Forecasting CER supply up to 2020

The report analyzes the CDM project pipeline as of April 2010, finding that procedural delays and operational risks significantly reduce the actual supply of CERs compared to original project estimates. It projects that CER supply up to 2012 may be less than half of planned amounts and evaluates scenarios for the 2013-2020 period, highlighting a heavy dependence on five dominating host countries.

• Procedural and operational risks are expected to significantly reduce the actual supply of CERs. For the period between 2013 and 2020, the report estimates that the total supply may be reduced to 8.76 billion tons, which is approximately 52% of the 16.8 billion tons originally planned in Project Design Documents (PDDs) and initial projections.
• The supply of CERs up to the end of 2012 is projected to be only around 1.8 billion tons, or 47% of the 4.0 billion tons originally planned in PDDs and projections, due to risks at different developmental stages.
• Five primary risks are identified as influencing CER supply: protracted validation processes, high dropout rates during validation, protracted registration processes with increased CDM Executive Board (EB) interruptions, operational risks during implementation, and issuance success risks.
• The CDM market is characterized by an unequal regional distribution. As of April 1, 2010, projects hosted by Least Developed Countries (LDCs) accounted for only 0.7% of registered projects and 0.3% of total expected emission reductions up to 2012.
• A hypothetical scenario where the five dominating host countries—Brazil, China, India, Mexico, and South Korea—are disallowed from renewing crediting periods or registering new projects after 2012 would reduce the 2013-2020 CER supply to approximately 3.6 billion tons (41% of the adjusted estimate).
• HFC-23 reduction projects currently dominate the CDM market, accounting for 52% of issued CERs, but their future influence may decline due to potential methodology revisions and the low number of new projects expected to enter the pipeline.

APA

Iyadomi, K., Mizuno, Y., Koakutsu, K., Okubo, N., Urayama, C., & Takahashi, K. (2010). Forecasting CER supply up to 2020. Climate Strategies. https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/cs-cer-supply-2020-iges-final-report-01jul2010.pdf

Chicago

Iyadomi, Keisuke, Yuji Mizuno, Kazuhisa Koakutsu, Nozomi Okubo, Chisako Urayama, and Kentaro Takahashi. Forecasting CER supply up to 2020. Climate Strategies, 2010. https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/cs-cer-supply-2020-iges-final-report-01jul2010.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Iyadomi |first1=Keisuke |last2=Mizuno |first2=Yuji |last3=Koakutsu |first3=Kazuhisa |last4=Okubo |first4=Nozomi |last5=Urayama |first5=Chisako |last6=Takahashi |first6=Kentaro |title=Forecasting CER supply up to 2020 |publisher=Climate Strategies |date=1 July 2010 |url=https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/cs-cer-supply-2020-iges-final-report-01jul2010.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{iyadomi2010forecasting, author = {Iyadomi, Keisuke and Mizuno, Yuji and Koakutsu, Kazuhisa and Okubo, Nozomi and Urayama, Chisako and Takahashi, Kentaro}, title = {{Forecasting CER supply up to 2020}}, institution = {Climate Strategies}, year = {2010}, month = jul, url = {https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/cs-cer-supply-2020-iges-final-report-01jul2010.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }