Understanding the Threat of Biological Weapons in a World with COVID-19

The report analyzes the evolution of biological weapons threats from the 1940s to the 2010s, noting a shift from battlefield utility to 'gray zone' and asymmetric warfare. It argues that the COVID-19 pandemic acts as a 'game changer' that could either drive nations toward biological weapons as a low-cost deterrent or catalyze a new era of international cooperation. The authors identify critical gaps in U.S. policy, including an over-emphasis on bioterrorism over state-based threats and declining biodefense funding, recommending a 'deterrence by denial' strategy and increased international collaboration.

• Historical motivations for biological weapons have shifted from battlefield use and strategic deterrence against nuclear weapons in the 1940s-1970s to a focus on 'gray zone' or hybrid warfare, including use as asymmetric, covert, and assassination tools, and for regime security in the 2010s.
• Expert survey results for the post-COVID-19 era indicate that the top motivation for biological weapons over the next five years is their use as an asymmetric and covert tool, with 72% of experts ranking this as the top motivation.
• The report identifies three divergent future scenarios for biological threats: one where biological weapons become a significant component of deterrence, one where the pandemic hastens international cooperation, and a third 'hybrid world' of ambiguous threats driven by disinformation.
• U.S. biological weapons policy is criticized for three primary failures: an excessive focus on bioterrorism following 9/11 at the expense of state-based threats, a lack of plans to leverage biotechnology advantages responsibly, and declining funding for biodefense.
• The authors recommend a 'deterrence by denial' strategy, which focuses on denying an attacker success by reducing vulnerabilities through improved pandemic prevention and the deployment of advanced detection tools like metagenomic sequencing.
• The report highlights the role of disinformation in shaping biological threats, noting that China, Iran, and Russia have promoted theories that COVID-19 was a U.S.-deployed biological weapon to distract from their own activities.
• The Biological Weapons Convention (BWC) is described as having significant weaknesses, specifically the absence of a strong verification and enforcement regime.

APA

Bajema, D. N. E., Duncombe, D. R., Parthemore, C., Rezzonico, A., Beaver, W., Lim, D. Y.-B., & Weber, A. (2022). Understanding the Threat of Biological Weapons in a World with COVID-19. The Council on Strategic Risks. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Understanding-the-Threat-of-Biological-Weapons-in-a-World-With-COVID_UPDATE_2022_5-1.pdf

Chicago

Bajema, Dr. Natasha E., Dr. Ryan Duncombe, Christine Parthemore, Andrea Rezzonico, William Beaver, Dr. Yong-Bee Lim, and Andy Weber. Understanding the Threat of Biological Weapons in a World with COVID-19. The Council on Strategic Risks, 2022. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Understanding-the-Threat-of-Biological-Weapons-in-a-World-With-COVID_UPDATE_2022_5-1.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Bajema |first1=Dr. Natasha E. |last2=Duncombe |first2=Dr. Ryan |last3=Parthemore |first3=Christine |last4=Rezzonico |first4=Andrea |last5=Beaver |first5=William |last6=Lim |first6=Dr. Yong-Bee |last7=Weber |first7=Andy |title=Understanding the Threat of Biological Weapons in a World with COVID-19 |publisher=The Council on Strategic Risks |date=May 2022 |url=https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Understanding-the-Threat-of-Biological-Weapons-in-a-World-With-COVID_UPDATE_2022_5-1.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{bajema2022understanding, author = {Bajema, Dr. Natasha E. and Duncombe, Dr. Ryan and Parthemore, Christine and Rezzonico, Andrea and Beaver, William and Lim, Dr. Yong-Bee and Weber, Andy}, title = {{Understanding the Threat of Biological Weapons in a World with COVID-19}}, institution = {The Council on Strategic Risks}, year = {2022}, month = may, url = {https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Understanding-the-Threat-of-Biological-Weapons-in-a-World-With-COVID_UPDATE_2022_5-1.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }