Parched prospects II

South Africa is overexploiting its water resources, with national withdrawals exceeding reliable supply. Forecasts indicate that municipal, industrial, and agricultural water demand will continue to rise through 2035, reaching an estimated 18.9 km3. Even if all large-scale reconciliation strategies are implemented, a supply gap is expected to persist. The paper argues that closing this gap requires additional measures beyond surface-water infrastructure, specifically focusing on groundwater development, wastewater treatment, and water conservation and water demand management (WCWDM).

• South Africa is currently overexploiting its water resources at a national level, meaning that total water withdrawals for municipal, industrial, and agricultural sectors exceed the levels of sustainable supply.
• Total water withdrawals in South Africa are estimated to have been 15.6 km3 in 2014 and are forecasted to increase to 18.9 km3 by 2035 under the 'Current Path' scenario.
• Municipal water demand is forecasted to exceed 8 km3 by 2035, driven by population growth, increasing GDP per capita, and expanded access to piped water, which will require 3.35 million new connections over 20 years.
• Industrial water withdrawals are expected to rise from 1.1 km3 in 2014 to 1.2 km3 by 2035, as growth in the manufacturing sector and thermo-electric power generation outweighs the mitigating effects of renewable energy and dry-cooling technologies.
• Agricultural water withdrawals, the largest sector of use, are forecasted to increase to 9.7 km3 by 2035 in the Current Path scenario, despite the National Water Resource Strategy (NWRS2) noting that additional water for irrigation is very limited.
• Planned large-scale reconciliation strategies aim to increase total system yield to 17.8 km3 by 2035, but this is insufficient to meet forecasted demand, leaving a gap of 0.57 km3 even after accounting for water conservation savings.
• Closing the water supply gap requires diversifying beyond surface-water infrastructure, as 86% of planned yield increases currently rely on dams and relocation schemes; critical needs include improving wastewater treatment, where nearly one quarter of systems are in a 'critical state'.
• Significant potential for demand reduction exists through addressing non-revenue water, as 25.4% of municipal water is lost to leaks, and 55% of municipalities lack sufficient information to assess their non-revenue water levels.

APA

Hedden, S. (2016). Parched prospects II. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/AF16.pdf

Chicago

Hedden, Steve. Parched prospects II. Institute for Security Studies, 2016. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/AF16.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Hedden |first1=Steve |title=Parched prospects II |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=March 2016 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/AF16.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{hedden2016parched, author = {Hedden, Steve}, title = {{Parched prospects II}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2016}, month = mar, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/AF16.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }