Preparing for Ecological Disruption

The report argues that ecological disruption is an underappreciated security threat and advocates for the integration of strategic foresight tools—such as horizon scanning, futures wheels, and scenario planning—into national security architecture. It identifies land/sea-use change and global atmospheric/oceanic warming as the primary drivers of ecological instability. Through four plausible mid-century scenarios, the document illustrates how these drivers can lead to systemic collapses, such as Amazon dieback or the failure of the Lake Victoria Basin, resulting in famine, pandemics, and geopolitical conflict. The author recommends that security stakeholders shift their risk calculus to include ecological decline and prioritize locally-led, indigenous stewardship in resource management.

• Ecological disruption is a substantial security threat that can heighten risks of pandemics, conflict, political instability, and loss of social cohesion, yet understanding of these ramifications remains nascent or nonexistent within policy and security communities.
• Land-use change and global atmospheric/oceanic warming are the two most impactful and uncertain drivers of ecological security risks. Land-use change, including agricultural intensification and resource extraction, can potentially supersede the effects of global warming in pushing specific ecosystems toward collapse.
• Ecological disruptions typically follow a cascading impact order: anthropogenic stressors cause first-order ecological degradation, which then leads to second-order impacts on natural resource availability and local livelihoods, eventually resulting in third-order consequences for human security, such as state instability and resource-driven conflict.
• The 'Green Dieback' scenario illustrates that even if global warming is limited to 1.5°C, intensified land-use change for the green energy transition (e.g., mineral extraction for renewables) could still drive the Amazon rainforest toward complete dieback by 2055.
• The 'Critical Horizons' scenario describes a worst-case future where unmitigated warming and intensified land-use lead to the collapse of the Lake Victoria Basin by 2040, triggering mass displacement, regional conflict, and a global pandemic caused by zoonotic spillover.
• In the 'Perilous Resources' scenario, adaptive land-use and nationalization of resources in the Global South may protect critical ecosystems like the Amazon, but could trigger maritime conflicts in the Arctic over new trade routes and oil reserves between 2040 and 2045.
• The 'Sustainable Adaptation' scenario suggests that limiting warming to 1.5°C and adopting adaptive land-use can reduce the number of people exposed to extreme heat by nearly half a billion, though socio-political tensions would persist due to existing global inequalities.
• To improve resilience, the report recommends that national security policymaking integrate strategic foresight, fund ecological security research, and incorporate indigenous knowledge and stewardship into land and sea management policies.

APA

Boland, L. (2024). Preparing for Ecological Disruption. The Council on Strategic Risks. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/2024/10/24/preparing-for-ecological-disruption/

Chicago

Boland, Lily. Preparing for Ecological Disruption. The Council on Strategic Risks, 2024. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/2024/10/24/preparing-for-ecological-disruption/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Boland |first1=Lily |title=Preparing for Ecological Disruption |publisher=The Council on Strategic Risks |date=24 October 2024 |url=https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/2024/10/24/preparing-for-ecological-disruption/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{boland2024preparing, author = {Boland, Lily}, title = {{Preparing for Ecological Disruption}}, institution = {The Council on Strategic Risks}, year = {2024}, month = oct, url = {https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/2024/10/24/preparing-for-ecological-disruption/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }