HIGHWAY OR BYWAY? THE NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2030

The paper argues that South Africa's National Development Plan (NDP) 2030 target of 5.4% average annual GDP growth is 'very ambitious' and unlikely to be met under current trends. Using the International Futures (IFs) model, the authors find a 'Base Case' average growth of 3.4% for 2014-2030, significantly lower than the NDP target and regional peers. While the 'Highway' scenario shows that combining aggressive interventions—such as reducing corruption, curbing HIV/AIDS, and increasing foreign direct investment—could push growth above 5%, such a path requires systemic structural change. Conversely, the analysis suggests that targets for education and infrastructure are 'eminently achievable' even with lower economic growth, indicating a potential lack of integration in the NDP's sectoral planning.

• The National Development Plan 2030's target of an average annual GDP growth rate of 5.4% between 2011 and 2030 is considered very ambitious and difficult to achieve without systemic structural changes.
• The International Futures (IFs) Base Case scenario forecasts a much lower average GDP growth rate for South Africa between 2014 and 2030, ranging from 3.2 to 4.5 per cent with an average of 3.4 per cent.
• South Africa's projected growth lags behind its regional neighbors; the SADC average is expected to be 5.7% and sub-Saharan Africa 6.5% for the same period.
• A 'Highway' growth scenario exceeding 5% per year is theoretically possible if the government implements a combination of aggressive interventions, specifically increasing foreign direct investment (FDI), reducing corruption, and dramatically curbing HIV/AIDS transmission and mortality.
• Targets for education and infrastructure in the NDP 2030 are likely to be met even if the country experiences substantially lower economic growth than the 5.4% target.
• The current economic model in South Africa is overly capital-intensive, which hinders the creation of sufficient jobs for the unskilled labor force.
• Social capital is identified as a net drag on the South African economy, primarily due to high levels of corruption and gaps in governance effectiveness.
• The NDP 2030's focus on the formal economy largely ignores the informal sector, which is estimated to employ over two million people and account for approximately 28% of GDP.

APA

Cilliers, J., & Camp, H. (2013). HIGHWAY OR BYWAY? THE NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2030. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/PaperAF6-V2.pdf

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie, and Hanna Camp. HIGHWAY OR BYWAY? THE NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2030. Institute for Security Studies, 2013. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/PaperAF6-V2.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |last2=Camp |first2=Hanna |title=HIGHWAY OR BYWAY? THE NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2030 |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=July 2013 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/PaperAF6-V2.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2013highway, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie and Camp, Hanna}, title = {{HIGHWAY OR BYWAY? THE NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2030}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2013}, month = jul, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/PaperAF6-V2.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }