Event Report: Climate Security Scenarios for Sweden

The report outlines the results of a cross-sectoral workshop that analyzed climate security scenarios for Sweden. It identifies key drivers of risk, such as the strength of democratic institutions and domestic resilience, and proposes four potential future scenarios ranging from 'Utopia' to 'Panic'. The findings emphasize that governance, trust, and the integration of climate data into the 'Total Defense' program are as critical as physical infrastructure for maintaining national security in the face of climate-driven threats.

• Societal resilience in Sweden depends heavily on adaptive governance, trust in democratic institutions, and a shared information landscape, which are considered as important as or more important than physical resilience measures.
• Sweden's resilience is currently being undermined by a fractured media environment and the spread of disinformation, which increases societal divisions and complicates responses to climate hazards and migration.
• There is a critical need to integrate climate change considerations into Sweden's 'Total Defense' program and to break down silos between government ministries, such as Defense, Infrastructure, Foreign Affairs, Finance, and Environment, as well as between the public and private sectors.
• Sweden must maintain a dual-track security strategy: collaborating with international bodies like the EU, UN, and NATO for external risks, while developing a distinct domestic strategy for adaptation and resilience.
• Sustained resilience requires two transformative shifts: moving from 'just in time' supply chains to creating redundancy in energy and food systems, and prioritizing proactive strategic foresight over reactive crisis response.
• External climate security 'game changers' for Sweden include aggressive Russian and Chinese activity in the Arctic, increased humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HA/DR) demands on NATO and the EU, and political reactions to migration from the Middle East and North Africa.

APA

Sikorsky, E., & Hugh, B. (2023). Event Report: Climate Security Scenarios for Sweden. The Council on Strategic Risks. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/Climate-Security-Scenarios-for-Sweden_final2.pdf

Chicago

Sikorsky, Erin, and Brigitte Hugh. Event Report: Climate Security Scenarios for Sweden. The Council on Strategic Risks, 2023. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/Climate-Security-Scenarios-for-Sweden_final2.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Sikorsky |first1=Erin |last2=Hugh |first2=Brigitte |title=Event Report: Climate Security Scenarios for Sweden |publisher=The Council on Strategic Risks |date=February 2023 |url=https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/Climate-Security-Scenarios-for-Sweden_final2.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{sikorsky2023event, author = {Sikorsky, Erin and Hugh, Brigitte}, title = {{Event Report: Climate Security Scenarios for Sweden}}, institution = {The Council on Strategic Risks}, year = {2023}, month = feb, url = {https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/Climate-Security-Scenarios-for-Sweden_final2.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }