Power and influence in Africa: Algeria, Egypt, Ethiopia, Nigeria and South Africa

The report analyzes the power dynamics of Africa's five most influential states, using the Hillebrand-Herman-Moyer Index (HHMI) to forecast capabilities. It finds that while Nigeria and Ethiopia are expected to increase their power capabilities, Algeria, Egypt, and South Africa are likely to stagnate or decline. The authors distinguish between raw capabilities and 'power projection,' noting that Ethiopia and South Africa currently punch above their weight, while Nigeria and Algeria punch below theirs. The analysis emphasizes that governance deficits and domestic instability often hinder the translation of material capabilities into actual regional or global influence.

• Nigeria and Ethiopia are forecast to increase their power capabilities by 2040, while Algeria, Egypt, and South Africa are expected to stagnate or decline.
• Nigeria possesses the highest power potential of any African state and is the only one with the capability to become a globally significant player or a lone superpower, provided it addresses governance and social challenges.
• There is a disconnect between material capabilities and actual influence: Ethiopia and South Africa currently project more power than their capabilities suggest, whereas Nigeria and Algeria project less.
• Africa's overall share of global power is projected to remain marginal through 2040, despite significant population growth and economic expansion.
• Ethiopia has leveraged its military through cost-efficient participation in UN peacekeeping to increase its regional influence despite having the smallest military budget of the Big Five.
• Governance acts as a mediating factor in power projection; for example, Nigeria's domestic governance deficits and internal conflicts hinder its ability to translate its economic mass into leadership.
• South Africa's influence is expected to wane in the medium term due to declining capabilities, inconsistent foreign policy, and a lack of credible leadership.
• Algeria maintains the highest military expenditure in Africa, driven largely by oil revenues, but remains focused on internal security and regional threats.

APA

Cilliers, J., Schünemann, J., & Moyer, J. D. (2015). Power and influence in Africa: Algeria, Egypt, Ethiopia, Nigeria and South Africa. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/AfricanFuturesNo14-V2.pdf

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie, Julia Schünemann, and Jonathan D Moyer. Power and influence in Africa: Algeria, Egypt, Ethiopia, Nigeria and South Africa. Institute for Security Studies, 2015. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/AfricanFuturesNo14-V2.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |last2=Schünemann |first2=Julia |last3=Moyer |first3=Jonathan D |title=Power and influence in Africa: Algeria, Egypt, Ethiopia, Nigeria and South Africa |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=March 2015 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/AfricanFuturesNo14-V2.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2015power, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie and Schünemann, Julia and Moyer, Jonathan D}, title = {{Power and influence in Africa: Algeria, Egypt, Ethiopia, Nigeria and South Africa}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2015}, month = mar, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/AfricanFuturesNo14-V2.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }