SADC e-Mobility Scenarios: Pathways Beyond the ICE Age

The report examines the transition from internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles to e-mobility in Southern Africa, identifying key drivers such as rapid urbanisation and falling renewable energy costs. Through four sets of scenarios, it analyses the tensions between inclusive and exclusive transitions and the role of proactive versus reactive government policy. The findings highlight a risk of increased inequality if EVs remain accessible only to the wealthy and warn of a 'brain drain' if the region fails to pivot from protecting the declining ICE manufacturing sector toward developing regional EV value chains and renewable energy infrastructure.

• The transition to e-mobility in the SADC region is influenced by several certainties, including rapid urbanisation—with Africa's urban population projected to reach 1.339 billion by 2050—and a significant decrease in the cost of utility-scale solar photovoltaic electricity, which fell 69% between 2010 and 2020.
• There is a significant risk that EV adoption will exacerbate social inequality, creating a divide where affluent consumers switch to EVs for long-term savings while the poor are left with expensive-to-maintain, second-hand ICE vehicles.
• A primary barrier to EV uptake in Southern Africa is the prevailing belief that jobs in the traditional internal combustion engine automotive industry must be protected, leading the region to lag behind global trends.
• The report identifies critical uncertainties regarding the future of e-mobility, including whether the youth will prefer auto-sharing over ownership, the availability of regional charging infrastructure, and the extent to which South Africa will protect its traditional auto-manufacturing sector.
• Within the SADC region, Mauritius is noted as the only country that has invested in necessary infrastructure and provided incentives for EV adoption, while South Africa's leadership in the transition is described as reluctant.
• The report suggests that SADC member states have an opportunity to leverage their regional endowment of minerals and metals to create domestic battery value chains that integrate into the global market.

APA

CLOETE, D., GROBBELAAR, N., & BERTELSMANN-SCOTT, T. (2020). SADC e-Mobility Scenarios: Pathways Beyond the ICE Age. South African Institute of International Affairs. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Special-Report-cloete-grobbelaar-bertelsmann-scott.pdf

Chicago

CLOETE, DEON, NEUMA GROBBELAAR, and TALITHA BERTELSMANN-SCOTT. SADC e-Mobility Scenarios: Pathways Beyond the ICE Age. South African Institute of International Affairs, 2020. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Special-Report-cloete-grobbelaar-bertelsmann-scott.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=CLOETE |first1=DEON |last2=GROBBELAAR |first2=NEUMA |last3=BERTELSMANN-SCOTT |first3=TALITHA |title=SADC e-Mobility Scenarios: Pathways Beyond the ICE Age |publisher=South African Institute of International Affairs |date=December 2020 |url=https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Special-Report-cloete-grobbelaar-bertelsmann-scott.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cloete2020sadc, author = {CLOETE, DEON and GROBBELAAR, NEUMA and BERTELSMANN-SCOTT, TALITHA}, title = {{SADC e-Mobility Scenarios: Pathways Beyond the ICE Age}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2020}, month = dec, url = {https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Special-Report-cloete-grobbelaar-bertelsmann-scott.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }