Understanding the Threat of Biological Weapons in a World with COVID-19

The report analyzes the evolution of biological weapons threats from the 1940s to the 2010s, noting a shift from battlefield utility and strategic deterrence toward hybrid warfare and assassination tools. It argues that the COVID-19 pandemic acts as a 'game changer' that could either trigger a new era of proliferation or foster unprecedented international cooperation. The authors propose three future scenarios: one where bioweapons become a key component of deterrence, one where the world pivots toward collective biosecurity, and a hybrid world of ambiguous threats driven by disinformation. The report concludes that U.S. policy must rebalance its focus from bioterrorism to state-based threats and increase funding for biodefense.

• Historical motivations for biological weapons have shifted from battlefield use and strategic deterrence in the 1940s-1970s toward their utility as asymmetric, covert tools for assassination and regime security in the 2010s.
• Expert survey results indicate that 'deniability' has become the most important driver for shaping biological weapons programs in the 2010s, while 'fear of retaliation' and 'difficulty of control after the release of a pathogen' remain consistent inhibitors across all time horizons.
• The COVID-19 pandemic has introduced new dynamics, including disinformation campaigns by China and Russia suggesting the virus was a U.S. biological weapon, and declarations by Iran regarding the need to increase biological defenses.
• In a projected 'deterrence' scenario, the perceived asymmetric value of biological weapons increases because the pandemic demonstrated that even low-mortality pathogens can cripple powerful economies and sideline military forces, such as the U.S. naval fleet.
• A 'hybrid world' scenario suggests that the line between biodefense and offensive programs is blurring, evidenced by a global surge in BSL-4 laboratories, with 75 such labs in operation, under construction, or planned in 30 countries by 2026.
• The report identifies three critical failures in U.S. policy: an over-reliance on bioterrorism focus due to the legacy of 9/11, a failure to leverage biotechnology for defense, and declining funding for biological weapons defense.
• The Biological Weapons Convention (BWC) is described as lacking a strong verification and enforcement regime, which allows countries to potentially strengthen clandestine capabilities while remaining treaty members.

APA

Bajema, D. N. E., Parthemore, C., Rezzonico, A., Beaver, W., Lim, D. Y.-B., & Weber, A. (2022). Understanding the Threat of Biological Weapons in a World with COVID-19. The Council on Strategic Risks. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/Understanding-the-Threat-of-Biological-Weapons-in-a-World-With-COVID_2022_2_17-1.pdf

Chicago

Bajema, Dr. Natasha E., Christine Parthemore, Andrea Rezzonico, William Beaver, Dr. Yong-Bee Lim, and Andy Weber. Understanding the Threat of Biological Weapons in a World with COVID-19. The Council on Strategic Risks, 2022. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/Understanding-the-Threat-of-Biological-Weapons-in-a-World-With-COVID_2022_2_17-1.pdf.

Wikipedia

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BibTeX

@techreport{bajema2022understanding, author = {Bajema, Dr. Natasha E. and Parthemore, Christine and Rezzonico, Andrea and Beaver, William and Lim, Dr. Yong-Bee and Weber, Andy}, title = {{Understanding the Threat of Biological Weapons in a World with COVID-19}}, institution = {The Council on Strategic Risks}, year = {2022}, month = feb, url = {https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/Understanding-the-Threat-of-Biological-Weapons-in-a-World-With-COVID_2022_2_17-1.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }