Guinea-Bissau Development Futures

The report projects that Guinea-Bissau's population will grow to 3.2 million by 2043, with a shift toward an urban-majority population. While GDP is expected to quadruple on the Current Path, extreme poverty will remain high. The report evaluates 11 sectoral scenarios, identifying agriculture and free trade as the most potent drivers for increasing GDP per capita and reducing poverty. A combined Agenda 2063 scenario suggests a potential GDP of US$16.4 billion and a significant reduction in poverty to 14.9% of the population, though this would be accompanied by an increase in carbon emissions to 1.2 million tons.

• On the Current Path forecast, Guinea-Bissau's population is projected to grow from 1.9 million in 2019 to 3.2 million by 2043, with urban residents making up 53% of the population by that date.
• The Current Path forecast predicts GDP will quadruple to US$7.3 billion by 2043, with GDP per capita rising to US$3,967. The economy is expected to transition from agriculture-dominant to service-led, with services contributing 49.5% of GDP by 2043.
• Extreme poverty (below US$1.90 per day) is projected to persist on the Current Path, with 1.4 million people (43.5% of the population) remaining below the poverty line in 2043.
• Energy production on the Current Path will remain dominated by gas (76.9% by 2043), while solar and wind energy production will increase. Carbon emissions are forecast to rise to 0.8 million tons by 2043.
• The Agriculture scenario is identified as having the highest potential for poverty reduction and GDP growth, potentially increasing GDP per capita by US$889 over the Current Path and reducing the poverty rate to 28.7% by 2043.
• The Leapfrogging scenario projects that electricity access will increase to 70.3% of the population by 2043, though a significant rural-urban gap will persist, with 55.8% of rural dwellers having access compared to 83.5% of urban dwellers.
• The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, integrating all 11 sectoral improvements, projects a total GDP of US$16.4 billion and a reduction in extreme poverty to 450,000 people (14.9% of the population) by 2043.
• Under the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, carbon emissions are projected to reach 1.2 million tons by 2043, which is significantly higher than the Current Path estimate of 0.78 million tons.

APA

Aikins, E. R. (2026). Guinea-Bissau Development Futures. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=GW&topic=current-path

Chicago

Aikins, Enoch Randy. Guinea-Bissau Development Futures. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=GW&topic=current-path.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Aikins |first1=Enoch Randy |title=Guinea-Bissau Development Futures |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=31 May 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=GW&topic=current-path |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{aikins2026guineabissau, author = {Aikins, Enoch Randy}, title = {{Guinea-Bissau Development Futures}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = may, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=GW&topic=current-path}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }