The Consequences of Tactical Nuclear Weapons Use

The report examines the risks associated with the renewed interest in tactical nuclear weapons (TNW) among global powers. It details three plausible use scenarios—targeting facilities, military forces in the field, or demonstration shots—and models the direct physical effects of a 20-kiloton blast. The authors argue that TNW use would trigger unpredictable international crises, erode the long-standing norm of nuclear non-use, and potentially lead to uncontrolled escalation. The paper recommends reinforcing the non-use norm and implementing risk-reduction measures to prevent the normalization of nuclear warfighting.

• Tactical nuclear weapons (TNW) are characterized as lower-yield weapons intended for non-strategic battlefield purposes, but their use would produce far-reaching strategic consequences and act as "accelerants of strategic risks."
• The report identifies three primary scenarios for TNW use: targeting critical military or infrastructure facilities, targeting massed military forces in the field, and conducting a "demonstration shot" to signal intent without intending direct destruction.
• A notional 20-kiloton (kt) TNW airburst creates three distinct zones of effect: a 1,500m radius of total destruction (fireball, blast, and ionizing radiation), a 4,000m zone of tapering damage (flash fires and shattered glass), and a downwind fallout zone extending up to 150km for ground-level bursts.
• The use of TNW would create a severe medical crisis that exceeds global capacity; for example, the US has only approximately 2,000 specialty burn beds and 300 burn surgeons, which is insufficient for the thousands of severe injuries a 20-kt blast would cause in an urban setting.
• The report argues that the traditional "ladder of escalation" concept is no longer applicable due to eroded norms, and that the first use of a TNW would break a multi-decade norm, potentially leading to the "normalization of nuclear use in the long term."
• Post-attack environments would be characterized by a "rhetorical battle" and high levels of disinformation, where attacking states may use cynical narratives to justify the strike as a "necessary and successful defense of sovereign territory" or a signal of restraint.
• International responses to TNW use are categorized into three pathways: Acceptance (acquiescence), Confrontation (calculated forceful actions), and Escalation (direct retaliatory action risking strategic nuclear use).
• The integration of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) into military systems introduces new risks, such as "preemptive behavior" or the potential for AGI to deploy TNW if deemed mission-critical without human direction.
• To reduce risks, the report recommends that states reaffirm the norm of non-use, increase transparency regarding medium-range missiles, and develop observable distinguishing features between nuclear and conventional forces to avoid "conventional-nuclear entanglement."

APA

Facini, A., & Boland, L. (2025). The Consequences of Tactical Nuclear Weapons Use. The Council on Strategic Risks. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/2025/10/23/the-consequences-of-tactical-nuclear-weapons-use/

Chicago

Facini, Andrew, and Lily Boland. The Consequences of Tactical Nuclear Weapons Use. The Council on Strategic Risks, 2025. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/2025/10/23/the-consequences-of-tactical-nuclear-weapons-use/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Facini |first1=Andrew |last2=Boland |first2=Lily |title=The Consequences of Tactical Nuclear Weapons Use |publisher=The Council on Strategic Risks |date=23 October 2025 |url=https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/2025/10/23/the-consequences-of-tactical-nuclear-weapons-use/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{facini2025consequences, author = {Facini, Andrew and Boland, Lily}, title = {{The Consequences of Tactical Nuclear Weapons Use}}, institution = {The Council on Strategic Risks}, year = {2025}, month = oct, url = {https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/2025/10/23/the-consequences-of-tactical-nuclear-weapons-use/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }