Potential Paths of Human Development in the Western Cape to 2040

The document assesses the potential for human development in the Western Cape through 2040 using the Human Development Index (HDI). The 'Base Case' forecast predicts significant improvements in life expectancy, income, and education, potentially reaching levels comparable to the UK and Austria by 2040. The brief explores three alternative policy-driven scenarios: an 'Education Push' to accelerate schooling attainment, a 'Broadband Initiative' to boost GDP through ICT infrastructure, and 'The End of AIDS' to reduce HIV prevalence and mortality. It concludes that a combined 'Accelerated Development' approach would yield the highest HDI gains through synergistic effects between health, education, and economic growth.

• The Base Case forecast predicts that by 2040, the Western Cape will see average life expectancy increase by 13 years, per capita income increase by ZAR 130,000, and expected years of education for school entrants increase by 3.5 years.
• Under the Base Case, the Western Cape's overall human capability is projected to reach levels equivalent to those of Austria and the United Kingdom in 2010 by the year 2040.
• The 'Education Push' scenario, which increases enrolment and survival rates across primary, secondary, and tertiary levels, would allow the province to reach 14.3 expected years of education by 2028, 12 years earlier than the Base Case.
• The 'Broadband Initiative' scenario, simulating aggressive fixed and mobile broadband expansion, is projected to increase the Western Cape's GDP by approximately ZAR 120 billion by 2040 compared to the Base Case.
• The 'End of AIDS' scenario, combining increased antiretroviral therapy (ART) commitment and condom use, could reduce total HIV prevalence to below 0.5% by 2040 and avert approximately 80,000 cumulative deaths.
• The 'Accelerated Development' scenario, which implements health, education, and broadband initiatives simultaneously, would result in a 2 percentage point increase in HDI over the Base Case, benefiting from synergistic feedback loops between health and education.

APA

Moyer, J. D., Neill, C., & Rafa, M. (2013). Potential Paths of Human Development in the Western Cape to 2040. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/PolBrief-FuturesCape-1.pdf

Chicago

Moyer, Jonathan D., Carey Neill, and Mickey Rafa. Potential Paths of Human Development in the Western Cape to 2040. Institute for Security Studies, 2013. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/PolBrief-FuturesCape-1.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Moyer |first1=Jonathan D. |last2=Neill |first2=Carey |last3=Rafa |first3=Mickey |title=Potential Paths of Human Development in the Western Cape to 2040 |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=2013 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/PolBrief-FuturesCape-1.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{moyer2013potential, author = {Moyer, Jonathan D. and Neill, Carey and Rafa, Mickey}, title = {{Potential Paths of Human Development in the Western Cape to 2040}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2013}, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/PolBrief-FuturesCape-1.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }