THE PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE OF THE SEA LEVEL IN THE BASQUE COUNTRY

The document examines sea level fluctuations in the Basque Country across geological timescales, noting a significant acceleration in the 20th century compared to the previous 7,000 years. It contrasts process-based and semi-empirical global models to project future rises, estimating that the Basque coast could see an increase of 41-57 cm by 2100 depending on the emissions scenario.

• During the Last Interglacial stage (LIG), which peaked approximately 125,000 years ago, the sea level in the Cantabrian sea reached 4.5 m above the current mean level.
• Following the last ice age about 11,000 years ago, the Basque coast experienced an initial rapid sea level rise from approximately 27 m 10,000 years ago to 5 m 7,000 years ago, with a mean speed of 10 mm per year.
• Sea level rise in the Basque Country accelerated during the 20th century to 2 mm per year, which is four times faster than the rate observed over the preceding 7,000 years.
• Global sea level rise from 1993 to 2012, measured via satellite altimetry, was 3.2± 0.4 mm per year.
• Global projections for 2100 vary by scenario: the moderate RCP 2.6 scenario suggests a likely increase of 21-61 cm, while the pessimistic RCP 8.5 scenario estimates 53-98 cm.
• Regional forecasts for the Basque coast estimate a sea level rise of 41 cm under the intermediate RCP 4.5 scenario and 57 cm under the worst-case RCP 8.5 scenario by the end of the century.

APA

de Murieta, E. S. (2016). THE PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE OF THE SEA LEVEL IN THE BASQUE COUNTRY. Basque Centre for Climate Change. https://www.bc3research.org/h6T8Uy8Nm4gFs0O/201608050101401203068465.pdf

Chicago

de Murieta, Elisa Sainz. THE PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE OF THE SEA LEVEL IN THE BASQUE COUNTRY. Basque Centre for Climate Change, 2016. https://www.bc3research.org/h6T8Uy8Nm4gFs0O/201608050101401203068465.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=de Murieta |first1=Elisa Sainz |title=THE PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE OF THE SEA LEVEL IN THE BASQUE COUNTRY |publisher=Basque Centre for Climate Change |date=2016 |url=https://www.bc3research.org/h6T8Uy8Nm4gFs0O/201608050101401203068465.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{demurieta2016past, author = {de Murieta, Elisa Sainz}, title = {{THE PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE OF THE SEA LEVEL IN THE BASQUE COUNTRY}}, institution = {Basque Centre for Climate Change}, year = {2016}, url = {https://www.bc3research.org/h6T8Uy8Nm4gFs0O/201608050101401203068465.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }