SADC e-Mobility Scenarios: Pathways Beyond the ICE Age

This report by the South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA) uses 'futures thinking' and scenario-building to explore the potential adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region over a 5- to 15-year period. It identifies key driving forces—such as rapid urbanization and falling renewable energy costs—and examines the tensions between inclusive and exclusive transitions and the role of proactive versus reactive government policy.

• The SADC region faces several key certainties that will influence e-mobility, including rapid urbanization—with Africa's urban population projected to grow from 395 million in 2010 to 1.339 billion by 2050—and a significant drop in the cost of utility-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) electricity, which fell 69% between 2010 and 2020.
• Several critical uncertainties complicate the transition to EVs in Southern Africa, including the potential for youth to prefer auto-sharing over personal ownership, the extent to which South Africa will protect its traditional internal combustion engine (ICE) manufacturing sector, and whether EV adoption will be inclusive or limited to the wealthy.
• The report presents four sets of scenarios that highlight different pathways. These range from 'Happy Days', where proactive government leadership and renewable energy integration foster social cohesion and a regional EV value chain, to 'Dumping Ground' or 'ICE Age', where the region becomes a repository for obsolete ICE technology and fails to meet Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) targets.
• There is a significant risk that EV adoption could exacerbate social inequality in Southern Africa. While affluent consumers may switch to EVs as maintenance costs provide long-term savings, poorer populations may be left with expensive-to-run, second-hand ICE vehicles.
• The report notes that Southern Africa lags behind globally in EV uptake due to a strong desire to protect jobs in the ICE automotive industry. Within the SADC region, Mauritius is highlighted as the only member state that has invested in necessary infrastructure and offered incentives for adoption.
• To achieve a successful transition, the report suggests that SADC member states should leverage their regional endowment of minerals and metals to create battery value chains and shift their energy mix toward more renewable sources.

APA

CLOETE, D., GROBBELAAR, N., & BERTELSMANN-SCOTT, T. (2020). SADC e-Mobility Scenarios: Pathways Beyond the ICE Age. South African Institute of International Affairs. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Special-Report-cloete-grobbelaar-bertelsmann-scott.pdf

Chicago

CLOETE, DEON, NEUMA GROBBELAAR, and TALITHA BERTELSMANN-SCOTT. SADC e-Mobility Scenarios: Pathways Beyond the ICE Age. South African Institute of International Affairs, 2020. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Special-Report-cloete-grobbelaar-bertelsmann-scott.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=CLOETE |first1=DEON |last2=GROBBELAAR |first2=NEUMA |last3=BERTELSMANN-SCOTT |first3=TALITHA |title=SADC e-Mobility Scenarios: Pathways Beyond the ICE Age |publisher=South African Institute of International Affairs |date=December 2020 |url=https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Special-Report-cloete-grobbelaar-bertelsmann-scott.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cloete2020sadc, author = {CLOETE, DEON and GROBBELAAR, NEUMA and BERTELSMANN-SCOTT, TALITHA}, title = {{SADC e-Mobility Scenarios: Pathways Beyond the ICE Age}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2020}, month = dec, url = {https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Special-Report-cloete-grobbelaar-bertelsmann-scott.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }