Growing exposure and uncertain rainfall trends highlight the critical need for climate resilience in Colombia and Venezuela

The study analyzed rainfall events in Colombia and Venezuela, finding that the June 2025 floods were not meteorologically extreme, with return periods of 10 and 3 years respectively. While some data suggests a slight decrease in rainfall likelihood and intensity in a cooler climate, high uncertainty remains due to model disagreement and a lack of high-quality in-situ weather data in northern South America. The report emphasizes that vulnerability is exacerbated by informal urbanization, deforestation, and socio-economic instability, necessitating increased investment in weather monitoring and climate resilience to manage both droughts and intense downpours.

• The rainfall events analyzed were not meteorologically extreme: the seasonal rainfall (April to June) over the Colombian Andes had a return period of approximately 10 years, and the 5-day heavy rainfall (Rx5day) over the Venezuelan Llanos had a return period of about 3 years.
• Comparing current events to a climate 1.3°C cooler shows a decrease in the likelihood and intensity of seasonal rainfall in the Colombian Andes by about 12%, though this estimate has large uncertainty. In the Venezuelan Llanos, a 9% decrease in Rx5day intensity was observed, although one of the three datasets analyzed showed an increase.
• Climate models show disagreement regarding trends in the study regions; for the Colombian Andes, a majority of models indicate a decreasing trend in seasonal rainfall, while models for the Venezuelan Llanos are split between showing significant drying and an increase in heavy rainfall.
• Non-climatic factors significantly increase disaster risk, including the growth of informal settlements due to rapid urbanization and conflict-driven displacement in Colombia, as well as deforestation and the conversion of Páramos to mining and agriculture, which impairs the ecosystem's ability to regulate floods.
• The study highlights a 'scientific inequality' between the global north and south, noting that the wide uncertainties in the results stem from a lack of long-term in-situ observations and the need for better investment in weather monitoring stations in northern South America.

APA

World Weather Attribution (2025). Growing exposure and uncertain rainfall trends highlight the critical need for climate resilience in Colombia and Venezuela. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/growing-exposure-and-uncertain-rainfall-trends-highlight-the-critical-need-for-climate-resilience-in-colombia-and-venezuela/

Chicago

World Weather Attribution. Growing exposure and uncertain rainfall trends highlight the critical need for climate resilience in Colombia and Venezuela. 2025. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/growing-exposure-and-uncertain-rainfall-trends-highlight-the-critical-need-for-climate-resilience-in-colombia-and-venezuela/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=World Weather Attribution |title=Growing exposure and uncertain rainfall trends highlight the critical need for climate resilience in Colombia and Venezuela |date=17 July 2025 |url=https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/growing-exposure-and-uncertain-rainfall-trends-highlight-the-critical-need-for-climate-resilience-in-colombia-and-venezuela/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{worldweatherattribution2025growing, author = {{World Weather Attribution}}, title = {{Growing exposure and uncertain rainfall trends highlight the critical need for climate resilience in Colombia and Venezuela}}, institution = {World Weather Attribution}, year = {2025}, month = jul, url = {https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/growing-exposure-and-uncertain-rainfall-trends-highlight-the-critical-need-for-climate-resilience-in-colombia-and-venezuela/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }