20 State Futures in the Global South

The report analyzes the evolution of state governance in the Global South, identifying a disconnect between political participation and institutional capacity. It employs a horizon scan across five domains and develops four scenarios—the Growth World, Sustainable World, Divided World, and World at War—to model potential governance trajectories. Key findings highlight the rise of hybrid governance, the destabilizing effect of extreme inequality, and the urgent need for anticipatory governance to manage systemic shocks like the global debt crisis and climate vulnerability.

• There is a significant disconnect between political participation and governance capacity in some Global South regions. In Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America, relatively high scores in 'Voice and Accountability' have not led to stronger 'Government Effectiveness' or 'Regulatory Quality', a phenomenon described as 'premature democratisation'.
• Global insecurity is escalating, with state-based conflicts reaching their highest number since 1946. In 2023, 59 state-based conflicts were recorded across 34 countries, with Africa seeing its number of such conflicts nearly double between 2013 and 2023.
• The Global South is facing a structural threat from a global public debt crisis. In 2023, global public debt reached US$97 trillion; over 40% of the world's population lives in countries where interest payments exceed investments in health or education.
• Digital governance is increasingly characterized by a paradox of external dependency and internal repression. While states struggle with the influence of foreign tech platforms, there is a rising trend of state-sponsored internet shutdowns, with 296 shutdowns recorded across 54 countries in 2024.
• Inequality acts as a systemic force that undermines institutional legitimacy and social cohesion. This is evident in the 'Growth World' scenario, where states prioritize economic elites and investors, leading to 'exclusion by design' for rural and marginalized communities.
• State legitimacy in the Global South is shifting toward a 'governance as delivery' model, where citizens judge governments by tangible results rather than procedural or ideological norms. This risks creating a 'transactional form of legitimacy' that may sideline democratic accountability.
• The report identifies four potential state archetypes based on global scenarios: the 'dealmaker' (prioritizing growth and investor confidence), the 'system-builder' (focusing on resilience and inclusive reform), the 'fractured state' (characterized by hybrid, contested authority), and the 'collapsed state' (where governance is reduced to coercion).
• Climate change is a systemic stressor that forces states to balance the 'just energy transition' with economic stability. Many Global South states face a dilemma where abrupt shifts from fossil fuels could destabilize economies and fuel social unrest.

APA

Cilliers, J., & van Rooyen, M. (2026). 20 State Futures in the Global South. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/20-futures-of-the-state-in-the-global-south/

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie, and Michelle van Rooyen. 20 State Futures in the Global South. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/20-futures-of-the-state-in-the-global-south/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |last2=van Rooyen |first2=Michelle |title=20 State Futures in the Global South |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=29 March 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/20-futures-of-the-state-in-the-global-south/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2026state, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie and van Rooyen, Michelle}, title = {{20 State Futures in the Global South}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = mar, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/20-futures-of-the-state-in-the-global-south/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }