such as a projected global warming increase of over 2°C by 2040, threaten agricultural productivity and port operability. These vulnerabilities can be exploited by hostile actors, such as Al-Shabaab in Somalia, to weaponize food and destabilize regions. The report recommends that the US incorporate maritime food trade resilience into its National Security Strategy, invest in climate-resilient infrastructure, and revitalize flexible development assistance to prevent the erosion of soft power and protect military supply chains.

The report examines the risks associated with the renewed interest in tactical nuclear weapons (TNW) among global powers. It details three plausible use scenarios—targeting facilities, military forces in the field, or demonstration shots—and models the direct physical effects of a 20-kiloton blast. The authors argue that TNW use would trigger unpredictable international crises, erode the long-standing norm of nuclear non-use, and potentially lead to uncontrolled escalation. The paper recommends reinforcing the non-use norm and implementing risk-reduction measures to prevent the normalization of nuclear warfighting.

The report examines the evolution of state governance in the Global South, utilizing World Bank governance indicators and four global scenarios (Growth, Sustainable, Divided, and War) to project potential outcomes. It highlights a critical gap between political participation and institutional performance, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America, and warns of the systemic risks posed by rising debt, digital divides, and climate vulnerability. The analysis suggests that future state legitimacy will shift from procedural norms toward tangible performance and hybrid governance models that integrate traditional and non-state authorities.

The report examines how AI accelerates biological research, creating a 'dual-use dilemma' where tools for medical advancement can be repurposed for bioweapons. It analyzes the 'risk chain' of biological weapon development, the capabilities of foundation models and biological design tools (BDTs), and the geopolitical landscape involving the US, China, and Russia. The document proposes a 'preferred' 2030 scenario characterized by geopolitical stability and responsible AI development, offering specific US policy recommendations across biosecurity foundations, technical governance, and international diplomacy.

The African Climate Foundation outlines a strategic framework for Africa's sustainable transformation by 2030, emphasizing regional integration, green industrialization, localization, domestic capital mobilization, and governance strengthening to avoid extractive economic patterns.

The report argues that ecological disruption is an underappreciated security threat and advocates for the integration of strategic foresight tools—such as horizon scanning, futures wheels, and scenario planning—into national security architecture. It identifies land/sea-use change and global atmospheric/oceanic warming as the primary drivers of ecological instability. Through four plausible mid-century scenarios, the document illustrates how these drivers can lead to systemic collapses, such as Amazon dieback or the failure of the Lake Victoria Basin, resulting in famine, pandemics, and geopolitical conflict. The author recommends that security stakeholders shift their risk calculus to include ecological decline and prioritize locally-led, indigenous stewardship in resource management.

The document outlines key drivers of change in Asia and the Pacific, focusing on the dual nature of artificial intelligence, the risk of losing traditional ecological knowledge, and the influence of power relations on environmental outcomes. It proposes a transition away from consumerist economic models toward systems prioritizing planetary health, alongside the need for robust governance and the protection of the rights of nature and marginalized groups.

The assessment identifies the Awaso Zonal Council as the most vulnerable area in the Bibiani-Anhwiaso-Bekwai municipality due to high exposure to bushfires and droughts, combined with high sensitivity in agriculture and infrastructure. Agriculture and human health are ranked as the most vulnerable sectors, with rainfall variability and rising temperatures threatening crop yields and increasing disease prevalence. Projections indicate annual rainfall will increase to 1678 mm by 2050, while both day and night temperatures are expected to rise by 1°C by mid-century. The report recommends policy interventions including livelihood diversification, the construction of feeder roads, the implementation of early warning systems, and the promotion of climate-smart agriculture and irrigation.

The report explores South Africa's energy transition through 2050, emphasizing the need to move beyond 'used futures' and growth-centric economic models. It identifies critical innovations in governance, technology, and social values, while proposing six alternative framings—ranging from ecomodernism to the 'great simplification'—to inform policy. The analysis highlights high-impact uncertainties such as a severe skills shortage for the decarbonized economy and the 'carbon trap' of meeting rising energy demands while reducing emissions. It concludes with four diverse scenarios for 2050 and recommends a shift toward regenerative economies and inclusive multilateralism.

The report analyzes the critical minerals ecosystem in the SADC region, emphasizing the need to move beyond 'used futures'—historical patterns of colonial extraction and corruption—toward a sustainable transition. It identifies key driving forces across social, technological, economic, environmental, political, and values (STEEP-V) dimensions, such as the risk of 'resource curse' and geopolitical competition between China, the US, and the EU. Through stakeholder workshops, the authors develop four potential scenarios for 2035, ranging from 'Dawn of Empowered Transformation' to 'Shadows of Exploitation'. The document advocates for anticipatory governance, regional collaboration, and a shift toward circular economy principles to ensure that the green energy transition benefits local communities and the environment rather than perpetuating historical inequalities.

The report outlines the results of a cross-sectoral workshop that analyzed climate security scenarios for Sweden. It identifies key drivers of risk, such as the strength of democratic institutions and domestic resilience, and proposes four potential future scenarios ranging from 'Utopia' to 'Panic'. The findings emphasize that governance, trust, and the integration of climate data into the 'Total Defense' program are as critical as physical infrastructure for maintaining national security in the face of climate-driven threats.

The report outlines a strategic framework to transition South Africa's TVET system toward a green hydrogen economy (GHE). It identifies critical gaps in current vocational training, such as low throughput and poor industry alignment, and proposes a 'demand-led' model using Centres of Specialisation (CoS). Through four quantitative scenarios, the report forecasts that an 'All-inclusive Portfolio' of domestic use and exports would maximize GDP growth and TVET job creation by 2050. Key recommendations include developing a Green Skills Master Plan, implementing nano-credentialing, and reskilling workers from sunset industries like coal mining into growth sectors such as platinum mining and green steel.

The report outlines two pathway scenarios for the Norwegian oil and gas sector's transition to net-zero, developed through a 'backcasting' exercise with policy makers, businesses, and civil society. While there is general acceptance of a 2050 net-zero goal, the document notes that achieving this via a science-based approach requires deep global energy system transformations and concerted efforts from the Norwegian government and other social actors.

The report analyzes the evolution of biological weapons threats from the 1940s to the 2010s, noting a shift from battlefield utility to 'gray zone' and asymmetric warfare. It argues that the COVID-19 pandemic acts as a 'game changer' that could either drive nations toward biological weapons as a low-cost deterrent or catalyze a new era of international cooperation. The authors identify critical gaps in U.S. policy, including an over-emphasis on bioterrorism over state-based threats and declining biodefense funding, recommending a 'deterrence by denial' strategy and increased international collaboration.

The report analyzes the evolution of biological weapons threats from the 1940s to the 2010s, noting a shift from battlefield utility and strategic deterrence toward hybrid warfare and assassination tools. It argues that the COVID-19 pandemic acts as a 'game changer' that could either trigger a new era of proliferation or foster unprecedented international cooperation. The authors propose three future scenarios: one where bioweapons become a key component of deterrence, one where the world pivots toward collective biosecurity, and a hybrid world of ambiguous threats driven by disinformation. The report concludes that U.S. policy must rebalance its focus from bioterrorism to state-based threats and increase funding for biodefense.

The report examines the political shift in the DRC following President Felix Tshisekedi's creation of the 'sacred union' coalition, which granted him a parliamentary majority. While this shift provides an opportunity for electoral reform and improved security in the east, the document highlights significant tensions over the content of these reforms, the independence of the electoral commission (CENI), and whether a proposed population census is a genuine development need or a strategy to delay the 2023 elections.

The report argues that SADC's current reactive, bureaucratic, and state-centric approach to security is insufficient for the region's complex threat landscape. It proposes the adoption of anticipatory governance—a non-predictive approach using foresight and multi-stakeholder engagement—to move from reactive crisis management to proactive strategic planning. The author highlights the Cabo Delgado insurgency as a primary example of SADC's failure to act timeously and recommends a comprehensive regional security sector review and the establishment of a P/CVE unit to build adaptive capacities.

The report examines the transition from internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles to e-mobility in Southern Africa, identifying key drivers such as rapid urbanisation and falling renewable energy costs. Through four sets of scenarios, it analyses the tensions between inclusive and exclusive transitions and the role of proactive versus reactive government policy. The findings highlight a risk of increased inequality if EVs remain accessible only to the wealthy and warn of a 'brain drain' if the region fails to pivot from protecting the declining ICE manufacturing sector toward developing regional EV value chains and renewable energy infrastructure.