Navigating the SADC Critical Minerals Transition Towards Preferred Futures

The report analyzes the critical minerals ecosystem in the SADC region, emphasizing the need to move beyond 'used futures'—historical patterns of colonial extraction and corruption—toward a sustainable transition. It identifies key driving forces across social, technological, economic, environmental, political, and values (STEEP-V) dimensions, such as the risk of 'resource curse' and geopolitical competition between China, the US, and the EU. Through stakeholder workshops, the authors develop four potential scenarios for 2035, ranging from 'Dawn of Empowered Transformation' to 'Shadows of Exploitation'. The document advocates for anticipatory governance, regional collaboration, and a shift toward circular economy principles to ensure that the green energy transition benefits local communities and the environment rather than perpetuating historical inequalities.

• Stakeholders identified several 'preferred futures' for the SADC region by 2035, including a redesigned financial regulatory framework to increase concessional funding from banks like the AfDB, DBSA, and BRICS, and a goal for at least 50% of rural communities to achieve food, water, and energy security.
• The report identifies a significant risk that the transition may repeat 'used futures' or 'colonised futures,' where Northern governments and institutions like the World Bank encourage African countries to remain primary resource providers of unprocessed materials to benefit external economies.
• Technological advancements in the Fourth Industrial Revolution, including AI and digitalization, present a paradox: while they increase productivity, they may reduce job creation by making mining more capital-intensive.
• The report highlights five high-impact key uncertainties that will shape the region's future: geo-economic competition between China, the US, and the EU; the ability of SADC states to manage regional value chain trade-offs; the ambition of global climate policy; low-carbon technological change; and the creation of attractive investment conditions.
• Environmental risks are exacerbated by declining ore grades, which require more energy-intensive extraction and processing, potentially offsetting decarbonization gains and increasing water stress in drought-prone SADC areas.
• The report presents four potential scenarios for 2035: 'Dawn of Empowered Transformation' (revitalized institutions and social compacts), 'Shadows of Exploitation' (corruption and automated mining benefiting a few), 'The Endless Loop' (repetition of colonial extraction), and 'Illusionary Boomerang' (short-term greedflation followed by hyperinflation and instability).
• To avoid the 'status quo' of unregulated extraction and weak governance, the report recommends establishing transparent governance frameworks, investing in skills development, diversifying economic portfolios beyond minerals, and implementing the African Mining Vision (AMV) to enhance regional cooperation.

APA

CLOETE, D., JENTEL, L., MZINYATI, L., WOLF, N., BENKENSTEIN, A., & JOSEPH, A. (2023). Navigating the SADC Critical Minerals Transition Towards Preferred Futures. South African Institute of International Affairs. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Futures-CM-SR-2-Cloete-et-al-FINAL-WEB-004.pdf

Chicago

CLOETE, DEON, LETITIA JENTEL, LITHA MZINYATI, NDEAPO WOLF, ALEX BENKENSTEIN, and ADRIAN JOSEPH. Navigating the SADC Critical Minerals Transition Towards Preferred Futures. South African Institute of International Affairs, 2023. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Futures-CM-SR-2-Cloete-et-al-FINAL-WEB-004.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=CLOETE |first1=DEON |last2=JENTEL |first2=LETITIA |last3=MZINYATI |first3=LITHA |last4=WOLF |first4=NDEAPO |last5=BENKENSTEIN |first5=ALEX |last6=JOSEPH |first6=ADRIAN |title=Navigating the SADC Critical Minerals Transition Towards Preferred Futures |publisher=South African Institute of International Affairs |date=September 2023 |url=https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Futures-CM-SR-2-Cloete-et-al-FINAL-WEB-004.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cloete2023navigating, author = {CLOETE, DEON and JENTEL, LETITIA and MZINYATI, LITHA and WOLF, NDEAPO and BENKENSTEIN, ALEX and JOSEPH, ADRIAN}, title = {{Navigating the SADC Critical Minerals Transition Towards Preferred Futures}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2023}, month = sep, url = {https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Futures-CM-SR-2-Cloete-et-al-FINAL-WEB-004.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }