The South African Green Hydrogen TVET Ecosystem Just Transition Strategic Framework

The report outlines a strategic framework to transition South Africa's TVET system toward a green hydrogen economy (GHE). It identifies critical gaps in current vocational training, such as low throughput and poor industry alignment, and proposes a 'demand-led' model using Centres of Specialisation (CoS). Through four quantitative scenarios, the report forecasts that an 'All-inclusive Portfolio' of domestic use and exports would maximize GDP growth and TVET job creation by 2050. Key recommendations include developing a Green Skills Master Plan, implementing nano-credentialing, and reskilling workers from sunset industries like coal mining into growth sectors such as platinum mining and green steel.

• The 'All-inclusive Portfolio' scenario, combining domestic hydrogen use and a diverse export portfolio (fuel cells, electrolysers, green ammonia, green iron, steel, and jet fuel), is forecast to yield the highest economic impact by 2050, with GDP growth of 118% and a total of 35.2 million jobs, including 1.3 million TVET-related jobs.
• The 'Business as Usual' scenario, focusing only on platinum group metals (PGM) exports without beneficiation, results in the lowest GDP growth (96% total by 2050) and forecasts 584,536 TVET-related jobs.
• The 'Value Added Manufacturing' scenario, which focuses on PGM beneficiation into fuel-cell and electrolyser components for export without domestic use, is identified as the least desirable pathway due to the lowest TVET job gain potential.
• There is a significant timing mismatch in the mining sector transition: coal mining is projected to decline before the platinum sector booms, necessitating interim reskilling for workers in renewable energy and green steel.
• The public TVET college system faces severe efficiency challenges, including a low throughput rate of 9.2% for students in the National Certificate Vocational (NC(V)) Level 4 programme.
• South Africa's TVET system suffers from a persistent funding deficit; the 2019/20 approved enrolment plan had a funding deficit of R1.027 billion.
• Despite high female enrolment in TVET colleges, women—particularly racially marginalised women—experience higher unemployment rates than men, indicating a gap between qualifications and industry practice.
• The Centres of Specialisation (CoS) model is recommended as a demand-led approach to transform TVET colleges through dual apprenticeship models and close industry partnerships, though it currently faces scaling difficulties due to high resource requirements.
• Green iron and steel production is identified as a major potential employer in the GHE, with the possibility of supporting 918,000 jobs (including 26,600 TVET-related jobs) by 2050.

APA

Cloete, D., Grobbelaar, N., Wolf, N., Jentel, L., Schers, J., Ahjum, F., Bergh, C., Tatham, J., Hartley, F., Merven, B., Patel, M., Gewer, A., Smit, S., du Preez, M.-L., & Mbatha, Z. M. (2022). The South African Green Hydrogen TVET Ecosystem Just Transition Strategic Framework. South African Institute of International Affairs. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/SAIIA_SR_GreenHydrogenTVet.pdf

Chicago

Cloete, Deon, Neuma Grobbelaar, Ndeapo Wolf, Letitia Jentel, Jules Schers, Fadiel Ahjum, Caitlin Bergh, et al. The South African Green Hydrogen TVET Ecosystem Just Transition Strategic Framework. South African Institute of International Affairs, 2022. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/SAIIA_SR_GreenHydrogenTVet.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cloete |first1=Deon |last2=Grobbelaar |first2=Neuma |last3=Wolf |first3=Ndeapo |last4=Jentel |first4=Letitia |last5=Schers |first5=Jules |last6=Ahjum |first6=Fadiel |last7=Bergh |first7=Caitlin |last8=Tatham |first8=Julia |last9=Hartley |first9=Faaiqa |display-authors=etal |title=The South African Green Hydrogen TVET Ecosystem Just Transition Strategic Framework |publisher=South African Institute of International Affairs |date=December 2022 |url=https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/SAIIA_SR_GreenHydrogenTVet.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cloete2022south, author = {Cloete, Deon and Grobbelaar, Neuma and Wolf, Ndeapo and Jentel, Letitia and Schers, Jules and Ahjum, Fadiel and Bergh, Caitlin and Tatham, Julia and Hartley, Faaiqa and Merven, Bruno and Patel, Muhammed and Gewer, Anthony and Smit, Suzanne and du Preez, Mari-Lise and Mbatha, Zanele Mavuso}, title = {{The South African Green Hydrogen TVET Ecosystem Just Transition Strategic Framework}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2022}, month = dec, url = {https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/SAIIA_SR_GreenHydrogenTVet.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }