ISS NDP Paper 15Jul1330.indd

This research paper evaluates the National Development Plan 2030 (NDP 2030) for South Africa, concluding that the target average GDP growth of 5.4% is highly ambitious and unlikely to be met without systemic structural changes. While the authors find the economic targets difficult to achieve, they argue that targets for education and infrastructure are attainable even with lower growth rates, suggesting a lack of integration in the NDP's sectoral planning. The analysis emphasizes the need to move from a consumption-driven growth model to one based on investment and improved state capability to address deep structural inequality and unemployment.

• The NDP 2030's central economic growth target of an average GDP growth rate of 5.4 per cent per annum between 2011 and 2030 is described as 'very ambitious'. The authors argue that achieving this target would require 'large and systemic change in the structure and efficiency of the South African economy', as well as aggressive government action to reduce HIV/AIDS and attract foreign direct investment.
• Using the International Futures (IFs) Base Case scenario, the expected annual economic growth rates for South Africa from 2014 to 2030 are between 3.2 and 4.5 per cent, with an average of 3.4 per cent. This is approximately two percentage points lower than the NDP 2030 target and lags behind the expected averages for sub-Saharan Africa (6.5 per cent) and the Southern African Development Community (5.7 per cent).
• The authors find that several human development targets in the NDP 2030, specifically those regarding education and infrastructure, are achievable even with economic growth rates substantially lower than the 5.4 per cent target. This suggests a potential 'lack of coherence' or 'absence of an integrated approach' in the planning of different sectors within the NDP 2030.
• South Africa's current economic growth model is characterized as 'capital-intensive', which the authors state will fail to provide enough jobs without structural changes. Within the IFs model, capital is found to contribute approximately five times more to GDP growth than labour.
• Social capital is identified as a net drag on the South African economy, currently detracting up to 0.15 per cent per year from GDP growth compared to peer countries. This is attributed to high levels of corruption and gaps in governance effectiveness.
• The NDP 2030 anticipates a decline in the manufacturing sector's contribution to GDP, from 12 per cent in 2010 to 9.6 per cent by 2030. The plan suggests that most new jobs will be found in 'domestically oriented services', a view that the authors note is contested by groups like the SACP who advocate for re-industrialisation.
• Regarding infrastructure, IFs forecasts that access to grid electricity will reach 91 per cent by 2030 (surpassing the NDP target of 90 per cent) and safe water will reach 95 per cent (just below the 100 per cent target).
• The authors highlight a significant gap in the NDP 2030 regarding the informal economy, which is estimated to employ over two million people and account for approximately 28 per cent of South Africa's GDP, yet receives 'remarkably little attention' in the plan.
• The document notes that South Africa has been in a 'middle-income trap' for over four decades, where GDP per capita fluctuates without steadily rising. Transitioning from resource-driven growth to productivity-driven growth is identified as a key challenge.

APA

Institute for Security Studies (n.d.). ISS NDP Paper 15Jul1330.indd. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/PaperAF6-V2.pdf

Chicago

Institute for Security Studies. ISS NDP Paper 15Jul1330.indd. n.d. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/PaperAF6-V2.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Institute for Security Studies |title=ISS NDP Paper 15Jul1330.indd |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/PaperAF6-V2.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{instituteforsecuritystudiesndiss, author = {{Institute for Security Studies}}, title = {{ISS NDP Paper 15Jul1330.indd}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/PaperAF6-V2.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }