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The report finds that Africa is not on track to meet Sustainable Development Goal 6 (SDG 6) for universal WASH access by 2030. Using the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system, the authors analyze three paths: a 'Current Path' where few countries meet targets; a 'Universal Access' scenario requiring aggressive investment; and a 'Balancing WASH' scenario that prioritizes high-impact, lower-cost improvements. While universal access offers the highest economic and health gains, it requires an additional US$122 billion in infrastructure spending and may force detrimental trade-offs in health and education budgets. The 'Balancing WASH' approach is presented as a more realistic alternative, delivering approximately 50% of the human development benefits of universal access at only 30% of the cost (US$36 billion).

South Africa is overexploiting its water resources, with national withdrawals exceeding reliable supply. Forecasts indicate that municipal, industrial, and agricultural water demand will continue to rise through 2035, reaching an estimated 18.9 km3. Even if all large-scale reconciliation strategies are implemented, a supply gap is expected to persist. The paper argues that closing this gap requires additional measures beyond surface-water infrastructure, specifically focusing on groundwater development, wastewater treatment, and water conservation and water demand management (WCWDM).

The document analyzes the evolution of ethanol use in the U.S., noting that while E10 blends have reduced oil dependence, corn-based ethanol causes significant environmental damage and can spike global food prices. It argues for a shift toward advanced biofuels derived from wastes, agricultural residues, and perennial crops to lower lifecycle emissions and protect biodiversity. The report forecasts that by 2050, emissions from biorefineries, agriculture, and land use can be substantially reduced through technological optimization and smarter crop choices.

The report analyzes pathways for California, Oregon, and Washington to reduce transportation petroleum use by 50% by 2030. It identifies a 'Half the Oil' (HtO) Pathway that distributes reductions across travel demand management, vehicle efficiency, and alternative fuel deployment. While existing policies are projected to reduce consumption by 24% in California and 8% in Oregon and Washington by 2030, achieving the 50% target requires extending and accelerating these measures. The analysis finds that relying on a single category of strategy is insufficient to meet the target, and that Washington faces greater challenges due to a lack of enforceable alternative fuel and zero-emission vehicle policies.

The document examines sea level fluctuations in the Basque Country across geological timescales, noting a significant acceleration in the 20th century compared to the previous 7,000 years. It contrasts process-based and semi-empirical global models to project future rises, estimating that the Basque coast could see an increase of 41-57 cm by 2100 depending on the emissions scenario.

The paper evaluates Namibia's progress toward Vision 2030 and NDP4 targets using the International Futures (IFs) model. It identifies physical capital—specifically electricity, sanitation, and transportation—as the primary constraint on economic growth. Through three scenarios (Current Path, Infrastructure Access, and Leave No Namibian Out), the author demonstrates that while heavy infrastructure investment improves health and GDP, it can detract from education spending. The analysis concludes that Namibia is unlikely to meet its aggressive GDP growth and infant mortality targets by 2030, and that deep-seated structural issues like inequality and extreme poverty will persist across all modeled paths.

The report finds that wind power is already cost-competitive with imported coal, while solar power is expected to become competitive by 2019. It argues that the total cost of government support for solar energy can be reduced by 96% if the government shifts from accelerated depreciation to a policy of reduced cost, extended tenor debt. To further minimize costs, the report suggests accelerating wind deployment in the near term and ramping up solar deployment after 2019.

The analysis finds that grid-connected solar-plus-battery systems will become the lowest-cost option for many customers within 10-15 years, potentially causing massive revenue losses for utilities. In the Northeast U.S. alone, potential residential and commercial kWh sales erosion by 2030 could reach 58 million MWh and 83 million MWh respectively. The report argues that eliminating net metering or adding fixed charges only delays this outcome. To avoid a future of stranded assets and high costs for non-adopters, the authors advocate for an 'integrated grid' featuring locational and temporal pricing, performance-based regulation, and the monetization of distributed energy resource (DER) values.

The analysis finds that grid-connected solar-plus-battery systems will rapidly become cost-effective, potentially leading to significant load defection that could undermine utility revenues and create stranded assets. The report argues that the electricity system is at a 'fork in the road,' where current regulatory and pricing models will either lead to fragmented grid defection or an integrated grid where distributed energy resources (DERs) provide value back to the system.

The report analyzes the power dynamics of Africa's five most influential states, using the Hillebrand-Herman-Moyer Index (HHMI) to forecast capabilities. It finds that while Nigeria and Ethiopia are expected to increase their power capabilities, Algeria, Egypt, and South Africa are likely to stagnate or decline. The authors distinguish between raw capabilities and 'power projection,' noting that Ethiopia and South Africa currently punch above their weight, while Nigeria and Algeria punch below theirs. The analysis emphasizes that governance deficits and domestic instability often hinder the translation of material capabilities into actual regional or global influence.

The paper argues that the World Bank's target of reducing extreme poverty to below 3% by 2030 is unrealistic for most African nations. Using a revised extreme poverty line of US$1.75 (2011 PPP), the authors propose a more achievable continental goal of reducing extreme poverty to below 15% by 2030 and below 4% by 2045. The analysis emphasizes that while pro-poor economic growth provides the most immediate impact, a combined approach including social assistance, human development, and progressive social change is necessary to address chronic poverty and structural inequalities.

The paper identifies a rise in conflict events and fatalities in Africa since 2010, concentrated in five countries: Nigeria, South Sudan, Sudan, CAR, and Somalia. It uses the International Futures modelling system to project three scenarios to 2063: a 'Base Case' of continued moderate growth, an 'African Renaissance' of inclusive growth and stability, and 'Politics of the Belly' characterized by elite exploitation and instability. The authors argue that governance is the primary driver of stability and that while democratisation is a general trend, the transition period often increases the risk of violence.

The paper advocates for the use of strategic foresight and integrated policy analysis to help African governments navigate complex development trade-offs and set realistic targets. It highlights the International Futures (IFs) model as a tool for scenario analysis and evidence-based planning, using it to critique the feasibility of certain Agenda 2063 goals, such as the eradication of extreme poverty by 2030 and the 'silencing the guns' initiative by 2020. The author emphasizes that such foresight is dependent on improving the quality and availability of reliable data across the continent.

South Africa is over-exploiting its freshwater resources, with a projected widening gap between supply and demand by 2035. The authors find that the National Water Resource Strategy 2013 (NWRS2) lacks the aggressive measures needed to close this gap, which is driven by urban migration, industrial growth, and agricultural expansion. Proposed solutions include significant reductions in municipal non-revenue water, increased wastewater reuse, and expanded groundwater extraction.

The research finds that most African countries are unlikely to meet the World Bank's target of reducing extreme poverty to below 3% by 2030. Using the International Futures (IFs) model, the authors argue for a more achievable continental goal of reducing extreme poverty to below 20% by 2030 and below 3% by 2063. The paper emphasizes that poverty reduction requires a combination of pro-poor economic growth, social assistance, human development, and progressive social change, noting that policies must be tailored to individual country contexts due to varying initial conditions and poverty gaps.

The paper argues that South Africa's National Development Plan (NDP) 2030 target of 5.4% average annual GDP growth is 'very ambitious' and unlikely to be met under current trends. Using the International Futures (IFs) model, the authors find a 'Base Case' average growth of 3.4% for 2014-2030, significantly lower than the NDP target and regional peers. While the 'Highway' scenario shows that combining aggressive interventions—such as reducing corruption, curbing HIV/AIDS, and increasing foreign direct investment—could push growth above 5%, such a path requires systemic structural change. Conversely, the analysis suggests that targets for education and infrastructure are 'eminently achievable' even with lower economic growth, indicating a potential lack of integration in the NDP's sectoral planning.

The document assesses the potential for human development in the Western Cape through 2040 using the Human Development Index (HDI). The 'Base Case' forecast predicts significant improvements in life expectancy, income, and education, potentially reaching levels comparable to the UK and Austria by 2040. The brief explores three alternative policy-driven scenarios: an 'Education Push' to accelerate schooling attainment, a 'Broadband Initiative' to boost GDP through ICT infrastructure, and 'The End of AIDS' to reduce HIV prevalence and mortality. It concludes that a combined 'Accelerated Development' approach would yield the highest HDI gains through synergistic effects between health, education, and economic growth.

The document argues that road traffic accidents are a critical development issue in Africa, with fatalities forecast to rise as motorisation increases without corresponding infrastructure improvements. By comparing a 'base case' forecast with an 'improved scenario' where death rates are stabilised at the current continental average of 32 per 100,000 people, the authors estimate that Africa could prevent 4.2 million deaths and add US$ 234 billion to its GDP by 2050. The brief highlights that the economic gains, primarily driven by a larger labour force, would far outweigh the estimated costs of intervention, which range from US$ 1.7 billion to US$ 24 billion.

The report analyzes the CDM project pipeline as of April 2010, finding that procedural delays and operational risks significantly reduce the actual supply of CERs compared to original project estimates. It projects that CER supply up to 2012 may be less than half of planned amounts and evaluates scenarios for the 2013-2020 period, highlighting a heavy dependence on five dominating host countries.

The document summarizes recent emissions inventories and health studies to demonstrate that shipping emissions are growing rapidly and significantly impacting human health. It highlights a global inventory projecting a 4.1% annual growth in emissions through 2040 and a North American inventory projecting 5.9% annual growth. The text argues that current and proposed IMO regulations are insufficient to offset this growth and calls for steep, fleet-wide reductions. Additionally, it cites California Air Resources Board (CARB) data showing that premature deaths attributed to ocean-going ships in California are predicted to more than double by 2020.