Food Trade Chokepoints & US National Security in 2040

The report argues that maintaining secure maritime food trade is a US national security imperative, as disruptions to key chokepoints—specifically the Suez Canal, Panama Canal, and Strait of Malacca—can trigger cascading global risks. Using a strategic foresight approach, the authors analyze four scenarios based on the uncertainty of international cooperation and port infrastructure resilience. They find that climate stressors, such as a projected global warming increase of over 2°C by 2040, threaten agricultural productivity and port operability. These vulnerabilities can be exploited by hostile actors, such as Al-Shabaab in Somalia, to weaponize food and destabilize regions. The report recommends that the US incorporate maritime food trade resilience into its National Security Strategy, invest in climate-resilient infrastructure, and revitalize flexible development assistance to prevent the erosion of soft power and protect military supply chains.

• Climate change is projected to significantly reduce global food production, with some models suggesting global warming could exceed 2°C by 2040. Every 1°C increase is predicted to cause an average food production decline of 120 calories per person per day, representing a 4.4% drop in recommended daily intake.
• Maritime food trade is highly dependent on a few critical chokepoints—the Suez Canal, Panama Canal, and Strait of Malacca—making the global food system vulnerable to disruptions from geopolitical conflict, extreme weather, and cyberattacks.
• Food insecurity acts as a security threat amplifier; fragile states with food-insecure populations are more prone to radicalization and conflict. Hostile actors, such as Al-Shabaab in Somalia, have used food distribution to gain support or used starvation as a weapon to undermine government authority.
• Disruptions to maritime chokepoints directly threaten US military operational readiness by delaying the delivery of fuel and food to bases abroad and impeding access to materials needed for weaponry and communication systems.
• The report identifies two critical uncertainties driving risks for food trade chokepoints through 2040: the level of international cooperation on food trade and the resilience of port infrastructure.
• The Panama Canal is a vital artery for US trade, with over 40% of US container traffic passing through it. Climate-driven droughts in Gatún Lake lead to transit restrictions and operational slowdowns, increasing global food and commodity price volatility.
• The Strait of Malacca is a critical conduit for fertilizer production and agricultural commodities, handling 43% of such goods. It is prone to congestion and is expected to exceed its capacity by the end of the decade.
• The Suez Canal handles approximately 12-15% of global trade. Recent Red Sea crises have forced rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, increasing transit times from Asia to Europe by 12 days and raising freight rates.
• A reduction in US foreign aid creates a vacuum that other geopolitical actors, such as China through its Belt and Road Initiative, are filling, which erodes US soft power and weakens multinational crisis coordination.

APA

Danon, S., Gakusi, S. N., Landa, I. P., Pan, J., & Reichle, C. (2025). Food Trade Chokepoints & US National Security in 2040. The Council on Strategic Risks. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/2025/12/16/food-trade-chokepoints-us-national-security-in-2040/

Chicago

Danon, Sarah, Saro Naomi Gakusi, Ivette Povis Landa, Jane Pan, and Claire Reichle. Food Trade Chokepoints & US National Security in 2040. The Council on Strategic Risks, 2025. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/2025/12/16/food-trade-chokepoints-us-national-security-in-2040/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Danon |first1=Sarah |last2=Gakusi |first2=Saro Naomi |last3=Landa |first3=Ivette Povis |last4=Pan |first4=Jane |last5=Reichle |first5=Claire |title=Food Trade Chokepoints & US National Security in 2040 |publisher=The Council on Strategic Risks |date=16 December 2025 |url=https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/2025/12/16/food-trade-chokepoints-us-national-security-in-2040/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{danon2025food, author = {Danon, Sarah and Gakusi, Saro Naomi and Landa, Ivette Povis and Pan, Jane and Reichle, Claire}, title = {{Food Trade Chokepoints \& US National Security in 2040}}, institution = {The Council on Strategic Risks}, year = {2025}, month = dec, url = {https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/2025/12/16/food-trade-chokepoints-us-national-security-in-2040/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }